Hazelnuts: Falling Offers, Rising Supply Risks in Turkey’s Difficult 2026 Crop

Turkish hazelnut prices are still easing at the offer level, even as structurally lower kernel yields, massive state purchases and potential industrial buying leave the market exposed to a rapid upward price correction of 20–25%. The 2026 Turkish hazelnut season has flipped from early optimism to a quality- and yield-driven squeeze. Persistent wet weather has cut kernel recovery and triggered mold and defect issues across almost all key regions, while the state buyer TMO has already absorbed more than 100,000 t of in-shell nuts and may reach 150,000–200,000 t by year-end. At the same time, European demand is only gradually rebuilding, keeping spot and short-term offers under pressure despite a tightening balance for high-grade kernels. Competing origins in the Caucasus struggle with quality and cost competitiveness, while organic Turkish material remains firmly priced on FOB basis.

Prices

European offer prices for Turkish hazelnut kernels DAP Central Europe have eased over the past week, despite growing supply-side risks. According to the latest indications for full truckloads DAP Central Europe, raw organic kernels 11–13 mm are quoted at 8,74 EUR/kg (−0,40 EUR w/w), conventional raw kernels 11–13 mm at 7,62 EUR/kg (−0,19 EUR), and roasted 11–13 mm kernels at 10,49 EUR/kg (−0,21 EUR). Smaller roasted fractions trade at 6,92 EUR/kg (2–4 mm, −0,21 EUR) and 6,58 EUR/kg (0–2 mm, −0,18 EUR), while hazelnut paste stands at 5,92 EUR/kg (−0,50 EUR). These softer DAP indications contrast with firming sentiment on the origin side.

Current FOB Turkey offers for organic material confirm a differentiated picture. Organic hazelnut kernels 11–13 mm are currently indicated at 19,35 EUR/kg FOB Izmir, organic kernels 13–15 mm at 18,30 EUR/kg FOB, blanched roasted organic kernels at 22,80 EUR/kg FOB, and roasted chopped organic hazelnuts 2–4 mm at 22,35 EUR/kg FOB, all updated mid-October 2026. Georgian natural kernels FCA Warsaw remain significantly cheaper, with 11–13 mm at 8,35 EUR/kg and 13–15 mm at 9,90 EUR/kg, but this price gap is increasingly offset by quality and specification concerns.

Supply & Demand

The Turkish crop has deteriorated markedly versus summer expectations. Six to eight weeks of unsettled, rainy weather delayed harvest and drying and have caused widespread quality problems, including internal and external mold, deformed or tumor-like kernels and damage from brown marmorated stink bug. Initially confined to coastal areas, these issues now affect higher elevations as well, including traditionally high-quality Çakıldak orchards around Ordu. Disappointment is particularly acute because better qualities were expected from mid- and high-altitude zones, which has not materialized.

The key metric is kernel yield (Randuman). In a normal year, around 50% of in-shell weight converts into good kernels; this season, values below 40% are frequently reported. At 40% yield, one tonne of in-shell nuts produces only 400 kg of sound kernels instead of 500 kg at 50%, implying at least 20% less saleable product from the same crop. As a result, the report expects a downward revision of the Turkish crop from the initially discussed 700,000–750,000 t to an economically relevant 620,000–650,000 t. More importantly, the volume of exportable, high-grade kernels is likely significantly below what headline in-shell tonnage suggests.

The state grain and agricultural agency TMO has emerged as a pivotal actor. It has already purchased more than 100,000 t of in-shell hazelnuts, with registrations for roughly another 100,000 t. If current speeds continue, total intake could reach 150,000–200,000 t by year-end, equivalent to about 23–32% of a 620,000–650,000 t crop. However, TMO is rejecting more than 40% of delivered lots on quality grounds. Rejected material then returns to the free market at deep discounts, creating a two-tier structure: scarce and increasingly bound top-quality lots versus abundant but downgraded material that continues to weigh on offers.

On the demand side, European buyers remain cautious but are gradually extending coverage. Many have already booked partial volumes and are now exploring medium and longer-term contracts at current levels, which are increasingly perceived as workable. Nevertheless, there are still offers of special parcels and spare processing capacity, underlining that sellers remain more aggressive than buyers in finished products. At the same time, other origins offer only limited relief: Georgia faces its own quality challenges and weak price advantage, while Azerbaijan is seen as a promising high-quality origin but still has limited processing and export capacity, even if sellers have become more flexible on price.

Fundamentals & Industry Impact

The collapse in kernel yields has harsh economic consequences for Turkish farmers. Market prices are typically calculated on a reference yield of 50% Randuman. If actual yields fall below 40%, per-kilo payouts drop sharply. Based on an indicative example, a reference price of 170 TRY/kg at 50% Randuman can fall to around 100 TRY/kg when yield is under 40%. For many producers, this level barely covers production and harvest costs, fueling dissatisfaction and shaping selling behavior.

