Soybeans steady off three‑month low as U.S. supply grows and Brazil races ahead

Soy complex prices are stabilising after a three‑month low, with bargain buying in CBOT soybeans offset by rising U.S. yield expectations, heavy palm oil pressure and fast Brazilian planting that together cap upside. Soybeans have paused their recent slide as futures in Chicago recovered modestly on November 8–9 after touching the lowest levels in roughly three months. The bounce is driven mainly by value buying and strong U.S. export demand, while macro headwinds from weaker crude oil and slumping palm oil prices continue to weigh on the broader vegetable oil complex. At the same time, expectations for higher U.S. yields and production in the upcoming WASDE report and an accelerated Brazilian planting pace are reinforcing a more comfortable medium‑term supply picture. Physical quotations in the Black Sea, U.S. and China are broadly steady to slightly firmer, suggesting nearby demand remains active but buyers are cautious chasing rallies.

Prices

On the CBOT, front soybean futures (November 2026) last traded near 1,198.25 US‑ct/bu on November 8–9, up 0.78% (+9.25 ct) on the day after Thursday’s three‑month low attracted fresh buying. Nearby months out to July 2027 are clustered around 1,194–1,215 US‑ct/bu, with a very flat forward curve indicating balanced nearby and forward fundamentals. Soymeal is softer, with the December 2026 contract around 318.20 USD/short ton (-0.31% on the day), while soyoil is slightly higher at about 62.4–63.8 US‑ct/lb across the 2026/27 strip, recovering modestly after recent pressure.

In physical markets, recent indications in EUR suggest a mixed but generally steady tone. Ukrainian soybeans FOB Odesa were last quoted at 0.335 EUR/kg (up from 0.327 EUR/kg on October 30), while GMO‑free soybeans CPT Odesa hold at 0.383 EUR/kg. U.S. Soybeans No. 2 FOB (Washington D.C.) are stable at 0.55 EUR/kg. In China, yellow soybeans FOB Beijing are indicated around 0.79 EUR/kg for conventional and 0.90 EUR/kg for organic product, both slightly above late‑October levels, signalling firm demand for higher‑spec origins.

Supply & Demand

Fundamentally, the near‑term picture is shaped by stronger U.S. supply expectations, very robust U.S. exports and rapid planting progress in Brazil. Analysts expect USDA in Tuesday’s WASDE to raise the U.S. soybean yield forecast by around 0.4 bu/acre to 53.5 bu/acre, lifting 2026/27 production by about 34 million bushels to 4.596 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are seen 17 million bushels higher at 332 million bushels, implying a modest loosening of the domestic balance, even as world stocks are expected to be trimmed slightly to around 124.3 million tonnes, keeping the global market relatively tight.

Export demand is a key supportive factor. USDA reported a private sale of 136,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery on Friday, bringing confirmed private sales in the past week to 573,000 tonnes. Total U.S. soybean export sales since the marketing year began on September 1 now reach 30.234 million tonnes, 76% above last year. Commitments already cover 66% of USDA’s current export forecast, well ahead of the five‑year average of 54%, underscoring strong international demand and tightening forward availability from the U.S. even as production edges higher.

Brazil remains central to the medium‑term outlook. The soybean planting campaign for 2026/27 has reached roughly 65% of the intended area, compared with 58% a year ago and a five‑year average near 62%, confirming the survey signals of Pátria AgroNegócios and others that pace is above normal. In Mato Grosso, sowing has covered about 96% of planned area, well ahead of last year and average, thanks to favourable weather. However, excessive rainfall in southern and southeastern regions has slowed planting in Paraná and raised concerns about crop development in some fields, slightly tempering an otherwise very constructive production outlook.

