Macadamias: Tight Near-Term Balance Meets Looming 2026 Supply Wave

Macadamia prices are holding firm into late 2026 on low carry-in stocks and tight whole-kernel availability, but a much larger 2026 crop across South Africa, Australia and Kenya is starting to cap further upside and introduces medium-term downside risk. Entering 2026, macadamias benefited from a significantly short 2025 crop, especially in South Africa and Australia, which kept inventories lean and underpinned whole-kernel premiums. As the 2026 harvest advances, production is recovering strongly across all main origins, while China’s buying remains cautious despite a tariff cut on South African product. This is creating a finely balanced market: short-term firmness driven by low stocks and strong competition for nuts-in-shell (NIS), versus growing concern that expanding supply may outpace demand into 2027 if kernel offtake and Chinese in-shell buying do not accelerate.

Prices

Near-term macadamia pricing remains supported by low global carry-in and particularly tight availability of high-quality whole kernels. Early-season contracting was done at firm levels as buyers sought cover against the risk of further supply tightness.

Indicative market data for Kenyan product show stable kernels: Organic Macadamia Nut Kernels, origin Kenya, are currently quoted at 25.2 EUR/kg FOB KE, unchanged since mid-October 2026 after a marginal easing earlier in the month. This flat profile signals that buyers are not yet forcing prices higher, but sellers are also unwilling to discount materially given still-limited spot supply and firm grower price expectations.

Looking forward, prices are expected to stay broadly supported in the very short term, especially for whole grades, but the incoming volume from the 2026 crop should gradually exert pressure first on lower-grade kernels and then on broader kernel price structures if demand lags.

Supply & Demand

Global macadamia supply is transitioning from the pronounced tightness of 2025 toward a more comfortable 2026 balance. The 2026 crop is recovering across major origins, reversing last year’s shortages:

• South Africa: 2026 output is estimated around 93,000–95,000 MT NIS, a strong rebound versus 2025 and broadly aligned with recent independent estimates that place the crop near 95,000 t.
• Australia: The 2026 crop is projected around 56,000–58,000 MT NIS, supported by improved flowering and maturing orchards; this would significantly exceed 2025 production, although localized flooding earlier in the season has created some regional variability in yields and quality.
• Kenya & East Africa: Early assessments point to year-on-year production growth, with adequate rainfall supporting nut development and a notable increase in supply expected as harvesting accelerates over the next 2–3 months.

On the demand side, structural drivers such as health-focused snacking and use in bakery and confectionery remain constructive. However, China – the key world in-shell market – is currently a swing factor. Despite China cutting import duties on South African NIS and kernels from 12% to 0%, buying interest has been weak and slow, with many Chinese in-shell buyers delaying procurement in anticipation of lower prices as the large 2026 crop becomes fully visible.

Other major import regions, notably the EU and US, remain important kernel destinations but face their own headwinds. Reports of elevated macadamia stocks in parts of Europe and softer year-on-year import volumes into the US underline that consumption growth is not yet fully matching the rapid supply expansion. This divergence between rising global production and more cautious demand is the main medium-term bearish overhang for the market.

Weather & Origin Focus

South Africa: The 2026 season began with cautious optimism, but persistent heavy rainfall in key growing regions has raised operational and quality concerns. While volumes are still expected to recover significantly from 2025, processors are watching crack-out rates and kernel quality closely, especially for premiums into China and high-spec kernel markets. The newly zeroed Chinese import duty offers upside, but quality issues or logistics delays could limit how much of the theoretical demand boost is realized.

Australia: Improved flowering and orchard maturity underpin the projected rebound in the 2026 crop, yet final outcomes hinge on weather during the tail end of harvest – historically a critical period for both yield and quality. Farmgate prices there remain broadly in line with last year, supported by ongoing demand for Australian kernels. However, a weaker USD versus AUD is compressing export margins and may make Australian origin relatively expensive in some destination markets compared with African suppliers.

Kenya and East Africa: Adequate rainfall has supported healthy nut development, and early harvest in some Kenyan regions is about to begin or already underway. Structural policy uncertainty remains important: Kenya had banned NIS exports to promote domestic processing, and a limited, recently closed export window did not fully clear local stocks, leaving sizeable unsold volumes. Any further policy adjustments on NIS exports will be crucial for how quickly Kenyan product can rebalance between the domestic processing sector and export channels, with knock-on effects for kernel supply and regional price dynamics.

Fundamentals: Bullish vs Bearish Drivers

Bullish factors

• Tight whole-kernel supply: High-quality whole grades remain limited after the short 2025 crop, sustaining premiums and underpinning firm nearby pricing.
• Low global carry-in: The market entered 2026 with lean inventories, particularly for desirable kernel grades, keeping the balance tight despite the larger crop now coming to market.
• Chinese tariff cut on South African product: China reducing its import duty on South African NIS and kernels from 12% to 0% is structurally supportive for demand and could lift contracting volumes once buyers re-enter.
• Firm farmgate prices: Strong competition for NIS across origins and elevated grower price expectations maintain a high cost base for processors, limiting the scope for aggressive price cutting in the short term.

Bearish factors

• Larger 2026 crop: Strong production recoveries in South Africa, Australia, Kenya and other origins markedly increase available supply versus 2025, especially as the harvest peaks in the coming months.
• Slow Chinese buying: In-shell buyers in China are delaying purchases, expecting prices to soften as more of the 2026 crop hits the market, thereby dampening immediate demand.
• Policy and logistics frictions: Kenya’s evolving stance on NIS exports and logistical challenges in some African origins can temporarily create local surpluses and price pressure, especially on lower grades.
• Inventory risk in destination markets: Elevated stock levels in parts of Europe and softer import data for the US raise the risk of a more prolonged destocking phase if kernel demand does not accelerate.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

Trading outlook (next 1–3 months)

• Buyers: Maintain near-term cover for whole kernels but avoid overcommitting far forward; consider staggered purchases to benefit from potential softening as the 2026 crop is fully absorbed, especially in lower grades.
• Suppliers/processors: Prioritize contracts on whole and premium kernel grades while monitoring Chinese in-shell tender activity closely; be prepared for more competitive pricing pressure on industrial and broken grades.
• Risk management: Watch for revisions to South African and Australian final crop estimates and any changes in Kenyan NIS export policy, as these are likely to be key catalysts for price moves into early 2027.

3-day regional directional outlook

• Africa (FOB South/East Africa): Sideways to slightly firm on whole kernels as pipeline stocks remain thin, but sentiment is cautious given the larger crop backdrop.
• Australia (FOB): Mostly steady, with currency effects and competition from African origins limiting upside despite still-firm farmgate levels.
• Destination markets (CIF EU/US/Asia): Largely stable offered levels, with some sellers testing small discounts on lower grades to stimulate offtake while holding lines on whole kernels.