Lentils: Softer Masoor Prices Now, Seasonal Support Ahead

Masoor lentil prices are currently drifting lower in India as dal mills buy cautiously, while competitively priced Canadian and Australian imports cap any meaningful rally. Improved overseas crop prospects and regular arrivals are keeping domestic markets well supplied, but seasonal demand from eastern India toward late November could slow or partially reverse the downside. The market is thus balanced between near-term pressure from comfortable global supply and restrained mill activity, and a medium-term uptick in consumption as winter demand builds in Bihar, West Bengal and Assam. International offers, especially for Canadian red and green types, remain attractive versus local masoor, reinforcing India’s import pull. Overall, the bias is mildly bearish in the short term, but with a rising floor expected as the seasonal demand window opens.

Prices

Indian whole masoor and masoor dal prices have eased modestly over the past week, consistent with reports of only marginal declines in several mandis as mills delay larger purchases. Wholesale indicators suggest whole masoor values are slightly below their recent peaks, even as they remain above the new MSP, pointing to a cooling but still relatively firm domestic market.

FOB Canadian values have softened in tandem: Ottawa offers for dried lentils as of 17 October 2026 show Lentils dried Red football at 2.11 EUR/mt FOB (down from 2.13 EUR), Laird Green at 1.22 EUR/mt FOB (from 1.24 EUR) and Eston Green at 1.18 EUR/mt FOB (from 1.20 EUR). Chinese small green lentils from Beijing have also edged lower, with conventional at 0.86 EUR/mt FOB and organic at 0.92 EUR/mt FOB. These declines underline the global softness underpinning India’s import parity.

Supply & Demand

Improved production prospects in key exporters, notably Canada and Australia, are central to the current tone. Expectations of better overseas crops and regular shipment programs into India are explicitly limiting the scope for domestic masoor price appreciation, as importers can rely on a steady pipeline of competitively priced cargoes. This has encouraged dal mills to buy hand-to-mouth rather than chase nearby stocks, contributing to the marginal price declines in Indian markets.

On the demand side, underlying pulse consumption remains solid, but current retail prices for masoor dal in India are already elevated versus historical norms, prompting some consumer resistance and trading down to alternative pulses in the short run. Nevertheless, seasonal consumption is expected to rise as winter sets in, particularly in eastern states where masoor and masoor dal are dietary staples, setting the stage for firmer offtake from late November onward.

Fundamentals

Fundamentally, the market is characterised by comfortable near-term availability and improving new-crop prospects. Reports highlight that imported Canadian and Australian masoor are not only readily available but also priced advantageously against domestic masoor, reinforcing a ceiling on local prices. At the same time, dal mills have adopted a cautious procurement strategy, keeping pipeline stocks lean and relying on frequent spot purchases instead of forward coverage, which dampens immediate demand.

Policy factors are also supportive of supply: India’s openness to imports in pulses and the recently announced higher MSP for masoor at 7,000 rupees per quintal for the 2026–27 rabi season create a backstop but do not yet tighten spot markets, as mandi prices hover modestly below or around this level in several regions. With no major weather or logistics shocks reported in key exporting origins over the past few days, fundamental risk in the very short term leans to the downside rather than a sudden squeeze.

Near-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

Looking ahead to late October and November, the lentil complex is likely to trade in a soft-to-sideways pattern before gradually finding support as seasonal demand from Bihar, West Bengal and Assam accelerates. The combination of improved overseas production prospects and continuing vessel arrivals into Indian ports should prevent sharp rallies, but the anticipated pick-up in consumption during the winter months is expected to stabilise prices and potentially lift them off current lows as mills re-enter the market more aggressively.

• Importers and large buyers: Consider scaling in coverage on breaks while Canadian and Australian masoor remain clearly competitive to domestic supplies. Focus on nearby to medium-term positions ahead of the late-November seasonal demand window.
• Dal mills: Maintaining hand-to-mouth buying remains justified in the immediate term given the slight downward drift in prices, but extending coverage modestly before end-November could reduce the risk of paying up if demand tightens.
• Producers and stockists: With global supply comfortable, aggressive holding for significantly higher prices appears risky; selective sales into current strength, while retaining some inventory for the seasonal demand phase, may be preferable.

Over the next three trading days, international FOB values for Canadian and Chinese lentils are expected to remain slightly soft to stable, while Indian physical masoor markets are likely to trade in a narrow, mildly weak range pending clearer signals from mill buying and eastern Indian demand.