Cashew Market Holds Firm as Tanzania Ships and African Processors Advance

Global cashew prices remain under upward pressure as raw cashew nut (RCN) values stay elevated, while kernel demand is uneven across key consuming regions. Processors, especially in Vietnam, are protecting thin margins by buying cautiously, even as African origins step up both RCN exports and kernel processing, increasing competition. The market is currently shaped by strong Tanzanian auction volumes, tighter expectations for Mozambique’s new crop and seasonal demand patterns in India. India’s festive buying has supported W320 and broken grades, but demand in Europe and Japan remains subdued, tempering price upside. At the same time, Türkiye and Canada are expanding imports, with African processors gaining market share. Near term, the balance between high raw nut costs and patchy kernel consumption suggests a firm but not aggressively bullish price environment.

Prices

RCN prices across key origins remain relatively high, limiting processing margins. Recent indications include Côte d'Ivoire RCN around US$1,395 per tonne CNF Ho Chi Minh City for 42 lb outturn/210 count, with offers from Indonesia near US$1,805, Mozambique US$1,760 and Tanzania about US$1,960 per tonne depending on quality. Elevated replacement costs are keeping processors wary of large spot purchases.

On the kernel side, Vietnamese FOB offers are reported around US$4.50–4.60 per lb for W180, US$4.10–4.40 for W210, US$3.55–3.60 for W240 and US$3.13–3.35 for W320. Broken grades such as white splits are quoted near US$2.60–2.80 per lb, with large pieces at US$1.90–2.20 and small pieces at US$1.40–1.60, underlining ongoing demand from food manufacturers.

Supply & Demand

Tanzania’s 2026/27 marketing season is providing crucial RCN flow. Deliveries to warehouses have surpassed 200,000 tonnes, with auction sales reaching roughly 189,060 tonnes and 38 companies bidding, 31 of which secured volumes. Most lots show strong quality with 48–54 lb outturn ratios, and exports via Mtwara are scheduled from early November. Freight rates from Mtwara to Mangalore are reported near US$87 per tonne for bulk and US$98 per tonne for containers.

Weather in southern Tanzania (Mtwara and Lindi) is transitioning into the main rainy period, with forecasts for early November pointing to light rainfall episodes rather than prolonged storms, broadly favourable for harvesting and port logistics in the short term. Seasonal outlooks for November 2026 to April 2027 call for above-normal to normal rains in the southeast, warning of possible heavy events but still broadly supportive of cashew production when managed carefully.

Mozambique’s new crop is emerging as a potential tightness factor. Port stocks are currently estimated at only 15,000–18,000 tonnes, and indicative RCN prices have risen by about US$130–150 per tonne within two weeks, with average quality slightly below last season at about 47 lb outturn. Production is now expected to slip below the earlier 200,000‑tonne forecast, adding further cost pressure for international processors reliant on this origin.

On the demand side, India has just passed its Diwali peak, with strong interest focused on W320 and broken grades for sweets and snacks. Around 20,000 tonnes of imported RCN (mainly Guinea‑Bissau and Senegal) are reported in warehouses near Tuticorin, and further Tanzanian arrivals are imminent. After festive demand, a short lull is expected before wedding‑season buying revives, particularly for W320 and broken kernels, which are already supported by tight stocks and high replacement costs.

Fundamentals & Regional Trade Shifts

Vietnamese processors remain cautious buyers, as RCN prices from Tanzania, Indonesia and Guinea‑Bissau allow only thin or unattractive processing margins. This is occurring just as African processing plants ramp up, redirecting part of the raw nut stream away from export and into local kernel production. Vietnam has nonetheless imported about 119,143 tonnes of kernels with skin in January–September 2026, up over 41% year‑on‑year, underlining its evolving role as both a processing and redistribution hub.

In finished kernels, India retains a clear price premium. As of 2 November, Indian W240 averaged about US$4.20 per lb FOB, versus US$3.57 for Vietnam and US$3.77 for African origins. For W320, India was around US$4.00 per lb, compared with US$3.24 in Vietnam and US$3.45 from Africa. These differentials reflect origin reputation, quality perception and strong domestic demand, and they limit the ability of cheaper origins to lift prices aggressively while consumer markets in Europe and Japan are cautious.

