India’s Black Gram Market Softens Despite Firm Myanmar CNF Offers

India’s black gram (urad) market is weakening as subdued buying from dal mills outweighs firm overseas offers and concerns about future availability. Import costs from Myanmar are rising, but this is not yet translating into stronger domestic prices, leaving the near‑term bias slightly bearish. India’s urad complex turned softer on 2 November, with prices declining in Delhi and Mumbai while most other producing and processing centres held broadly steady. Domestic arrivals have improved in some Uttar Pradesh markets, and additional import cargoes are expected in November, keeping supply perceptions comfortable for now. At the same time, Myanmar-origin FAQ and SQ CNF offers have inched higher, and importers are resisting deeper cuts in their selling prices. Dal mills, however, remain cautious and are mostly covering only prompt crushing needs, capping any sustained upside.

Prices

Delhi and Mumbai reported weaker urad prices on 2 November, reflecting softer spot demand from dal mills rather than a sudden shift in fundamentals. Several other producing and processing markets across India saw comparatively stable quotations, indicating that the current move is more of a demand-led adjustment than a broad supply shock.

Retail and wholesale benchmarks still show urad dal trading at relatively elevated levels versus last year, but the latest direction is mildly downward as mills step back from aggressive buying. All‑India wholesale urad dal benchmarks around early November point to a comfortable supply situation and only selective firmness in premium qualities, rather than a broad rally.

Overseas Offers & Trade Flows

Internationally, Myanmar-origin FAQ urad for November–December shipment has strengthened to around US$940 per tonne CNF, while SQ urad offers are near US$1,000 per tonne CNF. Importers face higher procurement costs and are therefore unwilling to reduce their selling prices substantially, even as domestic spot values soften.

Despite firmer CNF parity, Indian buyers are not chasing imports aggressively. India’s urad imports during the first five months of FY 2026/27 are reported down about 3% year on year, to roughly 270,000 tonnes. Additional Myanmar and other origin cargoes are expected to arrive during November, which should temporarily bolster availability and reduce the urgency for further forward coverage.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, domestic arrivals have improved in selected producing regions, including parts of Uttar Pradesh. This incremental flow, combined with expected imported shipments, is easing immediate tightness concerns despite earlier worries about future availability.

On the demand side, dal mills remain the key weak link. Processors continue to purchase largely against immediate processing requirements, avoiding large speculative stocks. This hand‑to‑mouth strategy, combined with still‑adequate pipeline inventories, is preventing any meaningful or sustained upward move in spot prices, even as overseas costs edge higher and imports slow slightly.

Fundamentals & Key Drivers

• Imports: April–August FY 2026/27 urad imports are down about 3% to around 270,000 tonnes, signalling only a modest tightening versus last year rather than a structural shortage.
• Costs vs. spot: Higher CNF values from Myanmar are squeezing importer margins, but weak downstream demand means mills are not yet willing to absorb these higher costs.
• Arrivals: Improved domestic arrivals in some North Indian markets, alongside expected November import arrivals, are reinforcing a short‑term supply‑comfortable narrative.
• Substitution: With other major pulses such as tur and moong also available, consumer substitution limits the extent to which urad prices can rise on their own.

Short‑Term Outlook

Near term, urad prices in India are likely to remain under mild pressure. Weak processing demand, improved domestic arrivals in select belts, and additional import cargoes expected in November all argue against a quick recovery. Any further downside, however, may be limited by rising CNF costs and importer reluctance to sell aggressively below replacement value.

Volatility could increase if there are negative surprises on future crop prospects or disruptions to Myanmar shipments, but current evidence points to a broadly balanced market. Without a clear improvement in dal mill offtake, rallies are likely to be shallow and short‑lived, while further declines should gradually encounter resistance as import parity tightens.

Trading Outlook

• Dal mills: Continue hand‑to‑mouth coverage, but consider modest forward buying on further dips, especially for preferred FAQ/SQ grades, to hedge against potential freight or origin‑side disruptions.
• Importers: Avoid aggressive discounting below current CNF‑linked replacement costs; focus on managing carry and financing rather than chasing volume in a hesitant demand environment.
• Domestic stockists: Use short‑lived rallies to lighten high‑cost inventory; fresh accumulation should be selective and focused on quality lots that could benefit if imports slow later in the season.

3‑Day Directional View (India)