China’s domestic futures (DCE No.1 soybeans) are slightly lower week‑on‑week, with key 2027 contracts such as January and March down about 0.8–0.9%, reflecting comfortable local near‑term supply. Nonetheless, cash premiums and steady import demand for high‑quality and identity‑preserved origins (GMO‑free, organic) remain firm, as reflected in the higher Beijing FOB indications in EUR. Combined with strong U.S. sales to China, this points to sustained consumption growth in feed and food segments despite some macroeconomic uncertainty.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

The soy complex is being pulled lower by developments in competing vegetable oils and energy markets. Malaysian crude palm oil futures have recently fallen to near eight‑month lows around RM 4,200–4,300/tonne after a sharp two‑week slide, driven by expectations of record‑high October stocks near or above 3.75 million tonnes and still‑soft export demand. At the same time, Brent crude oil has dropped strongly over the past week to around 98 USD/bbl, reducing biodiesel blending incentives and weighing on overall vegoil demand. These moves have pushed palm oil‑based biodiesel margins lower despite palm’s relative cheapness versus gasoil, undermining a key outlet for vegetable oils, including soyoil.

Speculative positioning has also turned more cautious. Managed money at the CBOT cut their net‑long in soybeans by about 52,600 contracts in the week to November 3, leaving net length around 132,800 contracts. The reduction came primarily from long liquidation, suggesting that some trend‑following funds are unwinding bullish bets amid the higher U.S. yield outlook and weaker vegetable oil complex. This shift limits the scope for sharp rallies unless new bullish catalysts emerge, but it also reduces the risk of aggressive fund‑driven selling from current levels.

On the fundamental side, the upcoming WASDE is likely to confirm a gradual rebuilding of U.S. stocks while still signalling no significant global oversupply. The expected modest increase in U.S. ending stocks to 332 million bushels and only a small downward adjustment of global ending stocks to around 124.3 million tonnes point to a market that is moving from tight to more balanced, rather than loose. The strong U.S. export programme and some weather‑related risks in Brazil (excessive rains in the south/southeast) provide important counterweights to otherwise bearish supply news.

Weather Snapshot

Weather remains mixed but more supportive than threatening for now. In Brazil, ample rainfall has enabled rapid planting progress in key central‑western states such as Mato Grosso, underpinning expectations for a large 2026/27 crop. However, in Paraná and parts of the south and southeast, persistent heavy rains have slowed fieldwork and raised concerns about waterlogging and disease pressure in early‑planted fields. Any sustained planting delays or replanting needs in these regions could shave yield potential if conditions do not normalise in the coming weeks.

In the United States, the soybean harvest is largely complete and weather risks have diminished. Attention is shifting to South American conditions, which will be the main driver of weather‑related price volatility through the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere winter. For now, the combination of rapid sowing in Brazil’s main producing belts and only localised issues suggests that production risk is present but not yet severe enough to significantly tighten the global balance.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Near‑term price action is likely to remain range‑bound with a slight downward bias as the market digests a probable upward revision in U.S. yields and production and continued pressure from palm oil and crude. However, strong U.S. export sales, solid Chinese demand and some weather‑related uncertainties in Brazil should provide a floor under prices near recent lows. Volatility around Tuesday’s WASDE and subsequent South American weather headlines is expected to stay elevated.

• Importers / Crushers: Consider layering in additional coverage on dips towards recent three‑month lows in CBOT futures and where physical premiums remain moderate, particularly for Q1–Q2 2027 arrivals. Strong U.S. export pace suggests nearby supply could tighten even as the headline crop grows.
• Producers: Use the recent bounce to increase incremental hedges for a portion of expected 2026/27 output, especially in regions with favourable yield prospects. Options structures can retain upside in case Brazilian weather or macro shocks tighten the balance later in the season.
• Traders / Funds: Given reduced speculative net‑longs and strong exports, a buy‑on‑dips bias with tight risk limits looks preferable to outright shorts. Relative value opportunities may emerge in soymeal versus soyoil and soybeans versus palm oil if palm remains under stronger pressure from inventories and weak biodiesel economics.

3‑Day Directional View (Key Markets)

• CBOT soybeans: Slightly firmer to sideways as bargain buying and positioning before WASDE offset pressure from higher yield expectations and soft vegoil complex.
• Black Sea (UA) FOB: Steady to mildly supported, with 0.335 EUR/kg indicating firm nearby demand and ongoing export interest via Odesa.
• US FOB Gulf / Atlantic: Largely stable, with strong export commitments underpinning basis despite comfortable production prospects.
• China CFR / FOB: Steady to slightly higher, particularly for GMO‑free and organic beans, reflecting resilient end‑user demand for high‑spec supplies.