Spanish Almond Prices Hold Firm as Heatwave Supports Bullish Tone

Spanish and US almond kernel prices are stable to slightly firm, with no corrections in Madrid FOB quotations despite active new-crop arrivals and strong export pull from California. Domestic Spanish bench prices at key exchanges are aligned with this steady tone, while hot, dry weather in core growing regions limits short‑term supply pressure. Spanish spot markets are digesting a harvest that is generally rated as good in quality but mixed in volume by region, against a backdrop of firm global demand led by India and steady Western Europe buying. California starts the 2026/27 season with sharply higher August exports and reduced carry-in, tightening the forward balance and underpinning kernel values in Europe. In Spain, high late‑September temperatures and scarce rainfall reduce immediate harvest risks and support uninterrupted field work, but also raise irrigation costs and keep growers cautious about further price concessions.

Prices

Madrid FOB almond kernel prices are unchanged over the last week, consolidating previous gains. Spanish Marcona remains the premium benchmark, with Almond kernels marcona, 14/16 at 8.25 EUR/kg FOB Madrid and Almond kernels marcona, 12/14 at 6.65 EUR/kg FOB Madrid. Guara underpins the low end of the Spanish range at 5.60 EUR/kg FOB Madrid for guara bajo, 12 and 5.95 EUR/kg FOB Madrid for guara, 12/14 MMS.

Valencia types are steady: Almond kernels valencia, 10/12 at 7.15 EUR/kg FOB Madrid, valencia, 12/14 at 7.30 EUR/kg FOB Madrid, and valencia +14 mm at 7.50 EUR/kg FOB Madrid. Organic nonpareil remains the top of the board, with Almond kernels natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (ES origin) at 11.50 EUR/kg FOB Madrid. US-origin nonpareil organic in Washington D.C. is quoted at 9.35 EUR/kg FOB, while US carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 stand at 6.70 EUR/kg FAS Washington D.C.

Supply & Demand

In Spain, provincial exchanges such as Albacete show firm kernel benchmarks mid‑September, with Marcona around the mid‑6 EUR/kg level at origin, broadly consistent with stable grower returns and limited downside pressure so far this harvest. Producer groups in Castilla-La Mancha and Murcia report very good quality but uneven production, with some interior areas facing notable yield declines, supporting current pricing levels.

Globally, California opened the 2026/27 crop year with August shipments at 190.1 million lbs, up 20.5% year on year, driven almost entirely by exports. Export shipments rose 31% YoY, led by India and solid Western Europe demand, while domestic US offtake remained soft, reinforcing Europe’s role as a key demand anchor. The adjustment of Loss & Exempt reduced carry‑in stocks to around 470.7 million lbs, cleaning up inventories versus earlier expectations and adding a mildly bullish undertone.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Spain)

For the week starting 21 September, Spain faces a late‑summer heat episode, with AEMET forecasting clearly above‑normal temperatures across most of the peninsula and highs reaching 32–35 °C in areas including the Ebro valley and Guadalquivir basin. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear with scarce precipitation, a pattern likely to persist at least through Friday 25 September.

For almond‑growing regions in Andalusia, Aragon and Catalonia, this means rapid drying conditions and minimal weather‑related harvest disruption over the next 3 days. The downside is increased irrigation demand and potential tree stress on non‑irrigated plots, but at this stage of the campaign the net effect is supportive for uninterrupted intake and stable to firm prices rather than any harvest‑related pressure.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Cleaned‑up California balance: Lower‑than‑expected Loss & Exempt has trimmed carry‑in, with edible carry‑in estimated around 447 million lbs, tightening the starting point for 2026/27 and underpinning kernel values into Q4.
• Strong export pull: August California exports rose 31% YoY, with India imports up 170% and Western Europe up 8%, signaling robust demand into key festive and industrial channels.
• Spanish domestic firmness: Updated Spanish exchange quotations (Albacete, Córdoba, Murcia) show firm conventional kernels and a clear premium for organic, consistent with our flat Madrid FOB price board.
• New‑crop intake in NE Spain: Large collectors in Catalonia and Aragon have published 2026/27 intake prices effective from 19 September, confirming an active buying program and signaling confidence in demand for current crop kernels.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading View

Directional price outlook (next 3 days, region ES): With fieldwork running smoothly under hot, dry conditions and no major macro shocks, we expect Spanish FOB almond kernel prices to remain sideways to mildly firm into mid‑week.

• Spanish sellers: Use current stability to scale‑up coverage on Marcona and higher‑screen Valencia at or slightly above current bids, especially for Q4–Q1 shipments while California export demand remains strong.
• European buyers: Consider securing a first layer of coverage on Spanish Marcona and Guara for near‑by and holiday programs; downside appears limited while California balances tighten and Spanish weather favors fast execution.
• US origin users in Europe: Monitor California export pace closely; if shipments stay elevated and carry‑in proves tight, today’s US kernel offers around the high‑6 EUR/kg FAS range could mark a medium‑term floor.

Regionally, we expect Madrid FOB quotations for Spanish kernels and FAS Washington D.C. levels for US carmel and nonpareil to hold within a narrow range over the coming three sessions, with any moves biased slightly to the upside on further strong shipment data or additional heat‑related field stress.