Almonds: Strong Shipments Meet Smaller Crop and Softer Prices
California almond shipments are up 11%, crop forecasts edge down, and prices soften slightly as demand cools in Europe and India post‑Diwali.
California almonds face a tightening medium-term balance: shipments are running 11% above last year while the crop is now expected around 2.5–2.55 billion lbs, below earlier ideas, yet prices have softened slightly as near-term demand cools.
October data confirm a well-sold industry supported by robust exports to India and Pakistan, early harvest progress and firm November shipment books, even as Europe and the Middle East lag. At the same time, international reference prices in both California and Spain have eased modestly in early November, reflecting profit-taking after the recent rally and a post‑Diwali pause in Indian kernel demand. First meaningful rains are due in California’s Central Valley, but with harvest largely complete, weather is now more about water outlook than yield risk.
Prices
Physical almond prices show a mild downward correction rather than a structural break. U.S. Carmel SSR 18/20 almond kernels FAS Washington D.C. are quoted at EUR 6.65/kg, down from EUR 6.70/kg, while Carmel SSR 20/22 stands at EUR 6.70/kg versus EUR 6.74/kg previously. Organic Nonpareil 27/30 FOB Washington D.C. is indicated at EUR 9.30/kg, slightly below EUR 9.35/kg.
In Spain, FOB Madrid prices also reflect gentle softening: Marcona 12/14 is at EUR 6.61/kg (from EUR 6.66/kg), Valencia 12/14 at EUR 7.25/kg (from EUR 7.30/kg) and Guara 12/14 MMS at EUR 5.90/kg compared with EUR 5.95/kg. This aligns with recent reports that the earlier price rally has paused as Indian demand cools following Diwali while global supply remains comparatively tight.
| Origin / Type | Delivery term | Current price (EUR/kg) | Previous price (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Carmel SSR 18/20 | FAS Washington D.C. | EUR 6.65/kg | EUR 6.70/kg |
| US Carmel SSR 20/22 | FAS Washington D.C. | EUR 6.70/kg | EUR 6.74/kg |
| US Nonpareil 27/30 organic | FOB Washington D.C. | EUR 9.30/kg | EUR 9.35/kg |
| ES Marcona 12/14 | FOB Madrid | EUR 6.61/kg | EUR 6.66/kg |
| ES Valencia 12/14 | FOB Madrid | EUR 7.25/kg | EUR 7.30/kg |
| ES Guara 12/14 MMS | FOB Madrid | EUR 5.90/kg | EUR 5.95/kg |
Supply & Demand
October California shipments reached 250.6 million lbs, essentially flat year-on-year (249.2 million lbs). Domestic shipments slipped 0.6% to 48.0 million lbs, while exports edged 0.8% higher to 202.9 million lbs, reinforcing the export-led nature of demand. Year-to-date shipments now total 673.2 million lbs, up 11.42% from 604.2 million lbs a year ago, confirming a strong start to the marketing year.
On the supply side, crop receipts stand at 1.896 billion lbs versus 1.698 billion lbs last year, an 11.68% increase that mainly reflects an early, fast harvest without rain disruptions. Most industry participants now peg the crop at 2.5–2.55 billion lbs, down from the earlier 2.7‑billion‑lb expectation and slightly below some independent 2.6‑billion‑lb trade estimates, pointing to a tighter underlying balance over the season.
Regionally, demand is uneven. Shipments to India in October climbed to 52.3 million lbs versus 28.2 million lbs last year, and Pakistan surged to 11.8 million lbs from 1.9 million lbs as trade routes shifted to more direct flows. By contrast, Spain dropped to 9.4 million lbs from 19.0 million lbs, and Turkey also weakened. Overall European shipments are down 13% so far this season after many buyers covered early from Spanish origin, while the Middle East is down 8%, reflecting conflict-related logistics constraints.
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Fundamentals & Market Structure
New October sales reached 247.6 million lbs, below last year’s 261.8 million lbs and indicating some cooling in short-term buying appetite after the strong early-season run. Even so, the industry is now 40.4% sold on carry-in plus crop, based on a 2.55‑billion‑lb crop assumption. This means California is about 3.1% more sold than at the same time last year, underlining that a large share of supply is already committed.
Call‑pool growers are reportedly further sold than in recent seasons as cash flow needs encouraged forward selling during the earlier price strength. With shipments up 11.42% year-on-year while the crop is forecast to be almost 150 million lbs smaller than last season, the market is structurally well sold despite current price softness. Recent external analyses corroborate this picture: export demand, particularly to India, has been exceptional through September and October, while domestic U.S. offtake and parts of Europe remain comparatively weak.
Weather & Logistics
California is expected to see its first meaningful autumn rains entering the Central Valley from Friday onward. With harvest already described as early, fast and essentially rain-free, these systems primarily influence soil moisture, reservoir recharge and 2027 water allocations rather than the 2026 crop outcome. Current El Niño conditions imply an active winter pattern, but timing and distribution remain uncertain.
Logistically, the Middle East continues to experience shipment challenges linked to regional conflict, contributing to an 8% decline in shipments to the region compared with last year. Elsewhere, earlier harvest and improved availability of export-ready product have helped California handlers serve strong early-season export programs, especially to India and Pakistan, partly offsetting regional bottlenecks.
Outlook & Trading Ideas
Packers report that November shipments “on paper” look outstanding, and attention is now turning to filling December production schedules. With the industry well sold, a smaller-than-expected crop, and strong year-to-date exports, the medium-term bias for prices remains moderately constructive, even if the near-term tone is softer due to post‑Diwali demand easing and slower European buying.
Trading outlook
- Importers / industrial buyers: Use the current mild price dip to cover near- to medium-term needs, especially for core Nonpareil and Carmel specifications, but avoid overextending coverage given still-uneven regional demand.
- Packers / handlers: Given a well-sold position and a smaller crop, maintain price discipline on remaining unsold volumes; prioritize higher-margin specs and destinations with proven pull such as South Asia.
- Growers: With call‑pool positions already advanced, consider a measured approach to any remaining unsold crop, balancing cash needs against the potential for firmer prices later if shipments stay strong and European demand normalizes.
3-day directional price indication
- California kernels (Carmel, Nonpareil): Slight downside to sideways bias as markets digest the latest Position Report and Indian demand pause.
- Spanish kernels (Marcona, Valencia, Guara): Sideways to marginally weaker, tracking softer international benchmarks and comfortable local coverage.
- South Asia destinations: Local kernel prices in India likely to remain under mild corrective pressure over the next few days after heavy Diwali buying, but downside appears limited by tighter global supply.