Turkish Hazelnuts Hold Firm as TMO Floor Diverges from Soft Cash Market

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices in EUR are broadly steady to slightly firmer on processed and conventional lines, while the domestic TL-denominated in-shell market along the Black Sea has softened further below TMO’s support levels. The wide gap between official intervention prices and cash bids is tempering farmer selling, supporting FOB kernel offers in TR despite pressure from weaker local spot demand. The new 2026/27 crop is now largely harvested in the main Black Sea provinces, with producers closely watching a domestic market where free on-farm and bourse prices have retreated well below TMO’s intervention band. In Giresun, Ordu, Samsun and Trabzon, recent reports show serbest piyasa levels mostly in the 170–200 TL/kg range depending on quality and location, versus TMO’s 245–255 TL/kg official schedule, prompting government scrutiny of local exchanges. At the same time, international kernel demand from Europe remains active, ensuring that Turkish FOB kernel quotations in EUR, particularly for higher-value organic and processed products, have held firm rather than following the local TL downtrend.

Prices

Latest Turkish FOB hazelnut kernel indications in EUR show stability at the high end for organic and processed products, and a mild firming in conventional Istanbul quotations since late August. In contrast, domestic in-shell prices along the Black Sea coast have eased in TL terms, widening the spread to TMO’s support prices and underlining bearish local sentiment despite steady export-oriented demand.

Domestic Turkish press reports for 18 September show Giresun-quality in-shell hazelnuts around 187–195 TL/kg and Levant in the high 170s TL/kg in Giresun, with some coastal districts trading slightly above 200 TL/kg. Samsun and Ordu quotes are lower, with Levant often in the 170–180 TL/kg band. These levels sit markedly below official TMO purchase prices.

Supply & Demand

TMO has confirmed 2026/27 intervention prices of 255 TL/kg for Giresun quality, 250 TL/kg for Levant and 245 TL/kg for Sivri at 50% sound kernel basis, creating a significant premium over current cash bids. The Ministry has dispatched inspectors to several regional bourses amid concerns about a price gap of up to 50 TL/kg between these official levels and realized trades. This oversight is designed to underpin producer income and avoid distress sales early in the season.

The 2026 crop in Türkiye’s Black Sea belt is now largely harvested, and local media note that picking has finished in Giresun. Despite weaker cash prices versus TMO, export-oriented demand remains healthy, with Italy and other European processors continuing to source kernels and processed products from Türkiye. Recent trade data tools confirm a broad and diversified Italian buyer base that regularly imports hazelnut-based products (HSN 2008) from multiple origins, including Türkiye, supporting ongoing shipment interest.

Weather Outlook – TR Hazelnut Belt (3 days)

Short-term weather conditions in the eastern Black Sea remain seasonally mild and generally dry following harvest. Forecasts for Trabzon, a proxy for key coastal growing zones, indicate daytime temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s °C through 22 September with limited precipitation risk, favouring post-harvest drying and storage operations rather than field work. No weather-driven supply disruption is expected in the coming days.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Domestic vs TMO spread: The gap between TMO’s 245–255 TL/kg purchase schedule and cash bids in the 170–200 TL/kg range keeps many growers hesitant to sell at current market prices, tightening prompt spot availability and supporting kernel FOB quotations.
• Government scrutiny: The deployment of inspectors to several Black Sea bourses over alleged price anomalies signals a willingness to defend producer pricing, which should limit further sharp downside in farmgate levels and, by extension, in EUR-based kernel offers.
• Export demand: EU confectionery demand, especially from Italian buyers, remains structurally strong, with many established importers of hazelnut kernels and processed products. This underpins steady interest in Turkish kernels despite local price softness.
• Global balance: Previous international assessments for 2025/26 hazelnut production already indicated a tighter world supply compared with the prior season, leaving limited cushion if Turkish farmers collectively slow sales. Although older than three days, these structural figures still frame market expectations.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• For buyers (roasters, confectioners, importers):
  • Use current price stability in organic kernels (11–13 mm at 19.38 EUR/kg FOB İzmir; 13–15 mm at 18.35 EUR/kg) and blanched roasted kernels at 22.90 EUR/kg to lock in at least part of Q4–Q1 coverage, as the policy-supported floor limits downside.
  • For conventional kernels, incremental increases in Istanbul FOB offers (e.g., natural 13–15 mm at 7.846 EUR/kg) suggest that the seasonal low may be behind us; consider layering purchases rather than waiting for a deeper correction.
• For Turkish processors and exporters:
  • Maintain disciplined offer levels; the combination of TMO support and official scrutiny of low TL bids is likely to cap further raw material weakness and justify current EUR-based kernel premiums.
  • Given steady EU demand, prioritize value-added and organic lines where price realization remains strongest and where buyers show willingness to secure longer-dated contracts.
• For producers:
  • With serbest piyasa still well below TMO levels, gradual sales and use of TMO channels where accessible can help avoid locking in the current discount, especially if policy pressure narrows the gap in coming weeks.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction Only)

• TR – Black Sea in-shell (Giresun/Ordu/Samsun/Trabzon): After recent declines to roughly 170–200 TL/kg depending on region and quality, prices are expected to move broadly sideways to slightly firmer near term as TMO support and official inspections deter further undercutting.
• TR – FOB kernels Istanbul (conventional): With recent small upticks in natural and roasted kernel offers and no imminent supply or weather shock, EUR FOB prices are likely to remain firm to slightly higher over the next three days.
• TR – FOB kernels İzmir (organic & processed): Organic and processed kernel quotations, already at a premium, should stay stable to firm given tight availability and steady export demand.