Turkish Hazelnuts Ease Lower as New-Crop Pressure Meets State Support

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are slightly softer in early September, with conventional grades under mild pressure while organic FOB offers from İzmir edge marginally higher. A wide gap persists between strong TMO support prices and weaker free‑market in‑shell levels along the Black Sea coast, keeping exporters squeezed but ensuring farmer selling continues. New‑crop arrivals from higher altitudes in Ordu and Giresun are now flowing into the pipeline, confirming a comfortable supply picture. Processors report steady but unspectacular export demand from European confectionery buyers, who are taking advantage of lower kernel values versus last season. Weather in the Black Sea hazelnut belt is largely benign, reducing immediate yield risk and reinforcing a slightly bearish near‑term tone for conventional kernels, while premiums for organic kernels and processed fractions remain firmly supported.

Prices

Recent Turkish FOB offers in EUR for key hazelnut kernel categories indicate a mixed but generally softer tone for conventional kernels, contrasted with stable-to-firmer organic values from İzmir. The table below reflects indicative levels converted to EUR.

In the domestic in‑shell market, TMO’s 2026/27 intervention prices are set at about TRY 255/kg for Giresun quality and TRY 250/kg for Levant quality, well above current free‑market ranges around TRY 176–210/kg in Ordu and Giresun depending on quality and buyer. This wide spread underpins farmer sentiment but limits exporter margins.

Supply & Demand

Harvest in the main Black Sea hazelnut belt (Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Samsun) is effectively completed, including high‑altitude zones whose export windows opened in late August, so new‑crop supply is now entering drying and processing stages at full pace. Early feedback from traders points to comfortable availability of kernels across key sizes, with no broad‑based quality issues reported so far.

On the demand side, European confectionery and chocolate manufacturers are described as buying hand‑to‑mouth, helped by good pipeline stocks and a broader trend of slightly softer tree‑nut demand earlier in the year. This behavior, combined with the strong state‑backed floor in the domestic in‑shell market, is pushing more of the adjustment onto kernel exporter margins rather than outright farm‑gate prices, contributing to the mild downward drift in conventional FOB kernel offers.

Fundamentals & Weather

Official and industry production estimates for the current Turkish crop point to a sizeable harvest, broadly comparable to or above recent seasons, reinforcing the perception of adequate global supply when combined with steady output from other origins such as Georgia and Italy. With Turkey still dominating world exports, this keeps international buyers in a relatively comfortable position for the 2026/27 campaign.

Weather over the next three days in the central and eastern Black Sea coast (Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Samsun) is forecast to be partly cloudy with mild temperatures and only isolated showers inland, favorable for drying and post‑harvest handling of nuts already collected from orchards. No significant rain or storm threat is indicated in the immediate outlook, reducing the risk of drying delays or quality losses in stored in‑shell product, and supporting a stable supply narrative.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Conventional TR kernels (FOB Istanbul): Bias is mildly bearish to sideways as new‑crop arrivals continue and free‑market in‑shell prices trade well below TMO levels. Expect further attempts by buyers to push kernel offers slightly lower, especially for roasted meal and diced fractions.
• Organic TR kernels (FOB İzmir): Slight upward adjustment in key sizes suggests resilient specialty demand and tighter certified supply. Premiums versus conventional should remain wide; a sideways to slightly firmer tone is likely unless global demand weakens further.
• In‑shell domestic market: TMO’s high intervention prices should cap downside risk for growers, but as long as free‑market quotes stay materially below the TMO floor, exporter margins will be squeezed, encouraging cautious forward sales and selective coverage by European buyers.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• TR conventional kernels FOB Istanbul: Slight downward bias (−1% to −2%) as additional new‑crop volumes are offered and buyers test lower levels in meal and diced grades.
• TR organic kernels FOB İzmir: Sideways to slightly firmer (0% to +1%), with support from specialty demand and limited certified stock despite overall comfortable crop size.
• TR domestic in‑shell (TRY, implied EUR): Broadly stable around current ranges, anchored by TMO’s announced purchase prices; meaningful EUR‑term moves will mainly track FX fluctuations rather than local fundamentals in the next three days.