Turkish Raisin Market Struggles with Oversupply Despite Firm Export Flow

Turkish raisins are entering the 2026/27 season under clear oversupply and weak on-farm demand, pressuring growers even as export flows and euro-denominated prices stay broadly stable. State support via TMO purchases and local aid programs is becoming decisive for vineyard survival over the next two years. The new crop in Manisa is abundant, with low demand and excess grapes weighing on farmgate prices and producer margins. Reports from the region highlight that many growers are postponing harvest or even considering uprooting vineyards if public buying slows. At the same time, exports are progressing at a steady pace, supported by competitive Turkish pricing in EUR and sustained demand from Europe and other key markets. Policy decisions by TMO and local authorities will be critical in balancing the domestic surplus and keeping export momentum intact.

Prices

Export quotations for Turkish sultana raisins have recently stabilised after sharp adjustments earlier in the season. In Malatya, conventional sultanas type 9, grade A are indicated at EUR 1.734/kg FOB, while type 8, grade A trades around EUR 1.712/kg FOB and type 10, grade A at EUR 1.823/kg FOB. Organic sultanas type 9, grade A stand significantly higher at EUR 3.10/kg FOB. CIF quotations for Turkish sultanas type 9, grade RTU are at EUR 1.79/kg.

In European distribution hubs, Turkish RTU raisins are offered around EUR 2.85/kg FCA Dordrecht, while Chinese standard sultanas type 9 grade AA are indicated at EUR 2.20/kg FCA. In Hamburg, Chinese RTU sultanas type 9 STD have eased to about EUR 1.714/kg FCA, reflecting competitive pressure and ample global supply. Indian brown and golden raisins remain at a premium, with golden grade AA at roughly EUR 2.65/kg FOB New Delhi.

Supply & Demand

Manisa, Turkey’s core sultana region, is facing a pronounced surplus in grape production this season. Local stakeholders report that new vineyard plantings were halted last year and warn that, without continued TMO purchasing, many vineyards could be uprooted within two years. The combination of abundant harvest and subdued buying interest is pushing growers into losses and intensifying calls for sustained state support in fuel and agrochemicals.

Despite this, the export channel remains a key stabiliser. Market participants point to steady raisin export flows from Turkey as year-end approaches, even if prices remain low in local currency terms. Recent international industry data confirm that Turkish raisin production for 2026/27 has been revised higher, and exports in the early part of the season are significantly above last year’s levels, underscoring robust external demand even against a backdrop of grower distress.

Fundamentals & Policy

The fundamental imbalance sits primarily at farm level. Low demand and oversupply in Manisa mean many table and drying grapes are struggling to find buyers, with some reports indicating that a large share of sultaniye grapes are still waiting in the vineyards under cover due to slow procurement and unattractive prices. This is consistent with growers’ concerns that, absent TMO intervention, the economics of raisin production become unsustainable.

At the same time, local authorities are stepping in with targeted structural support. Manisa’s metropolitan municipality is preparing to distribute 200,000 vineyard posts, worth around 50 million TRY, to roughly 5,000 producers. This measure aims to reduce growers’ capital burden and help maintain vineyard infrastructure, complementing national-level market support via TMO grape purchases. Together, these tools are designed to prevent large-scale uprooting and keep export capacity intact, even while on-farm profitability is under heavy pressure.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Weather during the growing and drying period in the Aegean region has generally been favourable, with no major disease or frost shocks reported for the current crop. International assessments indicate that Türkiye’s grape conditions this season allowed production estimates to be revised upward, reinforcing the oversupply narrative in Manisa.

In parallel, local grape markets in Sarıgöl and surrounding districts report that a large share of the 2026 crop remains unharvested or unsold in November, as growers wait for better prices and more active buyers. This suggests that physical availability for raisin processors is ample, but procurement is paced cautiously in line with slow demand and storage constraints, adding to short‑term downward pressure on farmgate prices.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Importers / packers: Current Turkish sultana prices in EUR/kg are attractive relative to competing origins and show no upward momentum. Gradual coverage for Q1–Q2 2027 looks reasonable, with some flexibility to add on dips should local currency weakness or continued oversupply translate into further offers.
• Growers / cooperatives in Manisa: With vineyard economics under strain, continued engagement with TMO and municipal programs will be crucial. Where storage and finance permit, spreading sales over time rather than accepting the lowest spot bids may help capture any later improvement from export demand or policy moves.
• Traders: The near-term bias in Turkish conventional sultanas is sideways to slightly soft in EUR, given strong supply and only moderate demand. Quality and origin spreads (e.g. organic vs conventional, Turkish vs Chinese or Indian raisins) are likely to remain wide, offering opportunities for origin switching and product mix optimisation rather than outright price speculation.

Over the next three trading days, Turkish FOB Malatya sultana prices around EUR 1.71–1.82/kg and CIF Malatya RTU offers at EUR 1.79/kg are expected to remain broadly stable, with only limited downside as long as export demand continues at its current pace and no abrupt policy changes occur.