Indian Green Pea Market Tightens as Canada Crop Falls and Import Costs Rise

Indian green pea prices are set to remain under upward pressure as lower Canadian production, reduced domestic inventories and India’s 30% import duty combine with higher global replacement costs. India’s green pea market is entering a tighter phase. Domestic production has declined, port inventories have been substantially drawn down, and food industry demand remains resilient. At the same time, Canada’s new pea crop has been hit by adverse weather, cutting output versus last year, while global trade disruptions and firm offers from key origins are lifting import costs for Indian buyers. With the import duty on peas still at 30% and international prices firmer, landed costs have risen, reinforcing the recent strength in local green pea quotations and limiting downside potential in the near term.

Prices

Indian green pea quotations in selected wholesale markets have strengthened as cheaper, older port stocks have been cleared and replacement cargoes arrive at significantly higher cost. Domestic prices are being supported both by tighter physical availability and by competing demand from food processors and vegetable markets.

Internationally, pea prices show a mixed but generally firm picture. In Ukraine, dried green peas (98% purity, FCA Odesa) are currently quoted at EUR 0.19/kg, unchanged from the previous week, while yellow peas of similar quality (FCA Odesa) stand at EUR 0.16/kg, also steady. In the UK, dried green peas (FOB London) are at EUR 0.909/kg and marrowfat peas at EUR 1.15/kg, both slightly below mid-October levels, indicating some easing after prior strength.

Supply & Demand

India’s green pea balance has tightened notably. Domestic production has fallen, while older inventories at ports have been “substantially reduced,” leaving the market more dependent on fresh arrivals. At the same time, end-use demand from food processors, vegetable markets and other consuming industries remains solid, preventing any meaningful demand-side relief.

On the import side, India’s standard customs tariff for peas remains at 30%, directly increasing the cost of inbound shipments. Recent trade data also show India’s broader pulse imports rising sharply in early 2026/27, with pea arrivals up strongly year-on-year as buyers seek to compensate for weak monsoon performance and shortfalls in domestic pulses. This reinforces India’s role as a key demand driver in global pea and pulse markets and underpins higher offer levels from exporters.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Canada, a core supplier to India, is facing a smaller pea crop. Adverse weather has reduced Canadian pea production by an estimated 17–18% versus last year, tightening exportable supplies compared with 2025/26. This decline comes on top of already disrupted Black Sea trade flows and harvest delays in parts of the Canadian Prairies, which have raised concerns over availability and quality for some lots.

At the same time, Canada’s dry pea sector is entering 2026/27 with high carry-in stocks following a larger previous crop, but the forecast year-on-year production drop and stronger import demand from India, China and other destinations are expected to draw those stocks down. For India specifically, higher international offers (particularly from Canada and Black Sea origins) are magnified by the 30% import duty, pushing up landed costs and feeding directly into firmer wholesale prices.

Domestically in India, wholesale peas prices reported across multiple mandis are currently in the upper part of their 12‑month range, consistent with the narrative of tighter supplies and stronger replacement values. While some regional price corrections are evident, the all‑India median remains elevated for the season, reflecting underlying tightness.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather remains a key risk for both exporting and importing regions. In Canada, recent national agroclimate assessments point to a mix of excess rainfall in parts of the Prairies and continued drought in western regions, creating both harvest delays and localized stress for pulses. These conditions are consistent with lower average yields and some quality downgrades in 2026.

In India, the southwest monsoon has underperformed, heightening concerns over kharif pulse output and water availability for the upcoming rabi season. Poor monsoon performance can translate into both weaker domestic pulse production and stronger import demand for peas, particularly if winter rains also disappoint. Against this backdrop, the outlook in India’s green pea segment points to a structurally tighter balance until new-crop supplies improve and inventories are rebuilt.

30–90 Day Market Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price direction: With reduced Canadian production, lower Indian inventories and elevated import costs, green pea prices in India are likely to remain firm to slightly higher over the next 1–3 months, barring a sudden policy change on import duties.
• For Indian buyers: Food processors and wholesalers may consider gradual, staggered coverage for Q1 2027 needs rather than waiting for substantial price corrections, as downside appears limited while supply risks persist.
• For exporters (Canada, Black Sea, Europe): Maintain a constructive stance on India-focused sales programs, but monitor policy risk around import duties and any government intervention aimed at curbing food inflation.
• For EU/UK and Black Sea traders: Current stable-to-softer export quotations in Europe versus firm replacement costs into India suggest basis opportunities, especially for green peas, but logistics and policy risks must be carefully priced in.

3-Day Directional View (Key Hubs)

• India domestic green peas (wholesale): Sideways to slightly firmer, with continued support from tight spot availability and high import costs.
• Ukraine export (FCA Odesa, green & yellow peas): Largely stable over the next few days as the market digests prior gains and monitors Black Sea logistics.
• UK export (FOB London, green and marrowfat peas): Mildly soft bias following recent small declines, though downside is likely limited by global demand from India and the EU.