India’s Lentil Imports Reshape Global Trade Flows

India’s sharply higher imports of masoor and yellow peas are easing domestic supply risks and anchoring regional prices, even as green lentil fundamentals tighten globally. Import costs, however, remain highly exposed to crop outcomes in Canada and Australia, freight rates and FX moves, leaving upside risk if production or logistics disappoint. India’s lentil market is being reshaped by a surge in overseas buying. During April–August 2026, masoor imports jumped to about 640,000 tonnes and yellow pea imports to roughly 620,000 tonnes, markedly increasing availability for dal mills and traders. Canadian and Australian origins remain central to this trade, while recent data point to both strong Indian import demand and a more nuanced global balance between red and green lentils. Against this backdrop, current export offers and farm-gate prices suggest red lentils are comparatively well supplied, whereas green lentils face tighter fundamentals and stronger price support.

Prices

Price indications from key origins show a mixed but broadly steady picture, with a mild firming bias in some segments. In China, small green dried lentils FOB Beijing are currently quoted at EUR 0.88 for conventional and EUR 0.93 for organic (99.5% purity). In Canada, FOB Ottawa values stand at EUR 1.18 for Eston Green, EUR 1.22 for Laird Green and EUR 2.11 for Red football lentils, unchanged on the latest quotations in this series.

Global benchmarks corroborate this stability with pockets of strength. Recent analytics place Canada’s average lentil price for MY 2026/27 modestly above last season, while farm cash bids for small red and large green lentils in Saskatchewan have held relatively firm, even after a brief rally pause in small greens. Export offers for red lentils from Australia and Canada remain competitive into South Asia, though green lentil offers to India have risen more sharply in recent weeks, reflecting tighter supply.

Supply & Demand

India is the pivotal driver of current lentil trade flows. Masoor imports during April–August 2026 reached around 640,000 tonnes, while yellow pea arrivals were close to 620,000 tonnes, significantly bolstering domestic raw material supplies. These volumes align with broader trade statistics showing sharp year-on-year growth in masoor and yellow pea imports over the first months of the 2026 calendar and fiscal years.

On the supply side, Canadian lentil production in 2026/27 is projected to fall by roughly 27%, but high opening stocks and modest imports allow export volumes to remain close to last season’s levels. At the same time, combined red lentil output in Canada and Australia is expected to exceed 4 million tonnes, indicating comfortable availability in this segment, while green lentil supplies are tightening due to lower production in multiple origins, including Canada, the United States, Russia and Kazakhstan.

For India, ample imported masoor and yellow peas, alongside increased arrivals of other pulses, are currently cushioning the impact of domestic weather-related risks and supporting steady operation of dal mills. Nevertheless, strong structural demand growth in South and Southeast Asia continues to underpin the global lentil balance, leaving little room for major export disruptions without price repercussions.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental picture is diverging by type. Red lentils face a relatively looser balance, with high expected production in Canada and Australia and stable to slightly firmer prices. In contrast, green lentils are constrained by reduced harvests in several key exporters and buoyant demand from India, supporting a firmer price structure and narrower discounts versus reds.

Weather conditions in the Canadian Prairies are an important short-term factor. Recent agroclimate updates point to persistent above-normal temperatures into October–December 2026, offering generally favorable windows to complete harvest, although localized excess moisture and quality concerns remain in parts of the Prairies. Looking ahead, long-range outlooks for the Prairies indicate warmer-than-average conditions through late autumn, reducing near-term frost risk for any remaining field activity.

Beyond weather, lentil import costs into India and other South Asian destinations remain highly sensitive to ocean freight rates and currency movements. Any renewed strength in shipping markets or depreciation of the Indian rupee against exporter currencies would quickly filter through to CNF offers, particularly for green lentils where underlying physical availability is tighter.

Trading Outlook

• For importers in India and South Asia: The surge in masoor and yellow pea arrivals has improved nearby coverage, but exposure to green lentils remains more acute. Consider extending coverage modestly in green lentils on price dips, while keeping red lentil purchases more hand-to-mouth given the softer global balance.
• For exporters in Canada and Australia: With Indian demand strong and green lentil supply constrained, maintain firm offer ideas on greens, especially for high-quality parcels. In reds, competition between origins and comfortable output suggest a need for competitive pricing to secure incremental business.
• For European and Middle Eastern buyers: Monitor India’s policy stance and import pace; any change that slows Indian buying could briefly ease global prices, presenting opportunities to lock in forward volumes, particularly in red lentils.

Over the next three trading days, we expect FOB lentil prices at major export hubs (Canadian and Chinese origins) to remain broadly steady with a slight firming bias in green types, while CNF values into India should track freight and currency moves more than underlying harvest news.