Indian Sesame FOB New Delhi Extends Rally on Tight Nearby Supply

Indian sesame FOB prices in New Delhi continue to trend higher into early November, with broad gains across white hulled, EU‑grade and black grades, reflecting tight nearby availability despite expectations of a much larger 2026 kharif crop. Indian mandi prices remain well above the official MSP and seasonal patterns typically favour firm values around October–November, suggesting that the current strength has a solid fundamental base rather than being a short‑lived spike.

Prices

Export offers from New Delhi have moved up in the second half of October. Conventional hulled sesame 99.90% FOB New Delhi is indicated at EUR 1.58, up from EUR 1.55 in the previous quote. Organic hulled sortex 99.95% stands at EUR 1.52 FOB, versus 1.47 earlier. Hulled EU‑grade 99.97% is now at EUR 1.91 FOB, while EU‑grade 99.98% has reached EUR 1.96 FOB, both around EUR 0.06–0.07 above mid‑October levels.

Indian natural sesame grades have also firmed. Natural 99.95% is quoted at EUR 1.50 FOB New Delhi, compared with 1.43 previously, and natural 99.1% at EUR 1.47, up from 1.40. Black sesame remains the premium segment: regular black 99.90% is at EUR 2.01 FOB, semi Z black 99.95% at EUR 2.16 and super Z black 99.95% at EUR 2.31, each about EUR 0.05–0.06 above late‑October levels. Egyptian natural sesame offers have stayed broadly flat in comparison, with natural golden 99.5% at EUR 1.95 FOB Kairo and natural 99% at EUR 1.47 FOB, unchanged on the week.

Supply & Demand

Recent Indian mandi data show average sesame (til) prices across reporting markets comfortably above the 2026–27 MSP of ₹10,346 per quintal, with late‑October state averages around ₹15,153 in Gujarat, ₹14,028 in Rajasthan and ₹13,750 in Madhya Pradesh, i.e. 33–46% over MSP. This corroborates tight nearby physical supply and strong domestic buying interest, even as the kharif harvest progresses. Weekly national modal sesame prices have risen further into late October, with a median around ₹14,168 per quintal in the week to 25 October, up roughly 2.6% from the prior week.

On the medium‑term balance, India’s kharif sesame crop for 2026 is projected to more than double year‑on‑year to about 101,000 tonnes, significantly improving exportable availability compared with 2025. However, this emerging surplus is partially offset by a sharply smaller crop in Pakistan, where acreage cuts and irregular rainfall have reduced output to an estimated 250,000–280,000 tonnes, tightening regional supply. Turkish imports are running 29% higher year‑on‑year in January–August 2026, underlining resilient demand from a key hulled and tahini hub.

Fundamentals & Weather (India – IN)

Sesame harvesting in India’s kharif belt (Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh) typically takes place from late September through October, with October–November the main marketing window. A recent empirical study on Indian sesamum markets shows that wholesale prices in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh tend to peak in October–November, reflecting lean post‑harvest supplies and strong festival‑season demand. The present firmness in both mandi and FOB values is therefore broadly in line with historical seasonal patterns, but is amplified this year by earlier flood‑related quality concerns and cautious farmer selling.

Weather‑wise, the India Meteorological Department and independent forecasters describe a normal post‑monsoon transition in northwest and central India, with mostly dry conditions prevailing after late‑October showers and only light, localized rain risk. This is generally favourable for ongoing harvest, field drying and transport of sesame, reducing immediate weather risk premia in the New Delhi FOB curve for the next few days. Agronomic literature nonetheless highlights sesame’s high sensitivity to waterlogging and heavy continuous rains, which explains the strong market reaction seen earlier when northern flooding threatened yields and quality.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Market bias (next 3–5 days, India – IN): mildly bullish to sideways. Strong domestic mandi levels above MSP, combined with still‑tight nearby availability, should keep FOB New Delhi supported, though the pace of further gains may slow as more kharif seed reaches the market and weather risk fades.

• Importers / Roasters: Consider covering near‑term requirements promptly for white hulled and EU‑grade segments while the market consolidates below the latest highs; stagger purchases for Q1 2027 to benefit if increased Indian export supply eases prices after the main marketing season.
• Indian Exporters: Use the current rally in black and premium EU‑grade offers (e.g. above EUR 2.00 FOB for black types) to lock in forward sales where quality is assured, but avoid overcommitting volumes until actual harvest receipts confirm the projected production rebound.
• End‑users in Europe / MENA: Diversify origin where possible by combining Indian hulled and EU‑grade with relatively stable Egyptian natural offers, to mitigate further upside risk from any renewed Indian supply disruptions.

3‑Day Indicative Direction – India (IN, New Delhi FOB)

• White hulled & EU‑grade: Bias steady to slightly firmer as Indian mandi prices remain 30–45% over MSP and export demand is seasonally strong; modest further upward drift is more likely than a sharp correction over the next three days.
• Natural white grades: Expected largely steady with a mild upward tone, tracking domestic seed values and improved but still normal post‑monsoon logistics.
• Black sesame (regular / Z grades): Upside risk persists in the very near term given tight quality supplies and robust festival and export demand; some consolidation is possible if additional kharif arrivals materialize smoothly.