China’s Softer Soybean Appetite Reshapes Global Crush and Oil Flows
China’s weaker soybean and meal demand, record soybean oil exports and firmer Brazil supplies are reshaping global soy trade and regional prices.
China’s soybean complex is shifting from bean- and meal-led growth toward oil-led exports as high inventories, weak feed demand and softer edible oil use curb import needs. This rebalancing is weighing on forward demand expectations for international suppliers while supporting a more competitive export environment in vegetable oils.
Import data for October confirm a marked cooling in China’s buying appetite, with soybean arrivals dropping to their lowest October level since 2023 amid high domestic stocks and poor crushing margins. At the same time, forecasts point to record Chinese soybean oil exports and slightly lower soybean crush, even as total oilseed processing remains high. Against this backdrop, benchmark physical prices show moderate firmness in key origins, while Brazil’s generally good planting progress contrasts with pockets of weather risk. Exporters now face a more demanding Chinese buyer, with trade flows increasingly driven by crush profitability, livestock margins and the relative pricing of US versus South American supplies.
Prices
Physical soybean prices show modest strength but no runaway rally. In Ukraine, GMO-free soybeans CPT Odesa are quoted at EUR 0.387/kg on 10 November 2026, up from EUR 0.383/kg the previous day, reflecting a mild rebound after late-October softness. FOB soybeans from Odesa stand at EUR 0.335/kg as of 5 November 2026, up from EUR 0.327/kg at end-October, confirming slightly firmer Black Sea values.
US No. 2 soybeans FOB Washington D.C. are holding steady at EUR 0.55/kg (latest quote 5 November 2026), suggesting that recent Chinese demand softness has not yet triggered aggressive discounting at the Gulf and Atlantic outlets. In China, yellow soybeans FOB Beijing have risen to EUR 0.79/kg, with organic lots at EUR 0.90/kg, indicating relatively elevated domestic price levels despite high inventories and weaker imports.
| Origin | Type / Term | Latest price (EUR/kg) | Previous price (EUR/kg) | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine (Odesa) | Soybeans GMO-free, CPT | 0.387 | 0.383 | 2026-11-10 |
| Ukraine (Odesa) | Soybeans, FOB | 0.335 | 0.327 | 2026-11-05 |
| United States | Soybeans No. 2, FOB | 0.55 | 0.55 | 2026-11-05 |
| China (Beijing) | Soybeans yellow, FOB | 0.79 | 0.77 | 2026-11-04 |
| China (Beijing) | Soybeans yellow, organic, FOB | 0.90 | 0.88 | 2026-11-04 |
Supply & Demand
China remains the pivotal driver in global soybeans, but its import trajectory is softening. For the 2026/27 marketing year, soybean imports are forecast at around 110 million tonnes, 1.8% higher than the previous forecast but still below the estimated 114 million tonnes in the prior season. Domestic production is projected at roughly 20.1 million tonnes, slightly above 19.93 million tonnes previously, with planted area near 10 million hectares.
Crushing activity is expected to cool. Soybean crush is forecast to fall from 108 million to 106 million tonnes, even as total oilseed crush rises to about 145.4 million tonnes. The key shift lies in product use: high domestic crushing volumes, ample stocks and weaker edible oil consumption are expected to push soybean oil exports to a record 1.35 million tonnes in 2026/27, while China’s overall edible oil imports decline from about 6.9 million to 6.4 million tonnes. This will intensify competition between soybean oil, sunflower oil and palm oil in key importing regions.
Recent customs data confirm the cooling trend. China’s soybean imports in October 2026 dropped to about 7.35 million tonnes, down 38% from September and 22.5% year on year, marking the lowest October intake since 2023. January–October arrivals reached approximately 93.48 million tonnes, a 2.3% decline from a year earlier and broadly in line with independent trade tallies. High inventories and weak crushing margins are the main constraints, with expectations of a further slowdown if livestock feed demand remains subdued.
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Fundamentals: Meal, Oil and Trade Flows
China’s soybean meal consumption is under pressure from both price and structural factors. Soybean meal prices rose sharply between June and September, encouraging feed manufacturers to reduce inclusion rates and substitute alternative protein sources. At the same time, a declining pig population is weighing on overall feed demand, reducing the pull for imported beans and reinforcing lower crush projections.
On the oil side, subdued domestic edible oil consumption leaves more soybean oil available for export. The projected record 1.35 million tonnes of soybean oil exports in 2026/27 positions China as a more prominent supplier into Asian and possibly Middle Eastern markets, putting competitive pressure on traditional exporters. Meanwhile, China’s state-owned buyers had secured around 15.1 million tonnes of US soybeans by late October for 2026/27 delivery, below a 25 million tonne pledge. Persisting 10% retaliatory tariffs on US origin keep commercial crushers focused on price-competitive South American beans, even as domestic soybean prices hover near US$698 per tonne, about 8% above year-ago levels.
In the Americas, Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop outlook remains broadly constructive despite localized weather challenges. National planting has reached roughly two-thirds of intended area, with official monitoring showing 66.8% completion and generally adequate soil moisture, though some states face delays from irregular rainfall and localized flooding. These conditions support expectations for a large South American supply pipeline into 2027, bolstering competition for US exporters in the Chinese and wider Asian markets.
Weather Snapshot
- Brazil: Planting in Center-West is advanced, with improving rains between 11–13 November expected to replenish moisture but temporarily slow fieldwork. Northeastern areas face more uneven precipitation, keeping some acreage at risk of delayed completion.
- Argentina: No major fresh extremes reported in the latest three-day window; with planting season progressing, markets remain sensitive to any shift toward hotter, drier conditions that could revive La Niña concerns later in the season. (Inference based on climatology and current absence of acute weather headlines.)
Outlook & Trading Considerations
The near-term balance for soybeans is shaped by firm supply prospects and a more cautious Chinese buyer. Record Chinese soybean oil exports and lower meal demand point to a more oil-centric trade flow, limiting upside in whole-bean imports even if crush margins recover modestly. At the same time, high domestic inventories and pig-sector headwinds argue against a rapid rebound in Chinese purchases beyond seasonal restocking.
- Producers (US, Black Sea): Use current price stability (e.g., US No. 2 FOB at EUR 0.55/kg; Ukraine FOB at EUR 0.335/kg) to layer in incremental forward sales on rallies, given strong Brazilian planting progress and a softer Chinese import trajectory.
- Crushers: In Asia and Europe, prioritize origin flexibility. China’s growing soybean oil exports and strong South American supply favor opportunistic bean buying and closer monitoring of oil-versus-meal margins.
- Importers: In MENA and South Asia, consider diversifying between beans and products. Rising Chinese soybean oil exports could create windows for competitively priced oil purchases, while still leveraging Brazilian bean availability for local crushing where capacity exists.
3-Day Regional Directional View
- US FOB (Gulf/Atlantic benchmarks): Largely sideways to mildly softer as the market digests weak Chinese October imports and solid Brazilian planting progress.
- Ukraine (FOB/CPT Black Sea): Slightly firm bias after recent upticks from EUR 0.327/kg to 0.335/kg FOB and EUR 0.383–0.387/kg CPT, with logistics and Black Sea risk premia as key swing factors.
- China domestic/FOB: Stable to marginally softer sentiment, with high onshore inventories and weaker crush margins constraining near-term import demand despite elevated local price levels.