Georgian Hazelnuts Ease Lower as Disease Fears Cap the Downside

Georgian hazelnut kernel prices in Warsaw have softened slightly week-on-week, while Turkish FOB values hold broadly steady after the completed 2026 harvest. Market attention is shifting from weather to supply quality in Georgia, where disease pressure in key western regions is emerging as the main structural risk. Georgian-origin natural kernels in Poland are showing modest downside momentum after the main European buying window, but the price gap to Turkish material remains wide, especially versus organic grades. With Turkey’s 2026 crop harvested under normal autumn conditions and supported by high domestic in-shell intervention prices, exporters show little urgency to discount. In contrast, Georgia faces medium‑term uncertainty from orchard health issues in Guria and Samegrelo, limiting confidence in future output growth even as short‑term availability remains adequate. Near-term pricing looks range‑bound, with only mild downside for conventional kernels as European chocolate and confectionery demand enters the seasonal peak.

Prices

*Week-on-week refers to the last available quotation for each product.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global hazelnut supplier, with recent export data for September 2026 confirming strong overseas shipments compared with the previous year, underpinned by solid EU demand. High Turkish Grain Board (TMO) intervention prices for in-shell hazelnuts this season support growers’ margins and anchor offer levels, limiting aggressive undercutting in kernel export markets.

In Georgia, hazelnuts are a leading agricultural export and a key cash crop in coastal Samegrelo and Guria, but the sector is under structural pressure. A recent industry report highlights that an unidentified disease is drying out orchards in these western regions, with local experts warning of a potential crisis if no solution is found. This follows earlier pest issues such as the brown marmorated stink bug, which have already constrained yields and quality.

Fundamentals & Weather (Georgia focus)

For the current marketing period, the main Georgian hazelnut harvest in Samegrelo and Guria is effectively complete, and near-term weather has limited influence on 2026 crop volumes. The short-range forecast for Zugdidi in Samegrelo over October 21–23 shows mild temperatures with a mix of clouds, showers and sunshine, typical for the season and not threatening post-harvest handling.

Further east in Kakheti, October 2026 temperatures range from mid-teens to low 20s °C during the day and cool nights, reflecting a normal autumn transition. These conditions are supportive for on-farm drying and storage but do not offset the structural disease challenge in the western hazelnut belt. Overall, short-term fundamental risk from weather is low; market focus remains on orchard health, yield potential for coming seasons and competition from ample Turkish supply harvested under stable autumn conditions.

3–Day Price Outlook & Trading Ideas

Trading outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Buyers (EU roasters/confectioners): Use the slight softening in Georgian FCA Warsaw offers for 11–13mm and 15+ kernels to cover short-term needs, but avoid overextending coverage given disease-related medium‑term uncertainty.
• Sellers (Georgian exporters): Maintain offer discipline near current levels; Turkey’s firm in-shell price environment and largely steady kernel FOB levels justify resisting deeper discounts.
• Organic segment: With Turkish organic FOB quotations flat and at a high premium to conventional, organic buyers should focus on timing rather than expecting near-term price relief.

3‑day regional price indication (directional)

• Georgian kernels, FCA Warsaw (GE origin): Slight downward bias but largely stable; prices expected to move within a narrow range around current levels over the next three days.
• Turkish kernels, FOB Istanbul/İzmir: Sideways to marginally softer tone as recent small declines work through, but no sharp moves anticipated given completed harvest and steady export demand.
• Differentials (GE vs TR conventional): Spread expected to remain broadly unchanged in the very short term, with quality and certification driving lot‑by‑lot negotiation rather than headline price shifts.