As expected, the past trading week was also a quiet one in the Turkish hazelnut market. There is hardly any export demand, although there was a good level of contract calls in the first two months of the year. Business in the Turkish domestic market is also stable. Thus, most exporters are not complaining about the current situation but about future prospects. Accordingly, some are active at the moment but are rather encountering restraint among buyers. Many buyers have seen in recent weeks that the market has continued to decline and therefore do not want to commit themselves yet. Final quantities for the second quarter will probably only be closed when the market turns.
It’s halftime
The first six months of the season are now (almost) over and it is halftime in the Turkish hazelnut season. As already mentioned, the export figures are far below the level of the previous year, but compared to the start of the season they have now caught up again. We currently expect the season to end with exports of about 290,000 mt. This is slightly better than originally expected, but below the exporters’ target of 300,000 mt.
In the coming weeks, the focus will now increasingly turn from the current harvest to the 2023 harvest. The first teams are already out in the Turkish hazelnut orchards to make an initial forecast based on the flower counts. The first counts still have a high uncertainty factor but are the basis for speculation in the coming weeks. After two good years, we expect rather subdued forecasts for the coming harvest. We, therefore, expect a pronounced “rumour mill” for the next six to eight weeks. However, the past year has shown that the market is no longer as nervous as in the past because of good coverage.
Slightly higher raw material prices
In terms of prices, we see a slight increase in raw material prices. Some exporters were in the market as buyers. Together with the stronger Turkish lira, we have a slight increase in export prices. Contrary to the expectations of many, the Turkish lira is currently holding steady or even gaining strength again.
As in other countries, inflation is also declining in Turkey. For January, the official statistics authority issued a value of “only” 57.68%. On Thursday, the Turkish central bank also lowered the key interest rate from 9.0 to 8.5%. This was justified by economic data that were better than expected. It also said that the consequences of the earthquake would have no long-term impact on Turkey’s economic strength. This approach is still in contrast to the interest rate policy of most other economies, but it seems to attract little international attention, so the impact on the exchange rate is currently small.
With isolated spot market transactions, we expect the market to remain fairly quiet in the coming weeks.
Bullet points
- Quiet trading week in terms of exports.
- Commodity prices are slightly up due to local demand (domestic market and exporters).
- The first half of the season is now over. The focus is now slowly turning to the coming harvest.
- Export figures are better than originally expected, but still below the desired target.
- In the coming weeks, we expect many rumours regarding the volume/development of the 2023 harvest.
- The Turkish central bank cuts the key interest rate again from 9.0 to 8.5%. Contrary to the expectations of many market participants, the Turkish lira is strengthening slightly again.
Import/Export Statistics
Please click to reach our marketplace
The following reports may be of interest to you:
Related posts:
Turkish Hazelnut Market Overshadowed by Earthquake Impact 
Turkish Hazelnut Raw Material Prices Begin to Consolidate 
Turkish Hazelnuts: The Harvest Has Begun 
President Erdogan Announces The New State Purchase Price For Hazelnut Kernels 
Turkish Hazelnuts: First Assessment of the Hazelnut Orchards After Last Week’s Frost 
Turkish Hazelnuts Damaged by Frost 
Turkish hazelnut exporters adjust their price lists 
Hazelnuts Turkey: Erdoğan under political pressure Hazelnut market not important enough