Indian Bajra Rally Ripples Through Global Millet and Feed Markets

Indian bajra (pearl millet) prices are firming despite a strongly higher crop, as aggressive demand from poultry and cattle feed manufacturers tightens local availability. The resulting price momentum is beginning to underpin sentiment in the wider millet complex, with buyers reassessing bajra’s role as a cost-effective substitute for corn and oilseed cakes in compound feed. India’s current bajra season is marked by a rare combination of a bumper harvest and robust consumption growth. Even with an estimated 54–55% year‑on‑year increase in production to around 16 million tonnes, intensified feed-sector buying has absorbed much of the additional supply. This comes at a time when Indian corn and protein meals are under upward price pressure, encouraging feed mills to rebalance rations toward bajra. Internationally, spot quotations for millet from Ukraine, China and the EU remain comparatively moderate, but the strength in India’s domestic bajra market is a clear bullish signal for the broader millet and coarse-grain feed complex.

Prices

According to domestic trade reports, bajra prices in selected Indian markets have risen from about US$23.79 to US$28.29 per quintal, with traders flagging the possibility of a further increase of roughly US$3.17 per quintal if current demand persists. This rally is unfolding against a backdrop of firm Indian corn values, where feed-grade maize prices have climbed over recent months and are expected to remain under pressure due to weather-related yield concerns and expanding ethanol demand.

Export- and Europe-focused millet indications show a modestly firmer, but still competitive, structure. Latest spot offers in EUR point to:

These quotations confirm a gently rising trend for Ukrainian inshell millet and a slight uptick for organic Chinese kernels, consistent with firmer sentiment emanating from South Asia’s bajra market.

Supply & Demand

India’s bajra production for the current season is estimated at around 16 million tonnes, roughly 54–55% above last year’s level. Despite this substantial supply increase, domestic consumption is expanding quickly, with some feed and industrial market segments reporting a 40–45% rise in bajra use. This reflects a strategic shift among poultry and cattle feed manufacturers seeking alternatives to higher‑priced corn and oilseed cakes.

National retail data show bajra (whole) trading at a moderate price premium to some other coarse cereals, indicating healthy food and feed demand without evidence of acute scarcity. At the same time, India’s 2026 monsoon has ended about 13% below normal, but kharif sowing for pulses and coarse cereals is only slightly below last year, suggesting that the bumper bajra outcome is credible and that supply risks from weather are manageable near term.

Outside India, millet supply from Black Sea and European origins appears adequate, with Ukraine and Poland offering both inshell and hulled product into export channels. However, if India’s feed sector continues to pull aggressively on bajra, the country’s import demand for alternative feed grains could rise, indirectly tightening global small‑grain balances and supporting export quotations.

Fundamentals & Feed Economics

The key driver of the current bajra rally is feed-sector economics. Rising Indian corn prices—linked to deficient rains in parts of the maize belt and strong competition from the ethanol sector—are lifting poultry feed costs and making bajra a more attractive energy source in compound rations. Recent analysis highlights that feed corn prices have moved higher since April, with industry participants warning of further gains if weather and policy constraints persist.

At the same time, protein meals such as soybean meal remain comparatively expensive, with some estimates showing more than 40% year‑on‑year increases following a smaller soybean crop. This has encouraged feed formulators to optimize least‑cost rations by maximising bajra inclusion where technically feasible. The result is a sharp, demand‑led increase in bajra consumption—up by about 40–45% in certain industrial and feed channels—which is absorbing the larger harvest and tightening spot availability in key mandis.

From a global perspective, this dynamic positions millet and bajra as increasingly important components of the feed grain matrix, especially in years when corn and protein ingredients are constrained. If India’s corn‑ethanol expansion continues and weather risks linger, structural demand for bajra in feed could remain elevated, supporting a higher price floor for the broader millet complex over the medium term.

Weather & Crop Outlook

The 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a rainfall deficit of roughly 13% versus the long‑period average, but resilient acreage, adequate reservoirs and improved irrigation in central and western India have contained the impact on kharif crop output. Coarse cereals acreage is only marginally below last year’s level, and central India—an important bajra zone—has fared relatively better than the south and east.

Short‑term weather forecasts and seasonal assessments continue to highlight El Niño–related uncertainty, particularly for the coming winter maize crop. If maize yields underperform, the relative value of bajra in feed may increase further, sustaining demand through the marketing year. However, for now, the existing bumper bajra harvest and only mildly weaker kharif sowing overall suggest that supply-side weather risks are secondary to demand‑side drivers.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Market participants broadly expect bajra quotations to remain firm, with traders signalling possible additional gains of around US$3.17 per quintal if current feed-sector buying continues. The sustainability of this move will depend on the pace of arrivals, the size of privately held stocks and evolving price relationships with corn and oilseed cakes.

• Feed manufacturers (India): Lock in a portion of bajra requirements on price dips, but keep ration formulas flexible to switch between bajra and maize depending on relative prices and availability.
• Exporters (Ukraine, EU, China): Monitor Indian demand closely; a prolonged domestic bajra rally could boost regional interest in imported millet and support offers, particularly for higher‑purity hulled kernels.
• Importers (EU and MENA feed users): Take advantage of still‑moderate FOB quotations for Chinese and Ukrainian millet to diversify feed grain supply, while watching Indian price signals as an early indicator of tighter global small‑grain balances.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication

• India bajra (domestic mandis): Bias slightly upward as strong poultry and cattle feed demand persists and traders test higher offers.
• Ukraine millet (FCA/FOB Odesa): Mildly firm tone after recent increments in inshell and hulled quotations, but still competitive versus other feed grains.
• China and EU millet (FOB/EXW): Mostly steady to slightly firmer, tracking sentiment from India’s bajra market and the broader feed grain complex.