Tur Import Wave Softens Pea Prices but Weather Risk Lurks Ahead
India’s 44% tur import surge is capping pea prices short term, but weak dal demand and poor monsoon in key states keep medium‑term risks elevated.
India’s aggressive tur (pigeon pea) import campaign is keeping a lid on pea prices in the near term, but drought-hit kharif crops in key states leave the medium‑term balance fragile. Ample imported supplies and weak domestic demand are weighing on quotes today, while expectations of lower Indian production and delayed new-crop arrivals could tighten the market into late Q4 and early 2027.
Pea markets are currently shaped by India’s dual role as both the largest tur consumer and a major importer of other pulses, including peas. Imports of tur rose roughly 44% year-on-year to about 625,000 tonnes in January–August 2026, dominated by shipments from Mozambique, Myanmar and East Africa. Comfortable imported stocks and subdued dal mill buying are preventing a stronger price reaction to adverse monsoon conditions in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat. With fresh domestic tur expected mainly from December onward, traders see a tug-of-war between short-term softness and emerging supply risk.
Prices
Dried peas in Western Europe show mild downward pressure, while Black Sea quotations are broadly steady with a slight firming bias in green peas.
| Product | Origin | Location | Terms | Latest Price (EUR) | Previous Price (EUR) | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peas dried, green | GB | London | FOB | 0.909 | 0.92 | 2026-10-24 |
| Peas dried, marrowfat | GB | London | FOB | 1.15 | 1.18 | 2026-10-24 |
| Peas dried, green 98% purity | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.19 | 0.18 | 2026-10-22 |
| Peas dried, yellow 98% purity | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.16 | 0.16 | 2026-10-22 |
The modest step-down in GB FOB values since early October signals light selling pressure and comfortable nearby availability, while Ukrainian FCA prices are largely stable, reflecting ongoing logistical risk and steady export demand from traditional buyers.
Supply & Demand
India remains the pivotal driver for the global tur and related pea complex. Tur imports increased about 44% year-on-year to roughly 625,000 tonnes between January and August 2026, as buyers moved early to secure supplies from African origins and Myanmar in anticipation of weather-related crop losses. Imported tur continues to play a critical role in feeding Indian dal mills, even as domestic consumption has been softer than expected.
Despite the import surge, demand from Indian dal mills has underperformed, with mills drawing cautiously on stocks and reporting weaker-than-normal offtake. This combination of high imports and subdued demand has generated short-term price pressure in the tur market, indirectly capping upside in related pea segments. At the same time, structural dependence on imports has grown, making India’s procurement and policy decisions a key risk factor for pea exporters.
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Weather & Production Risk
Weather remains the main medium-term uncertainty. Below-normal and erratic monsoon rainfall in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat has raised concerns about lower kharif tur yields and potential quality issues. Market participants increasingly expect a smaller domestic crop, though the final impact will only become clear closer to harvest.
Fresh domestic tur arrivals are expected primarily from December onward, prolonging India’s reliance on imported supplies through much of Q4 2026. Should late-season weather further compromise yields, the current soft tone in prices could reverse, with tighter domestic availability supporting quotations for tur and, by extension, imported peas competing in Indian consumption baskets.
Fundamentals & Market Balance
The near-term balance is clearly supply-heavy: elevated imports, comfortable dal mill inventories and weaker-than-anticipated consumption are applying downward pressure on prices. However, this softness is layered atop tightening forward fundamentals, as expectations of lower kharif output collide with structurally firm baseline demand for pulses in India.
For international pea exporters, this translates into a two-speed environment. In the short run, India’s strong tur import program reduces spot buying urgency for peas. Over the medium term, any confirmation of a smaller Indian tur crop or policy shifts on pulse imports could reignite demand for peas as a substitute protein source, especially where yellow peas compete directly with tur in dal and snack formulations.
Trading Outlook
- Short term (next 2–4 weeks): Higher imported tur supplies and weak dal mill demand are likely to keep pea prices capped, with a slight downward bias in Western Europe and mostly stable levels in the Black Sea.
- Medium term (Dec–Feb): If kharif tur production in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat confirms below-average yields, traders should anticipate firmer support for tur and related pea values as domestic arrivals disappoint.
- Risk management: Importers and processors may consider gradually extending coverage into early 2027 on price dips, while producers should watch Indian policy and crop updates closely before overcommitting forward sales.
3‑Day Directional Outlook
- GB dried peas (green, marrowfat, London FOB): Slightly soft to sideways, with buyers well covered in the near term.
- UA dried peas (green & yellow, Odesa FCA): Largely steady, with modest support from export demand and persistent regional logistics risk.
- India-focused demand: Sideways in the very short run as mills work through imported tur stocks, but sentiment remains sensitive to fresh weather and crop news.