Turkish Raisins Under Pressure as High Crop Meets Weak Demand

Raisin prices are currently flat despite a large Turkish crop and rising competitive pressure from China, leaving growers squeezed by low raw material prices and delayed government payments. The global raisin market is calm on the price side but tense fundamentally. Turkish exporters face a heavy crop that must be placed into increasingly price-sensitive destinations, while cheaper Chinese offers erode competitiveness in key markets. At the same time, slow domestic demand and outstanding payments from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) for October purchases are straining farmer liquidity. Incoming heavy rainfall and below-seasonal temperatures raise short‑term quality and logistics risks but are not yet altering the overall supply picture.

Prices

Export quotations for Turkish sultanas have stabilized after the sharp downward adjustment in mid-October. Current Turkish offers from Malatya show:

• Raisins, sultanas type 9, grade RTU, origin TR, Malatya, CIF: 1.79 EUR/kg (stable vs. last quote).
• Raisins, sultanas type 9, grade A, origin TR, Malatya, FOB: 1.734 EUR/kg (unchanged).
• Raisins, sultanas type 8, grade A, origin TR, Malatya, FOB: 1.712 EUR/kg (unchanged).
• Raisins, sultanas type 10, grade A, origin TR, Malatya, FOB: 1.823 EUR/kg (unchanged).
• Raisins, sultanas type 9, grade A, organic, origin TR, Malatya, FOB: 3.10 EUR/kg (unchanged).

This confirms a period of price stagnation following previous declines, reflecting a market where abundant supply meets only moderate demand and stronger competition from lower-priced origins.

Supply & Demand

The Turkish raisin sector is dealing with a high harvest this season, which significantly increases export availability. However, the established importer base alone is not sufficient to absorb the surplus, forcing exporters to look for new markets and more aggressive sales strategies. At the same time, cheaper raisins from competing origins—particularly China—are putting pressure on Turkish exporters in traditional destinations.

On the demand side, the domestic Turkish market remains sluggish, offering little relief. The combination of high supply and only moderate buying interest limits any short‑term upside for prices. Instead, buyers are taking a wait‑and‑see approach, aware that farmer liquidity stress and strong competition may unlock additional seller interest at current levels.

Fundamentals & Farmer Situation

Farmers are dissatisfied with current raw material prices, which have not followed the full cost structure of production and drying. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has not yet paid for raisins purchased in October, delaying crucial cash inflows. This is tightening liquidity in producing regions and undermining producer confidence ahead of the marketing season.

In the short term, farmers’ financial stress may increase the need to sell, reinforcing the sideways-to-weak tone in raw material values. Over a longer horizon, persistent dissatisfaction could translate into lower investment in vineyards and quality, but such effects will become visible only over coming seasons. For now, structural oversupply and tight producer cash flow are the dominant features of the market balance.

Weather & Quality Outlook

Heavy rainfall is expected this week in key Turkish raisin regions, and temperatures are forecast to fall below seasonal norms. Local farmers have been warned accordingly. Short‑term weather risks include slower drying and potential quality downgrades for any remaining fruit exposed to humidity, as well as delays in on‑farm and inland logistics.

In Malatya, the next three days point to unsettled conditions: scattered thundershowers, followed by cooler, cloudy weather with periods of rain and drizzle and daytime highs easing from the high‑teens down towards low‑teens Celsius. While most of the main crop is already in storage, these conditions may still affect handling and may reinforce cautious buying and selling behavior in the domestic chain.

Trading Outlook

• For importers/industrial users: Current Turkish sultana prices are flat and relatively attractive versus historical levels. Consider covering near‑term needs gradually at today’s quotations, while leaving room for possible additional downside if farmer selling intensifies.
• For exporters: The priority is market diversification and competitive positioning against Chinese supplies. Flexible pricing and tailored quality/contract terms may be necessary to secure business without triggering a renewed price slide.
• For farmers: With liquidity already strained due to delayed TMO payments, avoid panic selling where possible. Coordinated marketing and storage strategies can help prevent further erosion of farm‑gate prices in an already oversupplied environment.

3‑Day Market Direction

Given high stocks, weak domestic demand and ongoing competition from cheaper origins, the raisin market is expected to remain largely range‑bound in the very short term, with a mild downward bias if farmer selling picks up under financial pressure.