Cross-Strait Thaw Supports Taiwan Pineapple Chain as Dried Prices Edge Up

Taiwan’s improving access to the mainland Chinese market is shoring up demand for pineapple-related fruit exports, while dried pineapple prices in Europe are edging slightly higher but remain broadly stable. For now, cross-Strait conditions look supportive rather than explosive for prices, but the market remains sensitive to any policy shift. Taiwan’s fruit exporters are increasingly reliant on mainland China just as shipments to the US and Japan soften, reinforcing the strategic importance of cross-Strait trade for pineapple-type fruits. Pineapple custard apple in particular is highly exposed to the mainland market, supported by fast supply chains from Taitung into Chinese retail. At the same time, dried pineapple offers from Vietnam and Thailand into Europe show a mild upward move since late August, reflecting steady demand and contained supply-side risks. Market participants should see today’s price environment as a window to secure volumes while political and weather conditions are relatively benign.

Prices

Dried pineapple prices in EUR show a slight firming but no breakout trend so far in September 2026. Vietnamese origin FOB Hanoi has moved from about EUR 6.75/kg in late August to roughly EUR 6.77/kg by 11 September, while Thai origin dried pineapple in the Netherlands (FCA Dordrecht) has ticked up by around EUR 0.02/kg over the same period.

Wholesale fresh pineapple prices in major import markets such as the US remain elevated but stable on firm demand absorbing available volumes, especially from Costa Rica and Mexico, without clear signs of immediate tightening.

Supply & Demand

Taiwan’s fruit exports to mainland China grew by about 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, even as overall agricultural exports declined due to weaker US and Japanese demand. This highlights how the mainland market is becoming the primary growth engine for Taiwanese fruit, including pineapple custard apple and other pineapple-adjacent categories.

For pineapple custard apple, roughly 95% of overseas shipments have historically gone to the mainland, and a dedicated Taitung supply chain can place fruit on mainland retail shelves in as little as nine days. This short orchard-to-shelf window supports quality and helps sustain demand, but it also means any disruption in cross-Strait logistics or quarantine approvals would immediately hit exports.

On the dried side, Southeast Asian origins dominate export supply. Current EU-facing offers from Thailand and Vietnam suggest producers are able to meet orders without visible scarcity. However, steady demand from snack, bakery and foodservice sectors, together with relatively firm fresh-fruit benchmarks in North America and Asia, underpin today’s mildly upward bias in dried pineapple prices.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Recent decisions by mainland authorities to approve more Taiwanese orchards and packing facilities for export have eased some of the bottlenecks that limited cross-Strait fruit flows in previous seasons. Expanded pomelo access is the most visible step, but it also signals a broader willingness to normalize trade in other fruits, which indirectly supports sentiment for pineapple-related sectors.

At the same time, Taiwan’s experience with earlier import bans on pineapples and other fruits underscores ongoing policy risk. The current upswing in exports rests on continued quarantine compliance and stable political relations. Any renewed restrictions would immediately affect pineapple custard apple exports and could re-direct volumes toward alternative markets, increasing competition and pressuring prices there.

Weather-wise, the second half of September 2026 is expected to bring near-normal to slightly wetter conditions across parts of tropical Southeast Asia, but without a clearly defined severe event currently threatening the main pineapple-producing hubs. This outlook is broadly neutral for near-term supply, though the wider 2026 typhoon season around Taiwan and the Western Pacific remains a background risk that market participants should monitor.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Spot buyers (EU dried pineapple): Use current, only slightly higher price levels to secure Q4 coverage. The recent EUR 0.02/kg uptick signals firm but not overheated demand; modest further strengthening is more likely than a sharp correction absent a demand shock.
• Industrial users and blenders: Consider forward contracts or staggered purchases for Vietnamese and Thai dried pineapple to hedge against potential logistics or policy disruptions that could ripple out of the cross-Strait fruit trade environment.
• Exporters with Taiwan exposure: Maintain strict compliance with mainland quarantine and documentation rules and diversify destination portfolios where possible, given the high dependence of pineapple custard apple exports on a single market.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Dried pineapple, FOB Vietnam: Stable to slightly firmer (around EUR 6.7–6.8/kg) as buyers quietly build positions.
• Dried pineapple, FCA Netherlands (Thai origin): Stable to marginally firmer (around EUR 3.8–4.0/kg) with limited downside in the very near term.
• Fresh import benchmarks (US, EU): Sideways to firm, with strong underlying demand expected to prevent any sharp price softening over the next few days.