Jordan’s Cheaper Barley Tender Signals Softer Black Sea Feed Values

Jordan’s latest barley tender result points to mildly easing import costs, with C&F prices slipping versus mid-October while demand for feed barley in the MENA region remains firm. Barley cash markets in Europe and the Black Sea are broadly stable, but the small price cut achieved by Jordan underscores a slightly softer tone in international feed barley. Competitive offers from major global traders and comfortable nearby availabilities are capping upside, even as steady livestock demand keeps a base under prices. Market participants now look to upcoming tenders and winter weather risks to gauge whether this modest downward adjustment in delivered values will continue into early 2027.

Prices

Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 50,000 tonnes of feed barley on 21 October 2026 at an estimated US$302.25/MT C&F for first-half February 2027 shipment, down from US$307/MT C&F for 60,000 tonnes booked on 14 October for late January shipment. The US$4.75/MT reduction highlights growing competition among exporters and slightly softer delivered values for early-2027 positions.

In the physical European and Black Sea markets, recent indications from our platform show largely sideways moves. German feed-grade barley (moisture 14% max, EXW Drentwede) last changed at EUR 0.222/kg on 21 October 2026, marginally below levels seen in mid-October. Ukrainian barley for cattle feed FOB Odesa was recently indicated at EUR 0.119/kg, while Ukrainian feed-grade CPT Odesa traded around EUR 0.144/kg on 20 October 2026, suggesting only modest day‑to‑day volatility.

Supply & Demand

The latest Jordanian tender confirms sustained import demand for feed grains in the Middle East, despite slightly lower price levels. Jordan secured the volume from Soufflet, while alternative offers from Al Ghurair, Olam, Bunge and Dreyfus clustered only US$3–9/MT higher, indicating ample exporter interest and comfortable exportable surpluses in key origins.

This close price spread suggests that multiple suppliers are actively competing to place barley into the MENA region. The combination of firm regional feed demand and intense competition among traders is translating into buyer-friendly tender outcomes, while still ensuring reliable supply into the first quarter of 2027.

Fundamentals

Fundamentally, the tender results underline a market that is neither tight nor oversupplied. The ability of Jordan to trim its C&F purchase price within a week, while attracting several major trading houses, points to comfortable nearby availability in the Black Sea and EU export corridors. At the same time, the relatively small price decline indicates that downside is limited by ongoing livestock sector demand.

Locally quoted prices in Germany and Ukraine mirror this picture: moves over the past three weeks have been measured, not sharply directional. EXW German values have drifted slightly lower from late September highs, while Ukrainian FOB and CPT quotations have fluctuated within a narrow band, signaling a balanced market where logistics, freight, and currency swings may become key short‑term drivers.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

Jordan’s latest deal suggests that further tenders from regional buyers could test the bottom of the current price range, especially if exporter competition remains intense and weather in major origins stays benign. The February 2027 shipment window also gives exporters some flexibility to manage logistics and hedging, limiting the risk premium in offers.

• Importers in MENA: Consider staggering purchases via multiple tenders; current C&F levels show that small timing gains are possible as long as competition among traders remains high.
• Exporters (EU/Black Sea): Maintain offer discipline; tender results indicate that aggressive underbidding may only achieve limited volume advantages in a tightly priced field.
• Feed users in Europe: With EXW and CPT prices broadly stable, look at forward coverage into Q1 2027 on dips, but avoid over‑extending coverage given only modest recent downside.

Short-Term Weather & Price Direction (3 Days)

Weather in key barley export origins (EU and Black Sea) is not expected to cause immediate supply disruptions over the coming three days based on the latest forecasts, keeping logistics and harvest quality risks limited in the very short term. As a result, international barley prices are likely to remain range‑bound near current levels, with tenders such as Jordan’s continuing to set the reference for regional C&F values.

For the next three trading days, we expect:

• EU inland (Germany, EXW): Slightly softer to steady, reflecting recent small declines and cautious buyer interest.
• Ukraine CPT/FOB: Mostly steady, with minor intraday moves driven by freight and currency but no strong trend.
• MENA C&F values: Stable to marginally weaker, as upcoming tenders may seek to leverage the small discount achieved in Jordan’s latest purchase.