Cashew Market: Stable Near-Term, Cautious Optimism Further Out

India’s cashew market is entering mid-October with a broadly stable price environment but a cautiously positive longer-term outlook, driven by expectations of stronger buying once quality, demand and supply align more clearly. For now, trading remains selective and margins hinge on the balance between raw nut costs and kernel realizations. Processors and importers are watching raw cashew nut (RCN) costs closely as Indian commentary points to favourable future prospects without confirming an immediate price rally. Internationally, Vietnam’s kernel export prices and active Q3 shipments underline firm underlying demand, while wholesale cashew prices in parts of India have risen sharply in recent weeks. Together, these factors suggest upside potential over time, but near-term cashew kernel prices remain range-bound and quality-sensitive rather than in a confirmed uptrend.

Prices

FOB kernel prices are steady across key origins. In India (New Delhi, FOB), benchmark grades are unchanged versus early October: W320 conventional at 7.15 EUR/kg, organic W320 at 8.80 EUR/kg, W240 conventional at 7.65 EUR/kg and W450 at 6.45 EUR/kg. Broken grades such as LWP and SWP stand at 5.95 EUR/kg and 5.35 EUR/kg respectively.

Vietnamese FOB Hanoi offers also show a flat profile in EUR terms, with WW320 at 7.17 EUR/kg and WW240 at 8.07 EUR/kg, while pieces such as WS and LWP are quoted around 6.07 EUR/kg and 5.58 EUR/kg. EU warehouse indications in Dordrecht (FCA) sit below origin prices, with WW320 around 5.25 EUR/kg and organic WW320 at 6.35 EUR/kg, reflecting freight, carry and demand conditions in destination markets. Combined, recent quotations point to a stable but not yet rising kernel market.

Supply & Demand

In India, current trading is described as highly dependent on kernel quality, wholesale demand and nearby availability. That suggests a market where buyers are willing to pay for premium lots but remain cautious on lower grades or off-spec material, keeping overall spot activity moderate.

Raw nut costs remain a critical driver: domestic wholesale cashewnut prices in India have climbed sharply on some platforms in recent weeks, pointing to tighter or more expensive raw material at origin even as kernel offers stay flat.  Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to ship substantial volumes, with Q3 2026 exports still high by historical standards despite some moderation versus Q2, confirming robust underlying global demand. 

Fundamentals & Margins

For processors and importers, the key fundamental remains the relationship between raw cashew nut costs and processed kernel prices. Indian commentary stresses that this cost-price spread will continue to determine commercial margins, underlining the risk that elevated RCN prices could squeeze profitability if kernel values do not adjust upwards.

Trade data and platform listings indicate that India faces firm RCN import prices and a still-tight balance between listings and buyer requests, reinforcing the idea of a costlier raw material base for the local processing industry.  At the same time, Vietnam’s export statistics show higher kernel trade value year on year, suggesting buyers have accepted some price increases over the past 12 months even if EUR-denominated offers have paused in recent weeks. 

Outlook & Trading Ideas

India’s domestic market tone is cautiously optimistic: future business prospects are seen as positive, but stronger prices remain a forecast rather than a confirmed move. Stronger purchasing activity could quickly improve sentiment if wholesale demand accelerates or if quality lots become scarce.

• Importers / roasters: Consider covering a portion of Q4–Q1 needs at current flat EUR prices for core grades (WW320/W320, WW240/W240), while keeping some volume open in case the expected upside materializes later.
• Processors: Be disciplined on RCN procurement; prioritize purchases that lock in acceptable kernel margins and avoid overcommitting at elevated raw nut values without matching forward kernel sales.
• Buyers of lower grades: With pieces and brokens still discounted versus wholes, there is room to optimize blends and specifications if consumer products allow, improving cost performance without chasing potentially higher whole-kernel prices later.

Over the next three days, kernel prices at origin in India and Vietnam are expected to remain broadly stable in EUR terms, with any movement likely limited to individual deals based on quality and urgency rather than a broad market shift. European FCA levels should track this sideways pattern, with modest bargaining room for nearby shipments but no clear directional break yet.