Regional differences are notable: growers in western production areas tend to sell more pragmatically into the market, whereas many farmers in eastern regions are trying to maximize deliveries to TMO or holding back part of their crop in the hope of higher prices. This heterogenous response complicates supply planning for exporters and processors. In parallel, exporters themselves face financing pressure: recent quarterly interest payments have strained liquidity at some firms, and a recent reduction in Turkey’s export-promotion mechanism (previously worth around 3% in some currency deals) could tighten margins further, depending on whether it was already embedded in sales prices.

The processing industry is equally challenged by quality issues. While many defective kernels are visually obvious, cleaning them out requires heavy investment in sorting technology and multiple passes, cutting effective capacity and extending lead times. Crucially, this is not only a problem for high-end whole kernels. Broken kernels, small calibers and hazelnut paste increasingly require intensive selection as well, undermining the traditional assumption that large volumes of low-grade kernels naturally translate into cheap processed products. Additional sorting, higher rejection rates and lower yields are pushing up production costs across the entire product spectrum, from naturelle kernels to pastes and industrial ingredients.

Strategic Buyers & Price Risk

A key uncertainty is the behavior of the world’s largest industrial hazelnut buyer. Unlike previous seasons, this player has not started with large purchases of in-shell nuts, but instead requested offers for already shelled, natural kernels. Initial purchase volumes are estimated at around 25,000 t of natural kernels, equivalent to roughly 60,000–65,000 t in-shell at today’s depressed yields. Execution of these contracts is proving difficult: approximately one-third of deliveries are reportedly being rejected on quality grounds, and many suppliers have failed to ship agreed volumes on time. Longer delivery lead times are therefore expected.

Independently of these first deals, the buyer is understood to have a commitment towards Turkish authorities to take at least 45,000 t of in-shell hazelnuts by year-end. The way this obligation is fulfilled represents a major price risk. If the buyer has to source most of this tonnage quickly on the open market, it will face a supply pool already thinned by TMO’s 150,000–200,000 t purchases and by poor kernel recoveries. In Turkey, market scenarios are being discussed in which farmgate and in-shell prices could jump by more than 25% within a short time, should such aggressive spot buying materialize.

Market chatter also includes the possibility of direct arrangements between the industrial market leader and TMO. The state agency reportedly intends to hold its stocks for at least one year, signaling a willingness to support prices and stabilise farm incomes. Since TMO’s lots may be better suited for industrial use than much of the free-market material, a controlled release to a key industrial buyer could either tighten the free market further or, alternatively, act as a stabilizing mechanism if volumes and timing are carefully managed. At this point, however, any such cooperation remains speculative and is not confirmed.

Weather & Other Origins

In Turkey, the problematic six to eight weeks of unsettled weather behind the current quality situation are now largely over, but the damage is done: late harvest, slow drying and elevated mold incidence are visible in kernel grading. Recent extreme rainfall and flooding events in parts of the Marmara and Black Sea regions underline the volatility of autumn weather patterns, although they hit after the main hazelnut harvest window and primarily exacerbate logistical and storage challenges rather than changing the 2026 crop size.

The Caucasus offers only partial diversification. Georgia’s current season is described as difficult, with both crop size and quality under pressure and innershell mold rates of 3–6% in key zones like Zugdidi placing many lots outside acceptable specifications for European buyers. Meanwhile, orchard dieback problems in regions such as Guria and Samegrelo are worsening, pointing to ongoing structural fragility. In contrast, Azerbaijan has built a reputation for visually appealing, high-quality kernels, and investments in processing and export capacity continue. After initially high asking prices, sellers are now more flexible, positioning Azerbaijan as a potential beneficiary of Turkey’s quality shortfall, though overall volumes remain modest versus Turkish scale. Outside the Black Sea, origins like Oregon and Piedmont report comparatively healthy crops and quality, but their output cannot fully offset disruptions in Turkey and the Caucasus.

Trading Outlook

• Risk of rapid upside correction: Current DAP and FOB offers still reflect weak short-term demand and the overhang of downgraded lots, but the combination of lower kernel yields, heavy TMO buying and potential industrial spot demand creates a credible scenario for price jumps of 20–25% on good-quality in-shell and kernels.
• Cover quality-sensitive needs early: Buyers with strict sensory or defect specifications should advance coverage into Q1–Q2 2027, focusing on proven suppliers and clearly defined quality parameters. Availability of top grades from Turkey may tighten sharply if TMO and the leading industrial buyer effectively remove large volumes from open market circulation.
• Differentiate by origin and segment: For less demanding industrial uses, discounted Turkish downgraded lots or competitively priced Georgian kernels may offer value, but only where mold and defect tolerances allow. For premium or branded products, diversification into Azerbaijan, Italy or Oregon can hedge quality and supply risk, albeit at higher price points.
• Watch financing and policy signals: Exporters’ liquidity constraints and changes in Turkish export incentives could translate into more opportunistic selling in the short run, but also raise the floor under offer prices once immediate cash flow needs are met.

3‑Day Price Indication & Direction (key quotations)