Turkish Raisin Prices Slide as New Crop Pressure Builds

Turkish raisin prices have softened sharply over the past week as the new sultana crop hits the market and grower bargaining power weakens, while EU warehouse values remain broadly steady. Larger Turkish availability and quality concerns in rival origins keep Turkey competitive despite the price correction. Ample new-crop supply from Türkiye is meeting price-sensitive demand in Europe, encouraging buyers to shift coverage back to Turkish sultanas. Market reports highlight a significantly larger Turkish crop versus recent frost‑affected seasons, combined with still-sluggish Chinese raisin trade flows, which channels more demand to Türkiye. In Malatya and EU logistics hubs, recent indications show a clear downward adjustment in FOB and CIF offers compared with late September, while upstream fresh Sultaniye grape prices in Malatya remain firm in local currency, underlining the margin squeeze for processors.

Prices

Turkish export quotations have corrected noticeably since 15 October. Malatya sultanas, type 10, grade A, are now indicated at EUR 1.823 FOB, down from EUR 2.325, while type 8, grade A, is at EUR 1.712 FOB versus EUR 2.10. Type 9, grade A, fell to EUR 1.734 FOB from EUR 2.125 over the same period. RTU type 9 CIF offers eased to EUR 1.79 from EUR 2.20. Organic type 9 remains at a premium at EUR 3.10 FOB but has not moved in recent days.

Outside Türkiye, EU warehouse prices are broadly stable: Turkish origin type 9 RTU in Dordrecht is quoted at EUR 2.90 FCA, Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU in Hamburg around EUR 1.751 FCA, and Chilean flame jumbo at EUR 2.50 FCA. Indian New Delhi FOB indications are flat, with golden grade AA at EUR 2.58, brown grade AA at EUR 1.99 and black grade AA at EUR 1.95. Indian Malayar bird‑feed grade trades near EUR 1.03 FOB. European feed‑grade raisins of African origin in Dordrecht are quoted at EUR 1.92 FCA.

Supply & Demand

Recent market commentary indicates that the 2026/27 Turkish sultana crop is significantly larger than recent frost‑hit seasons, restoring Türkiye’s role as the key global supplier and drawing buyers back from China. Export pace data from late September already showed year‑on‑year gains despite falling average prices, underlining that demand is driven by competitiveness rather than scarcity.

In China, the sultana/raisin market is described as slow, with a notable gap between farmer and buyer price expectations, limiting export offers and supporting the shift towards Turkish origin. Fresh Sultaniye grape prices in Malatya wholesale markets remain relatively firm in Turkish lira terms, suggesting that raw material is not distressed even as export raisin quotations in euros decline, compressing processor margins.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (TR)

Weather is no longer a major yield driver for the current Turkish raisin crop, as harvest is largely completed in the key Aegean vineyards. For Malatya, a secondary hub for dried fruit logistics and processing, short‑term forecasts point to mild, mostly dry autumn conditions with daytime highs around 15–17°C and cool nights in the single digits over 20–23 October, followed by some light rain events later in the month.

These conditions are broadly favourable for drying, storage and transport logistics, though heavier rain episodes projected towards the last week of October could temporarily slow handling and on‑farm operations. Overall, near‑term weather in Türkiye is neutral to slightly supportive for maintaining quality of the dried fruit pipeline rather than being a fresh bullish driver for prices.

Fundamentals & Price Drivers

• Larger Turkish crop: Early indications of a significantly bigger Turkish raisin crop versus prior frost‑reduced seasons are pressuring prices despite robust export volumes.
• Competitive edge vs. China: Slow Chinese trade and a wide farmer–buyer price gap keep Chinese export participation limited, reinforcing Turkey’s role as the main supplier into Europe and the Middle East.
• Quality differential: Residue and quality concerns in some competing origins maintain a quality premium for Turkish product, even as nominal prices fall.
• Currency and local markets: Firm fresh Sultaniye grape prices in local currency, alongside weaker EUR export quotations, point to margin compression at processor level rather than outright oversupply at farm gate.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (importers/packers): Use the current Turkish price dip to extend coverage into Q1 2027, focusing on Malatya FOB type 8–10 A grades and selectively on RTU CIF parcels where logistics fit. Avoid chasing the lowest‑grade offers; the Turkish quality advantage still justifies a moderate premium.
• Turkish exporters/packers: With prices already sharply lower month‑on‑month, further aggressive discounting risks locking in unsustainably low margins. Prioritise forward contracts and mixed‑origin programmes (e.g. Turkish premium plus Chinese standard) to stabilise utilisation.
• Industrial users (bakery, cereal, confectionery): Consider substituting a portion of higher‑priced EU warehouse stock with freshly contracted Malatya FOB volumes, capturing the recent down‑move while maintaining quality through tight specification control.

3‑Day Directional View (key TR‑linked references)

• Malatya Turkish sultanas FOB (types 8–10): Bias: sideways to slightly softer over the next 3 days as sellers adjust to the new, lower price band and export demand remains price‑driven rather than urgent.
• Turkish origin RTU raisins FCA Dordrecht: Bias: broadly steady; EU stockists are not under pressure to discount further in the very short term.
• Indian FOB New Delhi grades (golden/brown/black): Bias: stable; local fundamentals show no immediate catalyst for price moves within the next few days.