Cashew prices steady, but supply risks are quietly building

The cashew market is entering mid-March 2026 with an unusual mix of short-term price stability and medium-term supply tension. On the surface, this is a calm market: the latest offers in Vietnam, India and the Netherlands were unchanged week on week in most listed grades, and only Indian quotations still show a mild month-on-month softening after the late-February peak. But underneath that flat price tape, the broader market tone is more constructive than the static numbers suggest. Vietnam remains the global processing anchor and exported a record US$5.2 billion of cashews in 2025, yet the industry still depends on imported raw nuts for close to 90% of processing demand. That leaves kernel prices highly sensitive not only to local weather in Vietnam, but also to raw nut availability from Cambodia and Africa. At the same time, India remains an important origin for premium and organic kernels, while the Netherlands continues to function as a European redistribution hub, especially for Vietnam- and India-linked flows into EU retail and foodservice channels. Weather in the three user-specified focus regions is not immediately threatening over the next three days, but it is market-relevant: Hanoi is set for cloudy, damp conditions with showers, supportive for logistics continuity but not a bullish shock; New Delhi is turning hotter and hazier, which matters more for storage, handling and domestic trade sentiment than for orchard yield at this exact moment; and Dordrecht faces cool, mixed weather that is neutral for demand but broadly supportive for uninterrupted inland distribution. In short, today’s cashew market is price-flat but fundamentally not relaxed: supply-chain dependence, import concentration and resilient end-market demand keep downside limited, especially for whole white grades and certified product lines.

Prices

Latest origin and hub quotations

Price interpretation

• Week-on-week, the listed market is essentially unchanged across Vietnam, India and the Netherlands.
• Month-on-month, India still shows a mild easing versus late February in several non-organic grades, while Vietnam and the Netherlands are broadly flat.
• Whole grades remain clearly above pieces, reflecting steady demand for retail and higher-value snack applications.
• Organic premiums remain substantial in both India and the Netherlands, indicating tighter certified availability and resilient niche demand.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam: strong exports, fragile raw material balance

Vietnam remains the key price-setting origin for globally traded kernels. The country achieved record 2025 cashew exports of more than US$5.2 billion and 766,585 tonnes, but this success masks a structural vulnerability: domestic raw material supply covers only around one-tenth of processor needs, with the rest imported mainly from Africa and Cambodia. Recent reporting also highlights a risk that suppliers such as Côte d’Ivoire are increasing domestic processing capacity, which could gradually reduce raw nut availability for Vietnamese factories. That is an important medium-term bullish factor for kernel values, even if nearby offer prices are currently flat.

India: premium support, moderate export competition

India remains relevant in premium, differentiated and organic cashew kernels. APEDA reports India’s cashew production rose to 795 thousand tonnes in 2023-24 from 782 thousand tonnes in 2022-23. Even so, India competes in a market where Vietnam’s scale and processing dominance keep benchmark export pricing highly competitive. This helps explain why Indian prices have recently softened slightly from late-February levels without collapsing: premium quality and organic positioning provide support, but exporters still operate in a globally price-sensitive environment.

Netherlands: European demand hub and re-export gateway

The Netherlands is not a producing origin, but it matters for price discovery in Europe because it is a major import, warehousing and redistribution hub. CBI notes that most imported kernels are re-exported onward across Europe, and Dutch imports rely heavily on Vietnam and India. This means Dutch FCA prices are a good read on nearby European availability, inventory comfort and packer demand rather than farm-level supply. Stable Dordrecht prices therefore suggest no immediate shortage in European spot distribution, even while upstream raw nut risk remains elevated.

Fundamentals

• Global inventories: No transparent exchange-style stock system exists for cashews, so nearby price behavior and trade-flow news matter more than formal inventory series.
• Trade flows: Vietnam’s dependence on imported raw nuts and the Netherlands’ dependence on imported kernels mean the market is highly trade-flow sensitive.
• Speculative positioning: There is no liquid futures market equivalent to CBOT for cashews, so speculative pressure is expressed indirectly through forward contracting, importer coverage and processor raw nut buying.

Weather outlook by focus region

Vietnam (Hanoi / trade benchmark for VN offers)

Over March 14-16, Hanoi is expected to stay mostly cloudy with temperatures around 23-26°C and some showers on March 15-16. For the traded market, this is broadly neutral. It does not point to a weather shock that would immediately disrupt loading or trigger panic buying. However, damp conditions can slow some logistics and handling at the margin if extended.

India (New Delhi / trade benchmark for IN offers)

New Delhi is forecast around 29-31°C through March 14-16 with hazy conditions and very unhealthy air quality on March 15-16. This is not a direct orchard-yield signal for India’s coastal cashew belts, but it does suggest warmer pre-summer trade conditions and potential friction in transport, warehousing and worker efficiency if heat intensifies further. Near term, the effect is neutral to slightly supportive for prices rather than bearish.

Netherlands (Dordrecht / EU hub)

Dordrecht is set for cool weather around 9-12°C with passing rain then partial sunshine through March 14-15. This is operationally benign for warehousing and inland distribution. From a market perspective, it supports continuity in European deliveries and argues against any weather-led spot premium in the next three days.

Key market drivers

• Vietnam’s record export performance keeps demand confidence high.
• Raw nut dependence remains the biggest structural bullish factor for global kernel pricing.
• India’s steady production growth supports supply, but not enough to fully offset global concentration in Vietnamese processing.
• The Netherlands remains a critical EU redistribution hub, helping stabilize European spot availability.
• Weather in IN, NL and VN is near-term neutral, so current prices are being driven more by trade structure than by immediate meteorological stress.

Trading outlook

• Buyers: Nearby spot buyers can remain patient on pieces and secondary grades, where prices are stable and European availability appears comfortable.
• Buyers: Cover premium whole grades and organic lines more proactively; those segments show better structural support and less downside room.
• Processors/exporters: Watch raw nut procurement news closely, especially any signals of tighter shipments from Cambodia or African origins into Vietnam.
• EU distributors: Maintain normal cover for prompt business, but be ready for firmer replacement costs if upstream raw nut tightness reappears.
• Risk view: The current flat tape should not be mistaken for a loose market; the balance still looks stable-nearby but firmer medium term.

3-day regional price forecast