Almond Market Tightens as US Crop Shortfall Meets West Asia Trade Shock

Almond prices have risen by roughly 20% year-on-year, driven by a smaller-than-expected US crop and war-related disruptions in West Asia that are reshaping nut trade flows during peak festive demand. The current rally is unfolding into an already firm almond complex. California’s 2026 crop is now widely expected to come in below last season, while strong buying from India and logistics issues via West Asia are tightening nearby availability. At the same time, conflict in the wider region and reduced flows from Iran and Afghanistan are lifting prices across the broader nut basket, pushing buyers to adjust mixes and reduce almond grammage in gift packs rather than cutting volumes outright. For the next few weeks, the market will hinge on how aggressively importers in Asia and the Middle East restock against this higher replacement cost environment.

Prices

Retail and wholesale indications show almonds trading about 20% above last year’s levels, with the increase concentrated in the weeks ahead of Diwali as buyers scrambled to secure supply amid regional tensions. Processors and importers report that overall nut and dry fruit prices are up 25–40% year-on-year, placing almonds firmly in a bullish broader complex anchored by even stronger pistachio gains.

In the export arena, California almond prices remain well above the previous year, supported by tight inventories and expectations for a smaller 2026 crop. Market commentary points to firmer values especially for larger kernels, where smaller average sizes this season have further constrained premium grades. Buyer resistance is emerging at the margin, but so far the price response has mainly taken the form of pack-size and mix adjustments rather than outright demand destruction.

Supply & Demand

The immediate driver of the current uptrend is a confluence of supply-side shocks. In nuts overall, lower global production linked to adverse weather, higher shipping costs, and sharply reduced supplies from Iran and Afghanistan have tightened availability into Asia and the Middle East. This has coincided with the Diwali peak season, when 30–35% of annual nut and dry fruit sales are realized, amplifying the price impact.

On the origin side, California – the dominant global almond supplier – is working with a smaller crop and a more manageable carry-in. Industry estimates cluster around a 2.5–2.6 billion pound harvest, below last year’s receipts, while the official carry-in into the 2026/27 crop year has fallen to roughly 471 million pounds, a major improvement from the 800+ million pound burdens seen in recent years. Strong early-season shipments, led by India, have further reduced uncommitted stocks and left handlers less inclined to discount.

Demand remains robust despite higher prices. Indian imports hit record levels earlier in the crop year as importers rebuilt depleted inventories ahead of festivals, while niche premium segments in multiple markets continue to expand. In South and West Asia, however, disruption of traditional trade routes via Iran, Afghanistan and Gulf corridors amid conflict and the Strait of Hormuz crisis has increased transit times and freight risk, tightening prompt physical availability even when paper supply appears adequate.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals point to a structurally firmer almond market than in the oversupplied years of 2021–2023. Bearing acreage in California has stopped expanding and is starting to contract in some areas under water and cost pressure, while carry-in inventories have normalized. At the same time, early harvest progress inflated initial receipt figures, but field and processor data increasingly suggest that final production will undershoot last season.

Weather through harvest in California has been largely favorable, allowing a quick, clean crop with good quality and low rejection rates. Looking ahead into November, the main weather risk shifts to winter precipitation under an El Niño-influenced pattern, which could affect input logistics and orchard operations but is unlikely to change the 2026 crop outcome. For buyers in Iran and Afghanistan, the larger external risk remains geopolitical: regional conflict and any renewed disruption of Hormuz shipping lanes or land corridors could intermittently constrain imports and raise logistics premia, even if global almond supply is adequate on paper.

Trading Outlook

• Importers in West and South Asia: Consider covering a higher share of Q1 2027 needs now, especially for standard grades, as logistics disruptions and elevated freight from West Asia could cause intermittent tightness despite an overall balanced global crop.
• Industrial users and roasters: Optimize recipes and pack formats to protect margins – current market behavior shows that reducing grammage and shifting mixes is more acceptable to consumers than large price hikes at the shelf.
• Producers and handlers: With inventories tighter and demand resilient, avoid overly aggressive forward selling. Stagger offers and focus on premiums for large kernels and quality-sensitive segments where supply is relatively scarcer.
• Risk managers: Monitor developments in the West Asia conflict and freight markets closely; any renewed escalation around key choke points could justify additional basis and freight risk hedging even if flat prices stabilize.

3-Day Directional Outlook

Given current fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainty, almond prices across key trading hubs are expected to remain firm over the next three days. In US export offers ex-California, the tone is steady-to-firmer as sellers gauge ongoing overseas demand against a smaller crop and normalized stocks. In West and South Asian wholesale markets, including key re-export and consumption hubs that depend on flows via Iran and Gulf routes, local prices are likely to stay elevated with an upward bias, reflecting both higher replacement costs and lingering logistics risk.