Cashew Market Holds Firm as Tanzanian Crop Sets the Tone and Margins Tighten
Global cashew prices stay range-bound as firm Tanzanian RCN, tight processor margins and shifting African trade flows reshape supply and demand.
Prices & Differentials
According to the latest industry assessments, global RCN markets remain relatively expensive, while cashew kernel prices are trading in a tight band by recent standards. Tanzanian standard-grade RCN with kernel outturns between 48 and 53.1 lbs has been reported around US$1,200–1,250/tonne at auction, with higher-quality 53 lb lots for Vietnam quoted near US$1,960/tonne CNF Ho Chi Minh City. Indonesian origins are discounted but still firm, around US$1,690–1,720/tonne depending on specification.
Finished-kernel prices in Vietnam are comparatively stable: recent FOB indications show W320 around US$3.15–3.40/lb and W240 at US$3.55–3.70/lb, with W180 and W210 at higher premia. Processors report that these kernel values have not fully kept pace with raw material inflation, compressing crushing margins. Parallel indications from other trade sources confirm that whole kernels, particularly W240 and above, have been edging higher into early November on the back of firm demand and expensive inputs.
| Origin / Location | Grade | Delivery term | Current price (EUR/kg) | Previous price (EUR/kg) | Update date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam – Hanoi | Cashew kernels WW240 | FOB | EUR 8.15/kg | EUR 8.15/kg | 2026-11-05 |
| Vietnam – Hanoi | Cashew kernels WW320 | FOB | EUR 7.25/kg | EUR 7.25/kg | 2026-11-05 |
| India – New Delhi | Cashew kernels W320 | FOB | EUR 7.15/kg | EUR 7.15/kg | 2026-11-05 |
| India – New Delhi | Cashew kernels brownish white, W240 | FOB | EUR 7.65/kg | EUR 7.65/kg | 2026-11-05 |
| Netherlands – Dordrecht | Cashew kernels WW320 | FCA | EUR 5.25/kg | EUR 5.25/kg | 2026-11-05 |
Recent quotations from industry and official Vietnamese sources also point to slightly firmer FOB kernel prices into early November, particularly for W240 and W320, after several months of largely sideways trading. Rising Tanzanian RCN benchmarks and steady demand in India and Europe are reinforcing this floor, even as some EU buyers remain more cautious and price-sensitive.
Supply, Demand & Trade Flows
Tanzania is currently the key supply focus. Since the marketing season opened on 12 October, roughly 253,395 tonnes of RCN have reached licensed warehouses, with cumulative auction sales of about 241,424 tonnes and around 7,722 tonnes already shipped. Eleven exporters participated in the latest auction round, underlining strong competition for high outturn lots. The sizeable arrivals signal ample raw material, although the pace of shipments to India and Vietnam will decide when this supply translates into kernel availability.
Mozambique’s season is ramping up with 22,000–23,000 tonnes reportedly traded so far. Prices have strengthened in Cabo Delgado, where demand is concentrated, to roughly US$1.09–1.33/kg, while Nampula has weakened on softer buying. The divergence reflects uneven regional demand rather than a structural national shortage. Elsewhere in Africa, forward-looking investment in processing, notably in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Tanzania, is gradually reshaping trade from export of raw nuts towards domestic kernel value chains.
On the demand side, India’s RCN imports declined 7.6% year-on-year to about 1.085 million tonnes in January–September 2026, but average import prices rose from roughly US$1,546 to US$1,725/tonne. Tanzania has emerged as India’s largest supplier with more than 215,000 tonnes, followed by Nigeria, Ghana and Togo, while some traditional West African sources saw notable declines. India’s kernel exports have been flat in volume at around 24,400 tonnes over the same period, but export value fell 4.37%, pointing to lower realised prices despite resilient shipment volumes.
Vietnam continues to consolidate its role as the dominant kernel supplier, particularly to Europe. EU imports of Vietnamese cashew kernels rose about 4.3% year-on-year to 92,336 tonnes in January–August, with import value up nearly 7%. Germany and the Netherlands lead this demand, and buyers have been steadily increasing their reliance on Vietnamese supply even as August volumes dipped on a year-on-year basis. In parallel, Chinese and US offtake remains supportive, while some recent industry commentary suggests a modest softening in short-term EU buying appetite after earlier restocking.
