Indian Chickpea FOB Prices Edge Higher as Festive Support Fades

Indian chickpea FOB prices out of New Delhi and Rajkot are edging higher despite early signs of softer domestic sentiment post-festivals. Tight local stocks, cautious farmer selling and only gradually increasing competition from cheaper yellow peas are keeping export offers supported for now. At the same time, government stock releases and the normal progress of rabi sowing point to a more balanced market into November. Clear, dry weather across North India and the Delhi region should favour field preparations and early sowing, reducing immediate weather risk. Export buyers face a narrow window: near-term firmness driven by residual festive demand and limited on-farm selling, but growing downside risk later in November as new Australian supplies and ongoing Indian stock auctions weigh on prices.

FOB price snapshot (EUR)

Supply, demand and policy drivers

• Domestic Indian chickpea prices have recently come under mild downward pressure after the main festive period, as demand for chana dal and besan normalises and the government continues to offload stocks via NAFED.
• Nevertheless, spot market levels remain firm versus the government’s minimum support framework, with earlier weeks marked by strong festive demand and tight on-farm stocks that limited selling.
• New-crop chickpea arrivals are ramping up in Australia, while India’s rabi chickpea sowing has begun but lags last year’s pace, with official data showing sown area in late October materially below year-ago levels.
• Yellow peas are arriving into India in larger volumes under the current duty-free import window, offering buyers a cheaper protein alternative and capping the upside for chickpea prices over the coming months.
• Wholesale mandi data show kabuli chickpea median prices around the equivalent of the low-90s per kg in rupees as of 31 October, underscoring still-elevated domestic wholesale levels relative to historic norms.

Market fundamentals and price structure

FOB offers from India have strengthened across the size spectrum through October, with New Delhi chickpeas moving up about EUR 0.12–0.14 from early-October levels. Larger calibres (42–44 and 44–46) now command a premium over smaller sizes, but the curve remains relatively flat, reflecting broad-based demand from millers and exporters.

Mexican chickpeas show a different pattern: the prime 42–44 size is stable at EUR 1.23 FOB Mexico City, while smaller 75–80 count material has firmed modestly. This leaves Indian origins competitively priced against Mexican 42–44s, particularly for buyers who can handle slightly smaller calibres.

The still-firm mandi structure in India, combined with relatively low imports so far in 2026 compared with last year, supports current FOB levels. Yet the start of Australian shipments and increased availability of yellow peas are already shifting sentiment, with recent reports highlighting softer bids in government stock tenders and some easing in chana dal prices.

Weather and rabi sowing outlook – India (IN focus)

For New Delhi and the broader North Indian plains, the latest official forecast points to mainly clear skies, maximum temperatures just below 30°C and minimums around 16–17°C over 1–3 November, with no significant rainfall expected.

These conditions are generally favourable for land preparation and early chickpea sowing in rabi 2026–27, helping to conserve soil moisture after the monsoon. With no major short-term weather threats indicated, near-term yield risk appears limited, reinforcing the medium-term downside risk to prices if rabi acreage normalises later in November.

Short-term trading outlook

• Export buyers (FOB India): Consider staggered coverage for November–December shipments, as current EUR-levels remain supported but could soften if Australian supply and government stock sales accelerate later in the month.
• Indian sellers: Near-term, the firm FOB structure rewards incremental sales, especially in larger calibres. However, avoid overcommitting forward volumes until clearer data on rabi sowing and early crop conditions emerge.
• Importers in South Asia/Middle East: Monitor relative pricing versus yellow peas and Mexican chickpeas; if Indian domestic sentiment weakens further post-festive season, better buying opportunities in smaller sizes may appear.

3-day regional price indication (direction only)

• India – New Delhi (FOB, all sizes): Bias: steady to slightly firm as exporters test higher offers but face emerging resistance from buyers.
• India – Rajkot (FOB bulk chickpeas): Bias: steady with limited liquidity; small upside possible if local demand stays active.
• Mexico – Mexico City (FOB 42–44 & 75–80): Bias: steady; no fresh fundamental shock visible in the very near term.