Almond Prices Slide Despite Tighter Crop: India Weakens, Origins Hold

Almond kernel prices are softening in India even as global production growth slows, underlining the weight of selling pressure and imported stocks on the near-term market. The latest reports from New Delhi show almond kernels trading below ₹1,000/kg, a significant break lower that comes in spite of lower output in key producing regions such as Australia. This disconnect between supply concerns and spot prices points to heavy availability in the pipeline, cautious demand, and active selling in the broader dry-fruit complex. At the same time, benchmark offers from the US and Spain in EUR terms remain broadly steady, suggesting that the current pressure is driven more by local demand and inventory factors in India than by a collapse in global origin values.

Prices

Almond kernel prices in the New Delhi dry-fruit market have weakened sharply, with spot levels now quoted below ₹1,000/kg despite ongoing narratives of tighter production. This marks a clear shift in sentiment, as earlier supply worries have failed to translate into lasting price support. Indian mandi data from Maharashtra still show a broad range between roughly ₹975–₹1,150/kg across reporting markets, underscoring that the New Delhi break is driven by strong selling pressure rather than an across-the-board collapse in domestic values. By contrast, quoted origin prices in EUR remain stable. Recent indications include: These quotes have been essentially flat since late September, reinforcing the view that the latest leg down in India is locally driven rather than a signal of fresh weakness at origin.

Supply & Demand

Market commentary from India highlights lower production in major supplying regions, including Australia, yet this has not prevented a slide in kernel prices. For global balances, the key origin remains California, where the 2026 harvest is largely complete under generally favorable weather, with industry estimates clustering around 2.5–2.6 billion pounds and quality reported as good. California’s bearing acreage has started to contract for the first time in decades, pointing to a gradual tightening bias in medium‑term supply, even if current crop volumes remain substantial. At the same time, Australia’s 2025/26 crop is projected to be sizeable, adding to export availability into Asia and the Middle East. Lower production growth in some regions is thus offset by healthy stocks and strong export programs from California and Australia. On the demand side, global usage remains broadly constructive, with strong export demand reported from the US industry so far in the 2026/27 crop year. However, in India the combination of pre‑festival stocking, sufficient imported inventory and cautious consumer spending appears to be capping near‑term buying interest. Traders in New Delhi are closely watching container arrivals and the pace of festive-season offtake to gauge whether the market can absorb existing supplies at current price levels.

Fundamentals & Weather

Recent US industry analysis notes that almond prices at origin remain well above last year’s levels, supported by tighter inventories, robust exports and expectations for a smaller California crop. Buyer resistance, however, increased in late September, indicating that downstream markets are sensitive to further price appreciation. This helps explain why Indian prices, facing strong local supply and competition among sellers, are under pressure even as origin values remain firm. Weather conditions in California’s Central Valley have been broadly favorable into the end of harvest. Warm, dry weather dominated September, aiding field operations, and a brief early‑October heat episode has since faded, with temperatures now back near seasonal norms and no meaningful rain in the short‑term forecast. Weather risk for the remainder of harvest is assessed as low, keeping near‑term supply risk limited. The next key weather focus will be winter precipitation, which will shape water availability and yield potential for the 2027 crop. In India, the key fundamental tension is between the narrative of lower global production and the visible availability in the domestic pipeline. Imported stocks, ongoing container arrivals and aggressive selling in the wider dry-fruit segment are outweighing production concerns. Until these inventories are drawn down—potentially through stronger festive-season demand—the market is likely to struggle to sustain any rebound.

Outlook & Trading Guidance

• Short-term (next 1–3 weeks): Indian almond kernel prices are likely to remain under downward or sideways pressure as selling continues and traders test how much demand can be stimulated by lower prices. Any stabilization will depend on better-than-expected festive-season offtake and a slowdown in new arrivals.
• Medium-term (into Q1 2027): If confirmed lower production in Australia and a smaller California crop gradually tighten export availability, origin prices may stay supported, limiting further downside in EUR‑denominated offers even if consumer markets remain cautious.
• Risk factors: A weaker demand environment in key importers or an acceleration of exports from major origins could keep pressure on destination markets. Conversely, weather setbacks over winter in California or logistical disruptions could quickly shift sentiment back to the upside.

Indicative 3‑day directional view

• India (New Delhi kernels): Bias mildly down/sideways as selling pressure persists and buyers remain selective.
• US origins (carmel, nonpareil offers in EUR): Bias sideways; recent quotes around 6.75–9.40 EUR/kg FAS/FOB have been stable, with limited near‑term catalysts for sharp moves.
• EU (Spanish Marcona/Valencia, FOB Madrid): Bias sideways to slightly firm given steady EUR pricing and no immediate supply shock.