Raisin market update: Turkish sultanas reset lower on 2026 crop offers, while Chinese and Indian raisin prices remain stable. Key price levels, drivers and outlook.
Prices
Fresh supplier offers for Turkish sultanas of the 2026 harvest point to notably lower export ideas. Based on DAP Germany offers of 1.885 EUR/kg for type 9 RTU and 2.085 EUR/kg for type 10 Jumbo RTU, inferred FOB Turkey indications are around 1.76 EUR/kg for type 9 RTU and 1.96 EUR/kg for type 10 Jumbo RTU. These back‑calculated levels sit roughly 14–15% below previously circulated FOB references and suggest that earlier benchmarks no longer reflect the most competitive offers some exporters are prepared to show.
In contrast, current spot quotations in Europe and origin show a steadier picture outside Turkey. Chinese sultanas, type 9 RTU grade STD, are indicated at 1.751 EUR/kg FCA Hamburg (latest update 14 October 2026), virtually flat over recent weeks. Indian raisins remain unchanged at 1.99 EUR/kg FOB New Delhi for brown grade AA and 2.58 EUR/kg FOB New Delhi for golden grade AA, while Chilean flame jumbo holds at 2.5 EUR/kg FCA Dordrecht. Standard Turkish sultanas, type 9 grade A, last assessed at 2.075 EUR/kg FOB Malatya, therefore look rich versus the newly inferred 2026‑crop indications, underlining a widening gap between legacy references and aggressive private offers.
| Product | Origin / Location | Delivery terms | Latest price (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raisins, sultanas, type 9, RTU grade STD | CN / Hamburg | FCA | 1.751 |
| Raisins, sultanas, type 9, grade A | TR / Malatya | FOB | 2.075 |
| Raisins, golden, grade AA | IN / New Delhi | FOB | 2.58 |
| Raisins, brown, grade AA | IN / New Delhi | FOB | 1.99 |
Supply & Demand
Turkey remains the pivotal supplier in the global raisin and sultana complex, and recent analysis highlights that the country’s exports are accelerating into the 2026/27 season after last year’s frost‑hit short crop and constrained shipments. With no acute weather shock currently reported in the main seedless raisin areas and harvest already well progressed, exporters are increasingly focused on regaining volume and market share through price rather than being constrained by availability.
External competition, however, is non‑negligible. Chinese producers are maintaining a steady export pipeline of green and dark raisins, keeping their offers into Europe and Asia competitive and capping Turkey’s ability to move prices back up quickly. Indian origins continue to serve both snack and ingredient demand with stable FOB values, while feed‑grade material from Africa around 1.92 EUR/kg FCA in the Netherlands offers a floor for industrial buyers with flexible quality requirements. On the demand side, confectionery and bakery users in Europe are cautious but steady, favoring opportunistic top‑ups when origin spreads widen.
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Fundamentals & Weather
Recent reports indicate that Turkish raisin exports have strengthened as the new crop moves into commercial channels, with official payment programs supporting farm liquidity and tempering the risk of disorderly discounting. Earlier in the season, a base price announcement by a major cooperative was seen as underwhelming by growers and left the market in limbo while traders awaited clearer state policy signals. The latest private offers now suggest that, at least for some exporters, market reality is pushing FOB ideas well below last season’s peaks.
Weather in Turkey’s Aegean and Malatya raisin regions has turned more autumnal, with periods of showers and cooler temperatures after a wetter‑than‑usual start to October, but there is currently no indication of a fresh weather shock affecting dried grape availability. Drying is somewhat slower than in ideal years, yet the bulk of 2026 fruit is already secured, so near‑term fundamentals are more about export pacing and currency dynamics than about yield risk. Globally, total raisin/sultana production remains below some previous bumper years, increasing the importance of Turkish volumes for balancing world demand.
Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Short‑term price bias: With new Turkish export indications about 14–15% below legacy FOB benchmarks and competing origins still firm but stable, the near‑term bias for standard sultanas is sideways to slightly softer as buyers test exporters’ willingness to trade at these lower levels.
- For European industrial buyers: Consider layering in additional Q4–Q1 coverage on Turkish type 9 RTU and type 10 Jumbo if you can secure prices close to the newly indicated FOB levels, while keeping some flexibility to switch into Chinese supply should Turkey attempt to lift offers later in the season.
- For importers and packers: Monitor the spread between Chinese FCA Hamburg and Turkish FOB plus freight; if the inferred Turkish FOB 2026‑crop levels translate into a clear landed discount versus Chinese material, there is room to rebuild stocks without chasing the market higher.
- For origin‑side sellers: Given firmer export momentum and improved farm liquidity, avoid over‑aggressive undercutting on higher grades and organic sultanas; focus discounts on standard RTU material to defend volume while preserving premiums where demand is more inelastic.
3‑Day Directional Price View
- Turkey (FOB Malatya sultanas): Largely stable over the next three trading days, with a mild downward bias as some exporters adjust lists closer to the latest inferred 2026‑crop indications.
- Europe (FCA Hamburg/Dordrecht raisins): Sideways; Chinese and Chilean offers expected to hold current EUR levels, with only marginal discounting possible on spot parcels.
- India (FOB New Delhi raisins): Stable; no immediate catalyst for price movement in the very short term, with exporters focused on routine contract execution.