Raisin exports surge as Turkish prices reset lower but supply risks build

Raisin exports are accelerating on the back of sharply lower Turkish export prices, even as raw material tightness and vineyard removals raise questions over medium‑term supply. Exporters are enjoying a strong start to the season: weekly raisin exports have climbed to 5,240 tons for the week of 10 October, up 1,900 tons year‑on‑year, driven by more competitive dollar prices around $2,400 per ton versus $3,500 last year. At the same time, growers are holding back deliveries as they wait for higher farmgate prices, while increased inflows from Uzbekistan and Iran cap immediate upside. Warm, mostly dry October weather in Manisa supports quality in the short term, but the clearing of older vineyards without replanting hints at a potential tightening of supply and higher price risk in coming years.

Prices

Export prices have undergone a sharp reset: the average raisin export price has fallen to about $2,400 per ton this week, down from $3,500 per ton in the same week a year ago. This reduction of roughly one‑third has significantly improved Turkey’s price competitiveness and is the primary catalyst for the surge in export volumes.

Despite lower dollar export prices, domestic raw material values are firm. Standard raw material is trading around 65–70 TL/kg, while No. 10 grade raisins are achieving 75 TL/kg and above, reflecting both quality premiums and growers’ reluctance to sell at current levels. European demand for Turkish origin—due to strict requirements for residue‑free product—helps maintain a quality premium over alternative origins.

On the international physical side, our latest quotations indicate that Turkish sultanas type 10, grade A are at 2.275 EUR/kg FOB Malatya, with conventional type 9 grade A at 2.075 EUR/kg FOB and organic type 9 grade A at 3.1 EUR/kg FOB. Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU are indicated at 1.751 EUR/kg FCA Hamburg (latest update), while Turkish origin type 9 RTU in Dordrecht is at 2.9 EUR/kg FCA. Indian golden raisins grade AA stand at 2.58 EUR/kg FOB New Delhi, with brown and black AA grades at 1.99 EUR/kg and 1.95 EUR/kg FOB respectively.

Supply & Demand

Weekly export performance underlines robust demand: shipments of 5,240 tons for the week of 10 October represent an increase of 1,900 tons over last year’s comparable week. Lower export prices have stimulated international buying, particularly from Europe, where buyers favour Turkish product for its residue‑free status and established supply chains.

However, exporters are increasingly constrained by raw material availability. Growers, aware of the upward trajectory in local prices, are in no rush to liquidate stocks and are attempting to time sales to higher levels. This mismatch between buoyant export demand and slower farmgate selling is tightening spot availability, especially for top‑grade lots, and could lead to bouts of short‑term price volatility.

Adding complexity, Turkey faces competition from Uzbekistan and Iran, whose raisins are entering export channels via free zones. These additional supplies help cap international price increases and offer buyers cheaper alternatives, particularly in price‑sensitive segments. Nonetheless, stringent residue requirements keep core European food‑industry demand anchored to Turkish origin for a significant share of their needs.

Fundamentals & Weather

Underlying fundamentals are mixed. On one hand, export volumes and international demand are clearly strengthening, underpinned by Turkey’s role as a key global supplier. On the other hand, raw material costs at 65–70 TL/kg and above for standard material compress exporter margins when benchmarked against the much lower export price level compared with last season.

Current weather conditions in Manisa and surrounding Aegean vineyards are broadly favourable. Forecasts for the second half of October indicate mostly dry weather with daytime highs around 19–23°C and limited rain events, conditions that support good drying and handling of remaining stocks in the short term. This reduces immediate quality risk but does little to ease structural concerns.

Of particular note is the structural signal from the supply side: some farmers are clearing older vineyards and not all are replanting. If this trend continues, total raisin‑grape acreage could decline, tightening medium‑term supply and raising the floor under future price levels. While this effect will not be fully visible in the current marketing year, it is a key risk for the next 2–5 seasons and may eventually offset today’s price‑driven demand recovery.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

In the near term, the combination of strong international demand, lower export prices compared with last year and constrained raw material availability suggests a firm‑to‑steady price profile rather than a renewed collapse. Additional supply from Uzbekistan and Iran will continue to moderate rallies, but European buyers’ preference for residue‑free Turkish raisins underpins a solid demand base.

Medium term, vineyard removals and persistent raw material tightness point to a gradual tightening of fundamentals. If acreage reductions become more pronounced and yields disappoint in coming seasons, today’s lower export price environment may prove temporary, with a higher equilibrium level emerging once current export momentum has run its course.

• Food industry buyers (EU/UK): Use current price weakness to extend cover into mid‑2027, focusing on Turkish No. 9 and No. 10 grades that meet residue‑free standards. Consider staggering purchases to manage short‑term volatility from raw material tightness.
• Importers and traders: Maintain a diversified origin book. Blend competitively priced Uzbek and Iranian raisins for price‑sensitive customers, while reserving Turkish origin for premium and residue‑critical segments.
• Producers and cooperatives: Given lower export prices but firm local TL levels, avoid excessively delaying sales; phase marketing to capture potential incremental gains without overexposing to policy shifts or demand fatigue.

Short‑Term Price Indications (Next 3 Days)