Dried Apricots: Strong Export Season Meets Short-Term Price Pressure

Dried apricots are emerging from a very strong October export season into a quieter November, with prices under pressure but significant support expected from upcoming festive and Ramadan demand, as well as potential Turkish Grain Board intervention. After an exceptionally active October—exports were around 77% higher than a year earlier—the dried apricot market has shifted into a consolidation phase. Export flows in November have slowed, but they continue at a reasonable pace. Market stagnation is exerting downward pressure on prices, yet producers are actively trying to prevent a further erosion of raw material values. With New Year programs starting and the approach of Ramadan, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic that demand will re-accelerate.

Prices

Despite recent pressure, current indications suggest a market that is soft rather than collapsing. In Akdeniz / Mersin, Turkey, FOB prices for conventional unsulphured dried apricots cluster in a narrow band around the mid-EUR 6 range, while organic qualities hold a clear premium near the upper EUR 8–9 range.

Sulphured material trades at a discount, with no. 1 sulphured quoted at EUR 5.95/kg FOB Akdeniz / Mersin and smaller sizes down to about EUR 5.51/kg. In European warehouses, FCA Dordrecht prices for conventional Turkish sizes mostly range from roughly EUR 5.95/kg (size no. 8) up to EUR 7.05/kg (size no. 0), with only marginal week‑on‑week moves, confirming a phase of consolidation rather than renewed rally.

Supply & Demand

On the demand side, October’s export performance—around 77% higher year-on-year—confirms that international buyers front-loaded purchases, likely to secure supply early for year-end programs. This surge has now faded into more measured November buying, leaving the market feeling quieter but not structurally weak.

Producers are working to keep raw material prices from slipping further, mindful of losses in the previous season. The sector is also looking ahead: New Year consumption in Europe and other markets, followed by Ramadan-driven demand in the Middle East, is expected to lift offtake again. Compared with other dried fruits, dried apricots are currently described as more dynamic, with better prospects for renewed demand into late Q4 and early Q1.

Fundamentals & Policy Backdrop

Fundamentals are shaped by two opposing forces. On one side, the strong October export program and producer price discipline provide underlying support. On the other, the current stagnation in spot trading is creating psychological and logistical pressure towards lower bids, especially from importers who have already covered a portion of their needs.

A key stabilizing factor is the expectation that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will step in should prices fall too far. Market participants anticipate potential purchasing activity from TMO aimed at absorbing surplus and defending minimum price levels. This backstop is a crucial element underpinning producers’ resolve not to accept aggressive discounts on raw material or processed product.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Near-term, the dried apricot market is likely to trade sideways with a mild downward bias if demand remains subdued in November. However, the seasonal calendar is supportive: as New Year orders finalize and Ramadan approaches, fresh buying interest should emerge, particularly from Middle Eastern markets that rely heavily on dried fruit consumption during the festive period.

• Importers / industrial users: Those undercovered for Q1 may consider scaling in at current FOB levels around EUR 6.35–6.60/kg for unsulphured Turkish origins, balancing the risk of minor near-term softness against the upside of seasonal demand and potential TMO support.
• Producers / exporters: Maintaining price discipline appears justified, especially on better sizes and organic grades, while remaining flexible on smaller lots to keep product moving until Ramadan demand materializes.
• Traders: The current range-bound pattern favors selective accumulation on dips, with an eye on hedging or partial forward sales into any pre-Ramadan rally.

3-Day Directional View

• Turkey FOB Akdeniz / Mersin: Dried apricot prices expected broadly stable over the next three days, with only limited room for further downside given producer resistance.
• EU FCA Dordrecht / Lodz: Warehouse prices likely to track Turkish indications closely, holding within the current range as buyers monitor demand signals for New Year and early Ramadan shipments.