Pistachios: Record Exports Meet Sharply Tighter 2026 Supply

U.S. pistachios enter 2026/27 with record September exports and historically high prices, but a crop expected to be roughly half of last year is transforming the market into a tight, seller‑driven environment. Domestic demand is softer, yet resilient, and the key risk now is whether consumption can be maintained at these elevated price levels until a larger 2027 "on" crop arrives. September’s strong shipment start underscores vigorous export pull from Europe, Asia and the Middle East just as global origins face their own supply challenges. U.S. marketable stocks are significantly below last year, opening offers remain selective, and buyers have accelerated coverage to secure volume and quality. Against this backdrop, organic kernel quotations in Europe are holding firm, with only marginal week‑to‑week moves. Market participants must balance short‑term scarcity and robust export flows against expectations of a production recovery in 2027.

Prices & Shipment Momentum

Total U.S. pistachio shipments in September reached 88.42 million lbs, up 40.2% versus 63.08 million lbs last year and well above the five‑year average of 65 million lbs. Export shipments climbed to 69.11 million lbs, a 64.3% year‑on‑year surge, driven by Europe, Vietnam/Hong Kong, India and Turkey. Domestic shipments, by contrast, slipped 8.1% to 19.31 million lbs, undershooting the five‑year average of 20.5 million lbs and confirming that the demand boom is heavily export‑led.

On the price side, current indicative quotations in Europe for specialty and organic segments remain firm. Organic green pistachio kernels, with skin, FOB Madrid (ES) are at 41.8 EUR/kg, unchanged across recent quotations in October 2026. Organic pistachio kernels FOB Italy are at 68.85 EUR/kg, essentially stable compared with previous indications. Organic roasted and salted in‑shell pistachios FOB Washington D.C. (US) are quoted around 22.2 EUR/kg, also unchanged since late October, illustrating how tight supply and strong export demand are preventing any meaningful price easing.

Supply & Demand Balance

Most U.S. processors now expect the 2026 crop to finish at or below 700 million lbs, implying a drop of roughly 56% from the 2025 record harvest. Even with a higher carry‑in, this points to a substantially tighter supply environment for the current marketing year. Industry data confirm that estimated marketable stocks after September shipments are markedly lower than a year earlier, reinforcing perceptions of scarcity and underpinning firm price ideas.

Export demand, especially from Europe, Vietnam, India and Turkey, is absorbing a large share of available volume. Record September exports have been reported, with Asia now the dominant growth driver and Europe maintaining its role as a key destination. At the same time, other origins are not in a position to fully relieve the market: Iran is experiencing an off year with a crop around 118,000 mt, and Turkish production is also described as disappointing, limiting alternative supply for price‑sensitive buyers.

Fundamentals: Bullish vs Bearish Forces

Supportive (Bullish) Factors

• September shipments of 88.4 million lbs significantly exceeded the five‑year average of 65 million lbs, confirming very strong season‑opening demand, particularly from export channels.
• The sharply smaller 2026 crop (at or below 700 million lbs) versus 2025 implies a much tighter balance sheet, with marketable stocks estimated up to 45% below last year despite higher carryover, leaving little buffer against further demand surprises.
• Following the publication of opening in‑shell price ideas, buyers rushed to secure coverage, and offers from processors remain limited. This disciplined selling, combined with resilient demand at high price points, is keeping the market notably firm.

Constraining (Bearish) Considerations

• Domestic U.S. shipments of 19.3 million lbs in September are below both last year and the five‑year average, suggesting some price resistance or substitution in the home market.
• With prices at or near historic highs, the pistachio sector still has to demonstrate that global consumption can be maintained without significant demand destruction, especially in more price‑sensitive snack segments.
• Market participants already anticipate 2027 as an "on" year in the alternate‑bearing cycle. Expectations of a larger crop may start to cap the long‑term upside and encourage some buyers to limit forward coverage beyond the near to mid‑term.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Guidance

Weather is no immediate driver in the very short run now that the 2026 harvest is essentially complete; the focus has shifted to shipment pace, shell quality, and how aggressively processors release limited stocks. In the coming months, export demand from Asia and Europe, together with kernel demand from industrial users, will likely determine whether prices can edge still higher or merely stay flat at elevated levels.

Trading Outlook (next 1–3 months)

• Industrial buyers (kernels and ingredients): Consider extending coverage into mid‑2027 for core specifications while liquidity is available, prioritizing smaller sizes and pieces where substitution is possible. Avoid waiting for significant price corrections that would require either weaker export demand or clearer signals of a large 2027 crop.
• Snack and branded buyers: Secure at least Q1–Q2 2027 needs, but keep some flexibility on later periods in case better availability and more competitive offers emerge ahead of the 2027 "on" crop. Explore mix optimisation (e.g., blends or smaller kernel sizes) to mitigate high raw material costs.
• Producers and processors: Maintain disciplined, phased selling strategies. Given tight stocks and strong export pull, there is little incentive to discount aggressively, but monitoring domestic demand elasticity will be key to avoiding a late‑season overhang.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication

• Europe (FOB ES/IT organic kernels): Sideways to slightly firmer; limited offers and strong export fundamentals suggest no immediate downside.
• U.S. FOB in‑shell (organic, roasted & salted): Stable; bids and offers are closely aligned, with sellers in no rush amid tight 2026 supply.
• Global reference market (export‑focused grades): Firm bias; sentiment remains bullish as buyers digest the depth of the 2026 crop shortfall.