Indian Bajra Strengthens on Feed Demand as Global Millet Values Edge Higher

Indian bajra prices are firming even as production jumps by more than half, with robust feed and industrial demand offsetting the impact of larger supplies. Global millet kernels are also edging higher, particularly for Chinese and Ukrainian origins, signaling a broadly supported millet complex. India’s millet market is being driven by strong livestock and industrial demand at a time of elevated feed costs across the grain complex. Bajra (pearl millet) has become increasingly attractive to poultry and cattle feed manufacturers as corn, mustard cake and cottonseed cake prices rise, prompting active substitution in rations. At the same time, weak monsoon conditions and competing industrial grain use are keeping overall feed markets tight, reinforcing interest in coarse cereals such as bajra. Against this backdrop, export-oriented millet kernels from China, Ukraine and Poland show a modest upward trend, reflecting steady international interest in both conventional and organic millet.

Prices

Bajra prices in key consuming markets have strengthened despite a much larger Indian harvest. Quotes are reported near US$28.55 per quintal versus approximately US$23.79 in an earlier period, highlighting a notable year-on-year gain in local currency terms driven by feed demand rather than scarcity.

Internationally, current quotations in EUR confirm a broadly firm tone for millet. Chinese hulled yellow millet kernels FOB Beijing are indicated at EUR 0.99/mt for organic 99.90% purity and EUR 0.89/mt for conventional 99.95% purity, both slightly above previous levels. Ukrainian hulled yellow millet seeds FOB Odesa recently increased to EUR 0.337/mt from EUR 0.327/mt, while Polish EXW hulled millet at EUR 0.75/mt has established a new reference level for EU-origin product.

Supply & Demand

India’s current bajra season has seen a substantial production recovery, with output estimated around 16 million tonnes, roughly 54–55% above last year. Despite this surge, demand from poultry feed, cattle feed and allied consuming industries has expanded sharply, with consumption reportedly up by about 40–45% in some segments.

Higher prices for corn and key protein meals are prompting compound feed manufacturers to increase the share of bajra in rations. Recent analysis of the Indian feed sector highlights intense pressure from elevated maize costs and ethanol-driven grain demand, leading feed producers to more actively evaluate alternative coarse grains such as pearl millet in order to manage feed bills.

At the same time, broader food inflation in India remains elevated, and weak monsoon performance has tightened feed grain balances, pushing livestock producers to seek lower-cost energy sources. This environment is supportive for bajra off-take both in feed channels and, to a lesser extent, in food uses where millets benefit from their positioning as nutritious cereals.

Fundamentals

Fundamental support for bajra prices rests on two pillars: strong industrial and feed demand, and cross-commodity price relationships. Elevated costs for corn, mustard cake, cottonseed cake and other traditional feed ingredients are making bajra more attractive on a relative basis. This price-driven substitution effect helps explain why millet prices are firming even as physical availability improves.

New-crop bajra supplies are already flowing into key northern Indian states such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan, indicating that logistical constraints rather than outright shortage are shaping short-term price behavior. Concurrently, reports of rising feed inflation and narrower margins in poultry and dairy underline that compound feed manufacturers are incentivized to lock in competitively priced coarse grains, including bajra, ahead of further cost increases.

On the global side, millet production projections for India and other origins suggest only modest changes, but active feed use is drawing on available stocks. International demand for millet kernels, particularly from health-focused food processors and niche feed users, supports the current firm price structure for Chinese, Ukrainian and European origins.

Weather & Regional Outlook

Weather remains a key risk factor for India’s coarse grain complex. The current season has been marked by a weaker monsoon, with drought conditions in several regions contributing to higher feed and food inflation and tightening margins for poultry and dairy producers.

While substantial new-crop bajra arrivals in northern India are helping stabilize local availability, continued rainfall deficits or heat stress later in the season could affect fodder availability and rabi crop prospects, indirectly sustaining demand for stored coarse grains. For exporters in the Black Sea and EU, weather has been less of a short-term constraint, and logistical factors and currency moves are likely to play a larger role than yield shocks in the near-term millet price formation.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

Looking ahead, strong industrial and feed demand is expected to continue supporting bajra and broader millet prices. However, India’s significantly larger harvest and available inventories are likely to cap the upside and reduce the probability of an extended price rally, especially if other coarse grains become more competitively priced later in the season.

For the coming weeks, the combination of elevated feed costs, ongoing festive-season food demand and tight coarse grain balances suggests millet prices will remain firm to slightly higher rather than softening sharply. Any policy moves on corn imports, ethanol blending, or grain stock releases could shift relative pricing between corn and bajra, altering feed substitution patterns and, by extension, millet price trajectories.

Trading recommendations

• Feed manufacturers in India should continue to secure bajra coverage on price dips, as strong demand and elevated alternative feed costs are likely to keep bajra relatively competitive through the current quarter.
• Export buyers of millet kernels from China and Ukraine may consider staggered purchases, as current EUR-denominated offers are edging higher but are still underpinned by comfortable global supply.
• Producers and traders should monitor Indian policy discussions on maize imports and ethanol blending, as any easing of corn tightness could temper incremental feed demand for bajra later in the marketing year.

3-day regional price indication

• India (bajra, domestic mandis): Prices are expected to stay firm with a mild upward bias as feed demand remains strong and festive-season food demand supports coarse grain values.
• China (FOB Beijing millet kernels): EUR prices for both organic and conventional hulled millet are likely to remain stable to slightly firm, supported by steady export interest and recently observed small price increases.
• Black Sea & EU (Ukraine FOB Odesa, Poland EXW): Millet seed and kernel offers are expected to hold at current levels, with modest upside risk from freight and currency factors rather than immediate supply shortages.