Soybeans face pressure from high Chinese soy oil and meal stocks and softer US biofuel demand, while FOB prices in China edge up. Read the concise market view.
Prices
Across the CBOT soy complex, all three legs are softer on the day. Nearby soybean oil contracts are down around 0.3–0.8%, soybean meal is off roughly 0.3–0.6%, and soybean futures are lower by around 0.2–1.2% along the curve, reflecting broad selling and some unwinding of length in vegetable oils and oilseeds.
In China, Dalian No.1 soybeans closed 0.8–1.3% lower across the forward strip, echoing the pressure from domestic oversupply in oil and meal. Physical price indications in EUR show a mixed but overall slightly firmer picture in key origins: FOB Beijing yellow soybeans have edged up to 0.79–0.90 EUR/kg (conventional vs. organic), while US No. 2 soybeans FOB Washington D.C. last stand at 0.55 EUR/kg, and Ukrainian soybeans from Odesa eased recently to around 0.327 EUR/kg FOB and 0.374 EUR/kg CPT.
| Origin | Type | Delivery | Latest price (EUR/kg) | Direction vs. previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China, Beijing | Yellow | FOB | 0.79 | Up from 0.77 |
| China, Beijing | Yellow, organic | FOB | 0.90 | Up from 0.88 |
| Ukraine, Odesa | GMO-free | CPT | 0.374 | Down from 0.375 |
| Ukraine, Odesa | Standard | FOB | 0.327 | Down from 0.333 |
| US, Washington D.C. | No. 2 | FOB | 0.55 | Down from 0.58 |
| India, New Delhi | Sortex clean | FOB | 0.85 | Down from 0.89 |
Supply & Demand
The heaviest pressure currently comes from China. Commercial soy oil stocks there climbed to just under 1.5 million tonnes by end-October, about 4.3% above last year and the highest level for this point in the season in at least two years. Soybean meal stocks are also at their highest in more than two years. Crushers continue to process large soybean arrivals, but downstream demand is lagging, leading to a pronounced surplus in both oil and meal.
To counter domestic oversupply, Chinese suppliers have sharply increased soy oil exports, more than tripling volumes to roughly 800,000 tonnes in the first nine months of 2026. Yet futures in Dalian have still lost about 1% at times, underscoring how swollen inventories and slow internal consumption cap prices. This supply overhang in China is a central bearish driver for the global soy complex and puts soy oil in more direct competition with palm oil on Asian and European markets.
In the United States, the short-term picture in biofuels has turned more cautious. August data show soybean oil use for biofuel falling by roughly 17% month-on-month, with an even steeper drop of over 28% in renewable diesel plants and pronounced declines in the use of tallow and other waste oils. High stocks of alternative feedstocks and some policy-related uncertainty have briefly loosened the near-term balance, adding pressure to soy oil and thereby to soybeans.
Medium term, however, policy remains supportive: record-high Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026–2027 are expected to push total soybean oil use for biofuels to new highs and lift soy oil’s share of domestic consumption above 50% in 2026/27. This suggests that once today’s feedstock overhang is worked down, crush demand could re‑accelerate, although the timing of this shift is uncertain and will depend on refinery margins and the pace of RIN generation.
Exclusive commodities on CMBroker
Fundamentals & Weather
On the supply side, the market is digesting expectations of larger soybean crops in both the US and Brazil. Private estimates have recently added to the US crop outlook, and early Brazilian planting data show progress running ahead of the five‑year average, reinforcing a comfortable global supply narrative into early 2027. At the same time, oilseed markets remain sensitive to crude oil, with the recent slide in Brent prices below key psychological levels removing some support from vegetable oils tied to the biodiesel and renewable diesel chains.
Weather in Brazil is currently a secondary, but important, watchpoint. Planting in Mato Grosso and other central states is advancing with generally adequate moisture after an uneven early onset of the rainy season, while southern Brazil has contended with episodes of excessive rainfall. Forecasts for the first half of November point to continued showers across much of the main belt, which should support stand establishment and early development, keeping yield expectations broadly intact for now.
Outlook & Trading Ideas
In the near term, the soy complex faces a bearish-leaning but range‑bound environment: heavy Chinese oil and meal stocks, high availability of competing biofuel feedstocks and softer spot biofuel demand argue against a strong rally. At the same time, structurally rising demand for soy oil in biofuels and only gradual easing of US and Brazilian export competition should limit deep downside moves in beans.
- Crushers: Consider locking in a portion of nearby bean coverage while futures remain under pressure, but keep flexibility on soy oil sales given weak spot demand and the potential for policy‑driven recovery into 2027.
- Importers in Asia & EU: Use current softness in CBOT and Dalian to scale into Q1–Q2 2027 purchases, prioritising origins with the sharpest recent price declines (US, Ukraine, India) while monitoring freight and currency risk.
- Producers: For US and Brazilian growers, incremental sales on small rallies towards recent resistance can help manage inventory risk ahead of the next WASDE and further clarity on South American yields.
Over the next three trading days, CBOT soybeans and soy oil are likely to trade with a modest downward to sideways bias, as the market awaits fresh guidance from upcoming USDA reports and tracks South American weather. Dalian soybeans should mirror this tone, staying under pressure from domestic stock burdens, while physical FOB and CPT quotations in China, the Black Sea and the US are expected to remain broadly stable with a slight softening risk if futures weaken further.