Almond Prices Edge Higher as Tight Supply Meets Firm European Demand

Almond kernel prices in Spain and the US are ticking higher on both conventional and organic grades as the market digests a slightly smaller California crop and firm European demand into Q4. Spanish Marcona and Valencia varieties have followed the global uptrend, while Guara-type almonds and US Carmel remain competitively priced, supporting active nearby buying. The current rally is underpinned by expectations of a modestly lower 2026/27 California crop, smaller kernel sizing, and strong export demand, particularly into Europe and MENA. Recent industry data show high export shipments and large forward commitments, even as domestic US offtake stays subdued. In Spain, farmer-gate prices in Andalusia have trended up through mid‑September, while weather across key Spanish and Californian growing zones remains dry and seasonally warm, limiting any immediate production risk but aiding harvest progress. Overall sentiment stays moderately bullish, with buyers advised to secure nearby coverage while avoiding over-commitment at the current highs.

Prices

Spot almond kernel prices show a broad, if modest, firming pattern versus mid‑September. In the US, almond kernels Carmel SSR 18/20 FAS Washington D.C. are quoted at 6.75 EUR/kg, and Carmel SSR 20/22 at 6.75 EUR/kg, both up from 6.70 EUR/kg a week earlier. US organic natural nonpareil 27/30 FOB Washington D.C. stands at 9.40 EUR/kg, up from 9.35 EUR/kg.

In Spain (FOB Madrid), Marcona 12/14 is quoted at 6.70 EUR/kg, Marcona 14/16 at 8.30 EUR/kg, and Marcona S/16 at 8.95 EUR/kg. Valencia 10/12 is at 7.20 EUR/kg, Valencia 12/14 at 7.35 EUR/kg and Valencia +14 mm at 7.55 EUR/kg. Guara bajo 12 trades at 5.65 EUR/kg, Guara 12/14 MMS at 6.00 EUR/kg, and Guara S/14 at 6.20 EUR/kg. Spanish organic nonpareil 27/30 is indicated at 11.55 EUR/kg.

Supply & Demand Drivers

California remains the key driver of global almond pricing. A recent private forecast pegs 2026/27 California almond production at about 2.694 billion pounds, slightly below last season (−0.8%), on 1.376 million bearing acres and average yields of roughly 1,958 lb/acre. This reinforces expectations of a balanced‑to‑tighter supply environment versus the heavy crops seen earlier in the decade.

The August Position Report indicated that shipments have started the new crop year strongly, with August exports up more than 30% year‑on‑year while domestic US shipments remained weak. Total commitments of nearly 500 million pounds, only slightly below last year, point to solid forward demand, particularly from export destinations. At the same time, a higher‑than‑expected loss and exempt adjustment trimmed old‑crop carry‑in, tightening the transition between crop years.

In Spain, farmer‑gate prices for in‑shell almonds in Andalusia have been edging higher in September, with late‑blooming and Guara groups both showing week‑on‑week increases for early‑September deliveries. This confirms underlying firmness in local supply, in line with EU buyers’ interest in high‑quality Mediterranean origins despite competitive offers from California.

Weather & Crop Conditions (ES, US)

Weather across key Spanish almond regions is currently benign for late harvest and post‑harvest operations. In Aragon’s Iberian system, forecasts for Saturday 26 September 2026 call for mostly clear skies, no rainfall, and light southerly to westerly winds, with minimum temperatures steady and maximums slightly lower than recent days. Local forecasts for Zaragoza province show daytime highs around the high‑20s to low‑30s °C under clear skies through the weekend, with no meaningful rain risk.

In California’s Central Valley, 10‑day regional forecasts for representative inland locations indicate warm, dry conditions into late September, with daytime highs in the upper‑20s to low‑30s °C and negligible precipitation. This supports rapid completion of shaking and pickup, with low immediate risk from rain‑related quality losses. Overall, current weather patterns in both Spain and the US are mildly price‑negative from a risk perspective, as they favor smooth harvest flows, but they also help confirm the smaller‑sizing narrative in California that has already been priced into the market.

Fundamentals & Price Implications

Fundamentally, the combination of a slightly smaller California crop, elevated export shipments, and reduced carry‑in suggests a market transitioning from oversupply to closer balance. Private and industry analyses in early September highlight nine consecutive weeks of price gains on the back of these factors and tighter seller offers, especially for larger sizes and premium grades.

Spanish and wider EU demand appears resilient, with local quotations in Andalusia and Spanish FOB kernel prices moving gradually higher through September. Port‑side US prices and USDA terminal‑market indications in the US Northeast confirm firm wholesale levels for California almonds, with notes of “offerings light” and a steady to slightly higher undertone. Against this backdrop, the modest week‑on‑week increases seen in both US and Spanish kernel prices look fundamentally justified rather than speculative.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

Trading Outlook

• Importers in Europe and MENA: Consider securing Q4–Q1 coverage on core specifications (Carmel SSR and Valencia/Marcona types) at current levels, focusing on staggered purchases rather than large single‑lot commitments, as near‑term upside risk remains while harvest weather is benign.
• Industrial buyers and roasters: Prioritize booking premium and organic grades (nonpareil, Marcona, organic nonpareil) early, as smaller kernel sizing in California and solid Mediterranean demand are likely to keep these differentials firm.
• Producers and sellers in Spain and the US: Maintain a slightly patient selling strategy on quality lots; avoid aggressive forward discounting given the tighter global balance and evidence of strong export interest, but remain flexible on second‑tier sizes where competition is stronger.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (ES, US)

• Spain (FOB Madrid, kernels): With stable, dry weather and firm farmer‑gate prices, Spanish Marcona, Valencia and Guara kernel indications are likely to remain steady to slightly firmer over the next 3 days.
• US (FAS/FOB Washington D.C., kernels): In light of tight export offers and no weather‑related harvest disruptions, US Carmel and organic nonpareil kernel prices are expected to stay firm to mildly higher in the very short term.