India’s Tur Import Wave Shapes a Softer but Fragile Pea Market
Concise peas market analysis: India’s surging tur imports, weak dal mill demand, kharif weather risks, and latest GB/Ukraine pea price indications.
Prices
Spot pea quotations show mild softness in Western Europe and generally stable to slightly firmer levels in the Black Sea:
| Product | Origin | Location | Terms | Latest Price (EUR) | Prev. Price (EUR) | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peas dried, green | GB | London | FOB | 0.909 | 0.92 | 2026-10-24 |
| Peas dried, marrowfat | GB | London | FOB | 1.15 | 1.18 | 2026-10-24 |
| Peas dried, green 98% | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.19 | 0.18 | 2026-10-22 |
| Peas dried, yellow 98% | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.16 | 0.16 | 2026-10-22 |
The modest step‑down in GB FOB values since early October indicates light downward pressure in Europe, while Ukrainian FCA prices are broadly steady with a slight uptick in green peas, reflecting ongoing logistical risk and export demand.
Supply & Demand
India’s role as the key demand center for tur continues to dominate the pea balance in Asia. Between January and August 2026, imports rose from about 434,000 tonnes to roughly 625,000 tonnes, a 44% increase, with Mozambique as the leading supplier and Myanmar, Tanzania and Sudan also significant. Despite this inflow, domestic prices have turned mixed because dal mills are buying cautiously and imported stocks are readily available.
On the production side, India’s kharif tur area is slightly higher year‑on‑year, but below‑normal and erratic rainfall in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat is raising concern over yield losses and quality. Market participants expect new domestic arrivals mainly from December onwards, leaving a multi‑month window in which import flows and policy will remain crucial to cover domestic demand and stabilize prices.
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Fundamentals & Weather
Fundamentals currently feature a tug‑of‑war between strong import cover and latent weather risk. Elevated import volumes and weak dal mill offtake are exerting short‑term pressure on tur prices, indirectly capping upside in related pea segments. However, if rainfall deficits in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat translate into a materially smaller kharif crop, the comfortable balance could tighten quickly once current imported stocks are absorbed.
Weather reports point to earlier rainfall shortages across these key states, with some late relief but not enough to fully allay fears over crop performance. Until clearer yield indications emerge during harvesting from December onwards, the global peas market must factor in the risk that India could maintain or even increase its import requirements into early 2027.
Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Short term (next 2–4 weeks): Ample imported tur stocks and subdued dal mill demand in India argue for slightly softer to sideways pricing in international peas, especially for standard grades, while GB FOB peas may see limited downside after recent corrections.
- Medium term (Dec–Q1 2027): If kharif yields in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat disappoint, India may sustain elevated import demand even after new‑crop arrivals, providing a floor to Black Sea and EU pea prices.
- Trading stance: End‑users may continue scale‑in buying on dips, particularly in Ukrainian green and yellow peas where FCA prices remain competitive. Producers and exporters should consider moderate hedging of Q1 2027 exposure given the asymmetric upside risk linked to Indian weather and policy.
3‑day price indication: GB FOB peas likely to trade in a narrow, slightly soft range; Ukrainian FCA peas expected to remain broadly stable with a mild upward bias for green peas as export interest from South Asia persists.