Chickpeas: Indian Chana Softens on Weak Mill Buying, Weather Risks Loom

Indian chana prices are losing momentum as dal mills keep purchases to a minimum, even though imported chickpeas from Australia and Tanzania remain relatively expensive. Government stock sales are capping domestic quotations in the near term, but slower sowing in Rajasthan due to poor soil moisture is beginning to shift attention toward medium‑term supply risks. The market is currently locked in a tug‑of‑war between weak immediate demand and tightening forward fundamentals. Dal and besan consumption has not yet translated into strong mill buying, prompting profit‑taking and softer mandi values across key Indian origins. At the same time, costly imports and concerns over the upcoming rabi crop—especially in Rajasthan—are limiting downside expectations and underpinning FOB offers from India and Mexico. Market participants should balance short‑term softness with the risk of renewed price strength if weather does not improve and government stocks thin out.

Prices

Domestic chana prices in India have eased as dal mills continue to buy cautiously and work down existing inventories, with recent reports highlighting that weak demand for chana dal and besan is failing to support the whole chickpea market. Government stock auctions are adding further downward pressure, reinforcing a softer tone in spot mandis despite firm retail gram‑dal values.

FOB export indications, however, show a different picture: New Delhi offers for chickpeas dried have edged higher since late September, with 42–44 count (12 mm) at EUR 1.04 FOB, 44–46 count (11 mm) at EUR 1.01 FOB and 46–48 count (10 mm) at EUR 0.98 FOB as of 17 October 2026, in line with our latest quotations. Mexico remains at a premium for large counts, with 42–44 count (12 mm) at EUR 1.23 FOB and smaller 75–80 count at EUR 0.91 FOB on the same date.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, government stock sales are a crucial factor: ongoing tenders signal comfortable central inventories and are weighing on spot prices, but they also underline policymakers’ confidence in meeting near‑term demand. Imported chickpeas from Australia and Tanzania remain relatively expensive into India, limiting substitution away from domestic chana and providing a floor under the global market.

Domestic demand is currently the weak link. Dal mills are buying hand‑to‑mouth as they process earlier‑booked government and market stocks, which has softened whole‑chickpea prices despite resilient retail demand for chana dal and besan. Seasonal festival‑related consumption should offer some support, but a clear upswing in mill offtake has not yet materialised, prolonging the phase of subdued spot activity.

Weather & Sowing Outlook

Slower chana sowing in Rajasthan—linked to inadequate soil moisture—has become a growing concern for the upcoming rabi crop, with reports highlighting dry soil conditions in major pulse‑growing belts. If timely rains fail to improve moisture profiles over the next few weeks, final acreage could undershoot earlier expectations, tightening India’s 2026/27 balance sheet.

Given Rajasthan’s importance in India’s chickpea complex, any sizeable shortfall in sowing or yield would quickly reduce the buffer provided by current government stocks. In that case, today’s comfortable local supplies could give way to firmer prices later in the season, especially if global import origins remain relatively expensive and logistical costs stay elevated.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Weak mill demand: Limited purchasing by dal mills is the primary driver behind the latest softening in chana prices, as processors rely on existing stocks and government tenders rather than fresh market buying.
• Government stock sales: Ongoing sales from public inventories are capping domestic prices in the short term, even as retail gram‑dal inflation remains elevated.
• Costly imports: Australian and Tanzanian chickpeas remain comparatively expensive into India, limiting downside on international values despite the local correction.
• Sowing risk in Rajasthan: Slower sowing progress due to poor moisture raises the risk of a smaller 2026/27 chana crop, which could tighten supplies once current stocks are drawn down.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)

• Buyers (importers and food manufacturers): Use the present dip in Indian chana prices to cover near‑term needs, but avoid over‑extending coverage until there is more clarity on Rajasthan sowing and broader rabi progress.
• Dal mills: Maintain cautious, need‑based buying in the spot market while monitoring government tender volumes; be ready to step up procurement if indications emerge of acreage losses or reduced NAFED sales.
• Producers and stockists: With current sentiment pressured by stock sales and weak demand, holding some inventory into Q1 2027 may pay off if weather issues translate into tighter physical supplies, but this strategy carries policy and demand‑side risks.

3‑Day Price Indication

• India FOB New Delhi: Chana export offers expected to hold broadly steady around current EUR levels, with only marginal downside as long as imported origins remain costly and sowing risks persist.
• Mexico FOB Mexico City: Prices likely to remain firm to slightly supported on continued premium for large‑calibre chickpeas and steady export demand.
• Indian domestic mandis: Local chana prices may stay under mild pressure from weak mill buying and ongoing stock sales, but sharp further declines look unlikely without a significant improvement in soil moisture and sowing prospects.