Heavy Rains in Australia Tighten Chickpea Supply to South Asia

Australian harvest delays and quality risks are tightening short‑term chickpea availability and underpinning a firmer global price tone, particularly for buyers in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Persistent heavy rainfall in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland has interrupted harvesting, raised mould and discoloration risks and created uncertainty around Australia’s exportable surplus. With only a minority of the 1.05 million‑tonne crop harvested so far, markets are increasingly focused on how much of the remaining volume will still meet normal export specifications and how this will affect shipment programs into South Asia over the coming weeks.

Prices

Australian chickpea prices have strengthened markedly over the past month, as ongoing fieldwork delays limit immediate new‑crop availability while export demand from Pakistan, India and Bangladesh remains robust. Old‑crop stocks are cushioning the nearby supply gap, preventing an even sharper rally, but traders report values for new‑crop parcels at a clear premium to remaining old‑crop inventory. Outside Australia, FOB offers for Indian chickpeas in New Delhi also show a firm trend. Between 3 and 24 October 2026, New Delhi FOB prices for non‑organic dried chickpeas from India rose roughly EUR 0.04–0.08/kg across main calibres. For example, 42–44 count, 12 mm chickpeas increased from EUR 1.00/kg to EUR 1.08/kg FOB New Delhi, while 46–48 count, 10 mm moved from EUR 0.94–0.96/kg on 3–10 October to EUR 1.02/kg by 24 October FOB New Delhi. Mexican origin prices in Mexico City have been more stable, with 42–44 count, 12 mm chickpeas quoted consistently at EUR 1.23/kg FOB Mexico City over recent weeks and 75–80 count, 8 mm only edging up from EUR 0.88/kg to EUR 0.94/kg FOB Mexico City.

Supply & Demand

Australia’s chickpea crop is currently forecast at around 1.05 million tonnes for the season, but only about 300,000 tonnes—mainly in central Queensland—had been harvested when the recent rains arrived. Heavy showers of roughly 100–200 mm over two weeks in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland have stopped harvesters, with some areas seeing even higher totals. Fields already desiccated and awaiting pickup are particularly exposed to mould and seed‑quality losses, while later‑planted crops may benefit from the extra moisture. Exporters serving India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are especially concerned about how much of the unharvested volume will still qualify for higher‑grade desi export specifications. Several cargoes are currently scheduled to load through the Port of Brisbane in the coming weeks, but trade estimates suggest executed shipments could fall to as few as two if quality downgrades are widespread. Lower‑grade chickpeas should still find interest in Pakistan, although at discounted values, while India and Bangladesh are expected to compete for limited parcels of higher‑quality lots.

Fundamentals & Weather

On the production side, Australia remains a key secondary exporter after India, yet the current season already features a sharp year‑on‑year decline in planted chickpea area and expected yields, concentrated in northern New South Wales and Queensland. The latest national crop report pegs Australian chickpea output slightly above 1 million tonnes, down by more than half from the previous season, reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to additional weather‑related losses. Continued showers and high humidity are increasing the risk of mould development on pods, with visual mould already reported in some fields, though the exact proportion of grain that will be downgraded is still unknown.

From a demand perspective, South Asian import needs remain solid. Pakistan and Bangladesh are actively sourcing Australian chickpeas, while Indian buyers are monitoring both domestic price trends and the potential for policy adjustments that could influence import competitiveness. Existing carryover stocks in Australia are currently helping to cover nearby demand and maintain shipment schedules, but if quality losses prove severe and the flow of export‑grade chickpeas tightens further, buyers may need to explore alternative origins or adjust quality expectations as the season progresses.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Harvesting in rain‑affected parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is unlikely to restart before next week and will depend on field conditions improving. Grain handlers are preparing to establish separate receiving categories for off‑spec chickpeas that fail to meet normal quality standards, which could deepen price spreads between premium and downgraded grades. In the short term, this environment is likely to keep Australian chickpea prices supported, particularly for sound, high‑purity lots suitable for premium South Asian destinations.

Trading outlook (next 2–4 weeks)

• Importers in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh: Consider advancing purchases of higher‑grade Australian chickpeas where possible, as quality‑related supply tightening could push premiums further if damage proves extensive once harvest resumes.
• Australian growers and sellers: For good‑quality parcels already in storage or safely harvested, current firmness argues for incremental selling, while retaining some exposure to potential further price gains if exportable quality volumes undershoot expectations.
• Buyers with flexible specifications: Monitor the emergence of discounted lower‑grade Australian chickpeas, particularly for Pakistan, where such material may offer value opportunities if end‑use quality requirements are less stringent.

3‑Day Directional View

• Australian export market (FOB east coast): Bias moderately higher, with firm undertone as harvest delays and uncertainty over damage keep sellers cautious.
• Indian FOB New Delhi chickpeas: Mildly firm, supported by stronger replacement costs and weather‑related risk in Australia, but tempered near term by existing inventories.
• Mexican FOB Mexico City chickpeas: Largely steady to slightly firmer, tracking broader international sentiment but cushioned by relatively stable local quotations.