India’s Chickpea Market: Imports Slump, Weather Risks Build for Rabi

India’s chickpea market is caught between structurally tighter supply and a short-term soft patch, as sharply lower imports and slow rabi sowing clash with weaker dal mill buying and ongoing government stock sales. Chickpea fundamentals in India have tightened notably in 2026: January–August chana imports fell around 44% year-on-year to about 655,000 tonnes, while domestic inventories are described as relatively limited. At the same time, delayed and moisture‑constrained rabi sowing in Gujarat and other key producing states raises downside risks for the 2026/27 crop. Yet spot prices have recently eased as dal mills scaled back purchases and the market closely watches state stock offloading. Current indications suggest downside in the near term is capped, with rising weather and acreage risks pointing to a firmer price tone further into the season.

Prices

FOB quotations in India’s physical market have firmed modestly over October despite reports of softer local chana prices in recent sessions due to reduced dal mill buying. New Delhi FOB chickpeas from India moved higher between early and late October 2026 across main sizes:

Mexican FOB prices are broadly stable, with Mexico City chickpeas (42–44, 12 mm) indicated at 1.23 EUR FOB on 24 October 2026, unchanged versus mid‑month, while smaller Mexican counts (75–80, 8 mm) are slightly firmer versus early October. The divergence between firm export quotes and temporarily weaker domestic Indian mandi levels underlines that market softness is demand‑driven rather than a sign of comfortable fundamentals.

Supply & Demand

India’s role as the core of the global chickpea balance is underscored by a steep fall in imports this year. According to domestic reports, chana imports in January–August 2026 dropped to roughly 655,000 tonnes, about 44% below the approximately 1.18 million tonnes brought in during the same period of 2025. This aligns with recent trade data showing a sharp on‑year decline in chana arrivals even as total pulses imports edge higher, with masur and tur taking a larger share of the pulses import mix.

Despite this, domestic chana inventories are described as relatively limited, and imports from Australia and alternative origins remain crucial to balancing Indian demand. Trade analysis suggests India’s chana balance moved from comfortable in 2025–26 towards a potentially tighter scenario, as opening stocks near 0.9 million tonnes combine with production around 11.5 million tonnes and imports of roughly 600,000 tonnes. Lower Australian crop prospects for chana add further risk to India’s import reliance, especially given that Australia is the main supplier into the Indian market.

On the demand side, current weakness is largely tactical. Dal mills have recently reduced buying, pressuring spot prices despite the tighter import and stock backdrop. At the same time, the government is using stock sales and buffer management to influence near‑term availability and temper inflation risks, which can temporarily weigh on private trade sentiment and discourage aggressive inventory building ahead of the rabi season.

Weather & Sowing Outlook

Weather and moisture conditions are emerging as the key bullish risk for the coming rabi chickpea crop. Slow chana sowing is reported in Gujarat and other major producing belts, linked to insufficient soil moisture after a poor monsoon distribution. This is consistent with national assessments that the 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a notable rainfall deficit and left subsurface moisture and reservoir levels below normal, a combination that is explicitly flagged as negative for chana sowing.

Recent research notes that October rainfall has been sharply below average and that residual moisture for rainfed rabi pulses such as chana is weak across several central and western regions. As a result, sowing is delayed where irrigation is limited, and any further shortfall in late‑October and November showers would likely cap acreage and restrict yield potential. Against already lower imports and leaner stocks, this weather‑driven acreage risk is a key medium‑term support for prices.

Fundamentals & Policy Signals

Market commentary from India’s pulses trade points to a structurally tighter chana balance versus last year, with lower carry‑in, reduced imports and weak rainfall for the upcoming crop year. An industry assessment recently highlighted that for chana the balance sheet is tightening after a season in which prices largely traded below the minimum support price, while the forthcoming year is exposed to both Australian production losses and domestic moisture stress.

Policy remains an important short‑term swing factor. Government stock sales are explicitly cited as a moderating influence on domestic prices and trader behavior, with the market watching for further disposal volumes and any changes in import duty or quarantine conditions for chana and substitute pulses. At the same time, the authorities have kept tur and urad imports in the ‘Free’ category and maintained non‑zero duties on chana and masur, reinforcing the premium structure between chana and alternative pulses.

Trading Outlook (Next 4–6 Weeks)

• Bias: mildly bullish medium term, range‑bound near term. Lower imports, lean inventories and slow rabi sowing argue for a firmer trend into late Q4 2026 and early 2027, but recent demand softness from dal mills and ongoing government stock sales may keep rallies in check in the very short run.
• For buyers (mills and importers): Use current price dips to secure partial coverage for Q1 2027, focusing on favored Indian sizes (10–12 mm) where FOB New Delhi has risen but remains below potential weather‑risk levels. Stagger purchases to hedge against further government interventions that could temporarily ease spot markets.
• For sellers (farmers and stockists): Avoid heavy forward selling at current levels given rising weather and acreage risks. Retain a portion of stocks for possible price appreciation later in the season, but remain attentive to policy headlines on stock limits and buffer offloading.
• For traders: Watch spreads between Indian and Mexican origins as well as between chana and substitute pulses (yellow peas, masur). Tightening Australian supply and delayed Indian sowing may widen chana premia into early 2027, offering basis and inter‑commodity spread opportunities.

3-Day Regional Price Indication

• India – New Delhi (FOB): Chickpeas dried 42–44 (12 mm), 44–46 (11 mm) and 46–48 (10 mm) are expected to remain firm to slightly higher over the next three days, supported by tight import flows and cautious farmer selling, but capped by weak dal mill demand and potential state stock releases.
• India – Rajkot (FOB): Indicative chickpea offers recently moved to 1.10 EUR, up from 1.00 EUR earlier in October, suggesting an underlying firm tone; short‑term direction is sideways to marginally higher, contingent on local sowing progress.
• Mexico – Mexico City (FOB): Export prices around 1.23 EUR for 42–44 (12 mm) look broadly stable in the immediate term, with limited fresh fundamental news; any global upside is likely to be driven mainly by Indian weather and Australian crop developments rather than local Mexican factors.