Chinese beans face strong seasonal supply and soft Q4 export orders; FOB prices edge up, with upside risk when India returns to the market.
Prices
FOB Beijing quotations in EUR show a mild firming bias across major Chinese beans despite the reported softness in export orders:
- Mung beans organic 99.5% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.64 (up from 1.62 on 28 Oct 2026).
- Mung beans 3.8 mm up, 99.5% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.59 (up from 1.57 on 28 Oct 2026).
- Kidney beans small black organic 99.5% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.16 (up from 1.14 on 28 Oct 2026).
- Kidney beans large white 99.5% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.83 (up from 1.77 on 28 Oct 2026).
- Kidney beans large white organic 99.5% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.96 (up from 1.88 on 28 Oct 2026).
- Kidney beans dark red 99.5% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.47 (up from 1.45 on 28 Oct 2026).
- Kidney beans dark red organic 99.5% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.58 (unchanged vs 28 Oct 2026).
- Kidney beans black 99.5% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.06 (up from 1.03 on 28 Oct 2026).
- Adzuki beans red organic 5.0 mm up 99.5% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.50 (up from 1.47 on 28 Oct 2026).
- Adzuki beans red 5.0 mm up 99.95% CN FOB Beijing: EUR 1.43 (up from 1.40 on 28 Oct 2026).
The modest price increases suggest that tight nearby farmer selling and replacement costs are supporting offers, even as buyers resist larger hikes due to still-available old crop and limited forward coverage.
| Origin | Product | Type | Delivery | Latest price (EUR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN | Mung beans | organic 99.5% | FOB Beijing | 1.64 |
| CN | Mung beans | 3.8 mm up, 99.5% | FOB Beijing | 1.59 |
| CN | Kidney beans | small black organic 99.5% | FOB Beijing | 1.16 |
| CN | Kidney beans | large white 99.5% | FOB Beijing | 1.83 |
| CN | Kidney beans | large white organic 99.5% | FOB Beijing | 1.96 |
| CN | Adzuki beans | red 5.0 mm up 99.95% | FOB Beijing | 1.43 |
Supply & Demand
On the supply side, China’s new bean crop is arriving in line with the typical pattern, with most regions marketing new beans from late September through October. National autumn grain harvest progress has surpassed 60%, and weather has been generally favourable for soybean and pulse maturation and drying, supporting good availability of new beans into the export pipeline.
Despite this seasonal supply peak, export demand into Europe is described as limited. August shipments reached 1,302 tonnes, with Europe providing the main incremental demand, but October research indicates that current export orders are small and downstream food manufacturers are only buying on a just-in-time basis. Some old-crop stocks are still being sold, which is capping the price appreciation for categories such as British-style red kidney beans.
India is the key missing demand driver. Market participants expect that Indian buyers will not place large-volume orders until Chinese new beans land in India in November–December and local spot markets there start to feel pressure. When that buying wave emerges, it is likely to firm FOB prices further, but it should also unlock significantly larger export volumes from China.
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Weather & Harvest Conditions
Recent agrometeorological updates for China indicate generally supportive weather for the tail end of autumn harvesting. From 28–30 October, most central and eastern regions are forecast to see dry, sunny conditions, favourable for completing harvest and drying operations, while parts of northeastern Heilongjiang may see some rain or wet snow that is assessed as only moderately restrictive for fieldwork.
Earlier in October, national assessments highlighted adequate soil moisture, near- to above-normal temperatures and mostly timely first frosts in the Northeast, enabling soybeans and other autumn crops to complete grain filling and mature safely. This background supports the exporters’ observation of concentrated new-bean arrivals in late September and October, with no major weather-related shortfalls currently visible.
Fundamentals & Timing
The market is currently defined less by crop risk and more by timing and logistics. Exporters traditionally rely on the new-crop window to ship aggressively, and last year October volumes reached about 13,000 tonnes thanks largely to fresh beans. This year, the combination of modest order books, slow customs and shipment around the early-October National Day holidays, and the overhang of old-crop stocks is suppressing October loadings relative to the potential implicit in supply.
Fundamentally, this creates a temporary imbalance: supply is seasonally heavy and forward demand from India has not yet materialised, while European buyers remain cautious. As a result, the market is experiencing only limited price inflation despite higher replacement costs. Once Indian demand shifts from the sidelines to the spot market in November–December, the current slack in export stems is likely to tighten rapidly.
Trading Outlook & 3-Day View
Trading recommendations
- Exporters in China: Use the current lull in orders to secure medium-term contracts with flexible shipment periods, locking in today’s moderate FOB levels before potential Q4 tightening driven by India.
- European buyers: Maintain only modest nearby coverage, but consider layering in additional Q1 positions to hedge against a potential FOB uptick once Indian demand accelerates.
- Indian buyers: Monitor CN FOB beans closely in November; delaying too long after Chinese cargoes land may mean competing with other importers for shrinking unsold new-crop volumes.
3-day directional outlook (FOB benchmarks)
- CN Beijing – Mung beans & Adzuki beans: Stable to slightly firmer, with new-crop support but limited fresh export demand.
- CN Beijing – Kidney beans (large white, dark red, black): Mild upside bias as exporters resist discounts and domestic logistics normalise post-holiday.
- EU & UK bean benchmarks (FOB GB): Largely stable over the next three days, reflecting steady but unspectacular import demand.