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Fundamentals & Margins
At the fundamental level, firm RCN prices collide with relatively stable kernel quotations, especially for mainstream grades, leaving processors with restricted margins. Vietnamese factories are actively selling existing kernel stocks but remain cautious about committing to fresh RCN purchases, particularly at elevated Tanzanian, Indonesian and West African offers. In several cases, available kernel prices into the US and EU markets do not yet justify current raw material replacement costs.
India faces a similar margin squeeze. Higher average RCN import prices combined with mostly steady kernel export values have eroded profitability, especially for processors reliant on imported raw nuts rather than domestic crops. Domestically, India’s kernel market is quiet after the festival season, with many plants not yet back to full capacity. However, traders expect a gradual improvement in enquiries as the wedding season progresses, benefiting premium whole kernels and broken grades used by sweet manufacturers and food processors.
Structurally, African processing expansion is adding a new competitive layer. Projects in Côte d’Ivoire, including a financed facility in Korhogo and a transaction granting Indian investors access to about 60,000 tonnes of Ivorian processing capacity, point to more kernels originating directly from Africa in the medium term. Ghana is also moving into higher value-added products, including items based on cashew apples and broken kernels. Over time, this may redistribute margins along the supply chain and slightly reduce the dominance of traditional Asian processing hubs.
Weather & Crop Outlook
Weather in Tanzania’s key production regions of Mtwara and Lindi is currently assessed as generally favourable, with limited and scattered rainfall that supports ongoing harvesting and post-harvest operations. Adequate moisture earlier in the season combined with current dry spells is helping maintain fruit quality, though continuous dryness would need monitoring if it extended unusually long.
In Mozambique and parts of West Africa, conditions are hot with limited rainfall. This pattern is supportive for current harvesting but raises concerns over soil moisture and the subsequent crop if dryness persists. Ghana’s next cashew season is under close watch: declining rainfall and warmer conditions can bolster flowering, provided that dryness does not overshoot and stress trees. Looking further ahead, market participants are increasingly focused on a potentially strong El Niño event, which could inject greater uncertainty into the 2027 Northern Hemisphere crop and heighten sensitivity to any adverse weather headlines.
Near-Term Forecast & Trading Outlook
In the coming weeks, global cashew kernel prices are expected to remain broadly range-bound but underpinned by elevated RCN markets and tightening availability of large whole kernels and certain pieces and splits. Tanzanian high-quality RCN is likely to stay expensive as auctions progress, limiting downside in kernel values even if end-market demand turns patchy. At the same time, subdued processor appetite for fresh RCN purchases will cap aggressive price rallies unless demand surprises significantly to the upside.
European and American consumption trends remain supportive overall, with some regional variations in restocking rhythm, while China’s premium cashew segment continues to develop. In India, a gradual post-Diwali demand recovery linked to the wedding season should give additional support to premium kernels and broken grades used in confectionery and food manufacturing. Against this backdrop, forward selling for Q2 2027 and beyond is cautious, reflecting both margin pressures and uncertainty around upcoming crops.
Trading recommendations
- Kernel buyers (EU, US, Middle East): Consider securing coverage for large whole grades (W240 and above) and critical pieces for Q1–Q2 2027 while premiums are manageable, as limited high-KOR RCN and strong Tanzanian prices may tighten these segments further.
- Roasters and retailers: Maintain flexible grade specifications where possible (e.g. partial substitution between W320 and W240, or between different piece grades) to mitigate tightness and capture more competitive offers from both Asian and emerging African processors.
- Processors (India, Vietnam, Africa): Focus on inventory discipline by matching RCN purchases closely to confirmed kernel sales and monitoring Tanzanian auction dynamics; avoid over-committing at current high raw nut prices without adequate kernel forward cover.
3-day directional outlook (key hubs)
- FOB Vietnam (Hanoi): Cashew kernels WW240 and WW320 expected to remain stable around current EUR 8.15/kg and EUR 7.25/kg respectively over the next three days, with a slight upward bias for larger grades if additional Tanzanian RCN strength emerges.
- FOB India (New Delhi): W320 around EUR 7.15/kg and brownish white W240 around EUR 7.65/kg seen steady in the very short term, supported by wedding-season demand but capped by cautious export buying.
- FCA Netherlands (Dordrecht): WW320 near EUR 5.25/kg expected to trade sideways as European importers digest earlier Vietnamese and Indian arrivals and reassess Q1 2027 coverage needs.