Overview of Peanut Demand and Supply

Mintec Global
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Demand

Frugal purchasers evaluate alternative origins to satisfy demand in an inflationary situation. The cost (loss) of doing a deal is higher than its profit. Indonesia shifted its focus to Sudan & Mozambique from India. Indian exports to Indonesia fell by nearly 70%. Vietnam subdued its consumption: China turned to Sudanese kernels and Brazilian oil. Europe simmered down its enquirers. Export data from Sudan and Brazil are spiking amid China’s play. Global exports of peanuts dropped by 12-13% since June 22.

Supply

Supply has so far been traumatic across several origins. Inflation & Covid have similar mass effects. Much of the supplier’s margin is lost on freight. Quality and volatility. Rising costs of the edible oil basket result in a supply bottleneck fanning artificially inflated prices. Peanut oil prices across various origins rose in the last three months: Brazil: 9%, India: 7%, and China: 11%

Stocks

The crops of the recently harvested regions in India & Argentina are substandard, except for Mozambique. In addition, prevailing stocks of the African parts are not food grade: a considerable carry-over stock of Argentina of 62 k tons (est.) and other LATAM may consist of higher FFA. The Indian carry-over stock is 85k tons (est.); it is challenging to forecast the Chinese stock levels. but several Luhua. Haihua and Baishas are available. Overall, stock levels are so-so,

Sentiment

The buyer’s sentiment is mixed to bearish; the supplier’s sentiment is mixed to bullish. Bottom-line: The market’s sentiments play a more significant role than trade statistics. Often it is not what buyers want to buy at what price, but it is about when they think it is the right time to take the purchase or sale decision. None the less, when there is confusion, there will be clarity, Godspeed peanut fraternity.

The peanuts bold 40-50 prices were recorded at $1,31 per kg FOB.

Source: Agrocrops