Destination demand is increasingly segmented. Japan’s August 2026 kernel imports fell nearly 19.5% year‑on‑year to about 1,025 tonnes, with value down more than 22% and average import prices slipping to roughly US$7,498 per tonne, highlighting subdued consumption despite lower prices. By contrast, Türkiye’s imports for January–August 2026 rose around 8.1% to 25,515 tonnes, with value up 13.3% and average import prices higher by 4.8%, led by Vietnamese supply but with meaningful contributions from Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania.

Canada’s market also shows a quiet shift toward African kernels. While overall import value for January–August 2026 rose about 5% to US$63.35 million, Vietnamese origin still dominates at roughly US$51.85 million. However, Canadian imports from Côte d’Ivoire surged by about 168% to US$7.22 million, and Tanzanian shipments also grew strongly from a low base. This underscores that African processing expansion is translating into tangible market share gains in high‑income destinations.

Weather & Logistics Outlook

For the coming 1–2 weeks, forecasts for Mtwara and Lindi indicate warm, humid conditions with scattered light showers rather than continuous heavy rainfall, allowing harvesting and port operations to continue with limited disruption. Seasonal projections for November 2026–April 2027 suggest above‑normal to normal rainfall in much of southern Tanzania, which may enhance tree‑crop yields but also raises medium‑term risks of localized flooding, road issues and quality challenges if wet conditions coincide with peak harvest or drying stages.

Internationally, freight conditions remain sensitive to broader Red Sea and Middle East security dynamics, encouraging some Middle Eastern buyers to concentrate on nearby or short‑lead‑time shipments instead of long forward positions. Nonetheless, cashew trade flows via East Africa and Asia are currently functioning, with the main constraint coming from high raw material costs rather than outright logistics bottlenecks.

Market Forecast & Trading Outlook

In the near term, the global cashew market is likely to stay relatively firm. High RCN prices in Tanzania and Mozambique, plus reduced Mozambican crop expectations, underpin raw material values, while India’s post‑Diwali slowdown and weak European and Japanese buying cap kernel upside. As Tanzanian exports progress and more supply becomes visible, some stabilization is possible, but any notable decline in RCN prices appears unlikely without a clearer demand shock.

Medium‑term, growing African processing capacity should gradually rebalance trade flows, with more kernels exported directly from Africa and fewer raw nuts shipped to Vietnam and India. Combined with planned consumption‑promotion campaigns in Southeast Asia and ongoing product innovation, this could support incremental demand growth, particularly in emerging markets. However, uneven regional economic conditions and changing consumer spending in mature markets will remain key swing factors for premium whole grades.

Focused Trading Recommendations

• Kernel buyers: For W320 and broken grades, consider staggered coverage through Q1 2027 rather than waiting for significant price corrections; high RCN costs and limited stocks in India suggest downside is limited in the short run.
• RCN importers: Manage exposure to Mozambican origin carefully given rising prices and sub‑200,000‑tonne crop expectations; Tanzanian auctions currently offer better volume availability but at firm price levels.
• Processors in Vietnam and India: Preserve margins by prioritizing higher‑value kernel segments and origin differentials; African kernels are intensifying competition in mid‑range grades, so efficiency and product differentiation will be crucial.
• End‑users in Europe and Japan: Use the current period of subdued demand to secure competitive medium‑term contracts, especially from African and Vietnamese suppliers seeking to defend market share.

3‑Day Directional Outlook

• Vietnam, FOB Hanoi (WW240/WW320): Stable to slightly firm over the next three days, supported by elevated RCN offers and cautious processor selling.
• India, FOB New Delhi (W320/W240): Steady at a premium to other origins; minor softening in select whole grades possible as post‑Diwali demand cools, but broken grades likely remain supported.
• Europe, FCA Dordrecht (WW320 and industrial grades): Mostly stable; any incremental firmness is more likely to come from replacement cost dynamics rather than immediate shifts in local demand.