Peas Market: India’s Tur Import Wave Caps Prices but Weather Risk Lurks

India’s sharp rise in tur (pigeon pea) imports is easing domestic price pressure in the short term, even as weather-related risks threaten kharif production in key growing states. Weak dal mill demand and ample imported stocks are weighing on prices now, but potential crop losses and delayed new-crop arrivals could tighten balances later in the season. The peas complex reflects this duality: structurally tight fundamentals from earlier deficits now coexist with softer short-term demand and increased import flows into India. In Europe, dried pea quotations have eased modestly over October, while Black Sea export values are stable to slightly firmer. Market participants must navigate a narrow window of relatively comfortable supply before clarity on India’s kharif tur yields—and broader global pea availability—emerges.

Prices

Spot quotations show a mild downward correction in key pea segments:

• GB dried peas, green, London FOB: EUR 0.909 (down from EUR 0.92 on 17 October).
• GB dried peas, marrowfat, London FOB: EUR 1.15 (down from EUR 1.18 on 17 October).
• UA dried peas, green 98% purity, Odesa FCA: EUR 0.19 (up from EUR 0.18 on 15 October).
• UA dried peas, yellow 98% purity, Odesa FCA: EUR 0.16 (unchanged over the month).

This pattern points to gentle price softening in Western Europe, contrasted with largely stable to slightly firmer values in the Black Sea region, where logistical risk and steady export demand keep a floor under prices.

Supply & Demand

India remains the pivotal demand center for pigeon peas. During January–August 2026, tur imports rose about 44% to roughly 625,000 tonnes versus 434,000 tonnes a year earlier, driven by expectations of lower domestic output and policy support for duty-free inflows. Mozambique is the leading supplier, with Myanmar, Tanzania and Sudan also shipping substantial volumes. Domestic Indian prices have softened in recent weeks despite this import surge, reflecting weak offtake from dal mills, comfortable imported stocks and cautious procurement after festive-season coverage.

On the supply side, India’s kharif tur area has inched higher year-on-year, but below-normal and erratic rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka raises concerns about yield losses and quality. Trade sources highlight that final production will hinge on late-season weather and crop development, leaving significant uncertainty over 2026–27 availability.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals for tur and related pea markets are finely balanced. In the near term, elevated imports and sluggish dal processing demand argue for continued price pressure. However, structural dependence on imports—especially from East Africa and Myanmar—means any meaningful downgrade in India’s kharif crop could quickly tighten global balances and reverse the current downward drift.

Weather remains the key swing factor. Reports of unfavourable rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka, including pockets of drought stress, underpin concerns about pod filling and final yields. If damage is confirmed as harvest progresses, reduced domestic output and a slower pace of new-crop arrivals would likely support tur prices and spill over into broader pea complex sentiment later in the marketing year.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Market Outlook: Tur prices are likely to stay under pressure in the very short term, capped by high imports and weak dal mill demand. Further ahead, tighter domestic supplies and delayed arrivals may lend support, particularly if weather damage in western and southern India proves significant.

• Importers / Feed users: Use current softness in GB and Black Sea pea prices to extend coverage modestly into the first quarter, but avoid overbuying ahead of clearer information on India’s kharif tur yields.
• Producers: Consider scaling in hedges or forward sales on any weather-driven rallies, given the risk that sustained demand weakness in India’s dal sector could limit upside later.
• Traders: Monitor Indian policy signals and port arrivals closely; a slowdown in import bookings or evidence of heavier crop losses could quickly flip sentiment from bearish to neutral or mildly bullish.

Short-Term (3-Day) Directional View

*Directional only; actual prices as quoted above in EUR remain the reference.