Almonds: Exports Power the Rally While Domestic Demand Lags

California almonds are entering the new crop year with stronger-than-expected exports, a smaller crop outlook and firm but slightly easing prices, while US domestic demand and Europe remain the key weak spots. Receipts are front‑loaded by an early harvest, yet yields confirm a lighter crop than last year, keeping the medium‑term balance constructive. Global trade flows are being reshaped by India’s exceptional buying and robust demand from China/Hong Kong and other Asian markets, offsetting the slump in US offtake. At the same time, European buyers are pushing back against higher prices and a weaker euro, and a swollen uncommitted inventory is tempering further upside. Against this backdrop, nearby prices are holding firm to slightly softer, with the market highly sensitive to any shift in export momentum or winter weather risks in California.

Prices

Price indications remain firm but have edged slightly lower over the last few weeks as strong exports compete with heavy early-season availability and buyer resistance in some regions.

• US origin almond kernels, carmel SSR 18/20, FAS Washington D.C., are quoted at EUR 6.65, down from EUR 6.70.
• US origin almond kernels, carmel SSR 20/22, FAS Washington D.C., stand at EUR 6.70, down from EUR 6.74.
• US organic natural nonpareil SSR 27/30, FOB Washington D.C., is indicated at EUR 9.30, down from EUR 9.35.
• Spanish Marcona 12/14, FOB Madrid, trades around EUR 6.61, slightly below prior EUR 6.66, with larger Marcona S/16 at EUR 8.85.
• Spanish Valencia 10/12, FOB Madrid, is at EUR 7.10, with Valencia 12/14 at EUR 7.25 and premium Valencia >14 mm at EUR 7.45.

This mild price softening reflects heavy uncommitted stocks and pushback from Europe and parts of the domestic market, even as export demand from India and Asia stays very strong.

Supply & Demand

September receipts reached 1.22 billion lbs, up 22.5% year-on-year, driven by an early and compressed harvest with hullers processing faster than usual. Despite this front‑loaded intake, California industry expectations center on a 2.5–2.55 billion lb crop, below last year’s 2.693 billion lbs, as pollinator yields underperform.

Shipments tell a more bullish story. Total September shipments of 232 million lbs exceeded trade expectations of 215 million lbs and rose 17.9% year-on-year. Export shipments surged to 189.17 million lbs (+28.0%), while domestic shipments dropped to 43.37 million lbs (‑12.4%), the weakest September domestic figure in more than a decade and a clear sign of structural softness at home.

India and China/Hong Kong are currently the key engines of demand. India’s September buying jumped 136% year-on-year, following depleted inventories at the end of the previous crop year and heavy pre‑festival restocking, while China/Hong Kong imports more than doubled. Strong gains also came from South Korea (+56%), Japan (+13%) and Turkey (+43%), whereas Western Europe saw a 12% shipment decline versus last year as higher landed prices and a weaker euro squeezed demand.

Fundamentals

On the sales side, current crop September sales reached 264.33 million lbs, up 20.4% from last year, underscoring solid forward demand at today’s price levels. However, current crop commitments of 529.22 million lbs are still 3.6% below last year, suggesting some buyers are delaying coverage.

Uncommitted 2026 crop inventory stands at a hefty 709.99 million lbs, 28.5% above last year. This overhang is a key counterweight to the smaller crop narrative and is one reason nearby prices have softened marginally despite constructive shipment data. Export strength must therefore be sustained to prevent inventory from capping the market.

Structurally, the balance is tightening compared with recent oversupplied years. A smaller California crop, lower carry‑in and continued strength in Asian demand (particularly India and emerging Southeast Asian hubs) support a firmer medium‑term outlook. Yet weak domestic demand and cautious European buying, amplified by higher dollar‑denominated prices and currency headwinds, keep the market from breaking convincingly higher for now.

Weather & External Factors

Harvest weather in California has so far been favorable, enabling the rapid pace of receipts reported in September. Looking ahead into November and early winter, forecasters highlight increased precipitation risks linked to El Niño, which could influence bloom and nut set if conditions turn excessively wet or cool later in the season.

Beyond weather, macro factors matter. Higher global interest rates and tighter credit conditions continue to encourage just‑in‑time purchasing, especially in Europe. At the same time, the euro’s roughly 5% weakening against the US dollar has raised landed costs for European importers, making them more price‑sensitive and inclined to shorten coverage, even as Asia absorbs a larger share of California’s exportable surplus.

Trading Outlook

• Industry / handlers: With a smaller crop outlook but elevated uncommitted inventory, consider a balanced sales program: reward strength driven by India and Asia while keeping some length in case domestic demand stabilizes or weather issues emerge later in the season.
• Roasters and processors (US/EU): Near‑term price dips offer opportunities to secure coverage into the first half of 2027, especially for premium Nonpareil and larger sizes, which could see tighter availability if export demand remains strong.
• Importers in India and Asia: After heavy pre‑festival buying, a short consolidation in demand is likely. Avoid over‑extending long positions but use any correction from profit‑taking or stronger US dollar phases to rebuild inventory for post‑festival and Ramadan/Eid demand.
• European buyers: Given currency and price headwinds, a staggered, hand‑to‑mouth strategy remains prudent, but consider lifting coverage modestly if evidence of sustained export strength or adverse California winter weather appears.

3‑Day Price & Directional View

• US, FAS Washington D.C. (carmel kernels): Prices around EUR 6.65–6.70 are expected to hold broadly steady with a slight firm bias if export inquiries stay active.
• US, FOB Washington D.C. (organic Nonpareil): Around EUR 9.30, likely stable with limited downside as premium demand remains resilient.
• Spain, FOB Madrid (Marcona & Valencia): Light downward adjustment has likely run its course near EUR 6.61–7.45; expect a mostly sideways market as buyers reassess post‑festival demand and currency dynamics.