Yemen’s Mango Boom Meets Firm Dried Mango Prices in Asia
Yemen’s Tihama mango exports surge 379% as Vietnam and Thailand hold firm dried mango prices. Outlook for fresh and processed mango markets in 2026.
Prices
Quoted dried mango prices in EUR show a stable to slightly firm market over the past month:
| Product | Origin | Location / Term | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | 1‑week Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mango dried – chunks 2–3 cm, moisture 13–19% | Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | 5.6 | Flat vs. 5.6 |
| Mango dried – slices 5–9 cm / chunks 2–3 cm | Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | 5.8 | Flat vs. 5.8 |
| Mango dried – normal sugar, 8–10 mm | Thailand | Dordrecht, FCA | 4.6 | Flat vs. 4.6 |
Compared with late September, Vietnamese FOB prices have eased only marginally and then stabilized, while Thai dried mango in the Netherlands has also moved slightly lower before holding steady. This confirms a firm but not overheated processed mango market, consistent with reports that strong demand is being met by adequate supply from Southeast Asia.
Supply & Demand
Mango exports from Yemen’s Tihama region have expanded rapidly, rising from 24,994 tonnes in 2020–21 to about 119,682 tonnes in 2025–26, a 379% increase. Over the same period, export value jumped roughly 535%, from 4 billion to 25.4 billion Yemeni riyals, underlining both higher volumes and improved unit returns.
Mangoes now account for around 67.5% of Tihama’s total agricultural export value, ahead of other fruits such as watermelon (25,099 tonnes in 2025–26, versus 9,200 tonnes a year earlier and 4,630 tonnes in 2020–21) and cantaloupe (7,069 tonnes). Regional authorities link this growth to higher production, stronger international demand and smoother export procedures, in line with the broader global trend of rising mango trade and consumption.
On the demand side, the United States, the EU and China remain the core drivers of fresh and processed mango imports, with 2025 global imports of mangoes, mangosteens and guavas estimated at around 2.6 million tonnes. Consumer interest in mango as a healthy snack supports stable demand for dried products, particularly from Asia’s large snack segment.
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Fundamentals & Infrastructure
The sharp rise in Tihama’s mango exports is underpinned by both production gains and export‑chain improvements. Planned investments include three packaging and cold‑storage centres, upgrades to logistics at the Port of Hodeidah, and efforts to deepen access to East Asian and European markets. These measures should reduce post‑harvest losses, extend the marketing window and support higher quality grades.
However, institutional constraints remain a risk. Earlier in 2026, export and harvest controls in parts of Yemen, including the Tihama coastal plain, created marketing bottlenecks and periods of crop backlog, highlighting the importance of predictable regulation and efficient port operations for sustaining export growth.
In the processed segment, Vietnam and Thailand continue to leverage established orchards, drying capacity and certifications to serve global dried mango demand. Stable EUR prices for Vietnamese FOB and Thai FCA lots indicate that current supply is broadly in balance with demand, while incremental global export growth (projected at 2–3% year‑on‑year for major mango exporters) absorbs new origins without triggering oversupply.
Weather & Crop Conditions
In Yemen’s Tihama belt around Hodeidah, October 2026 weather is hot and mostly dry, with forecast daily highs between roughly 93°F and 103°F and lows around 75–84°F. These conditions are typical for late post‑harvest and are more relevant for tree recovery and flowering timing than for the recently exported 2025–26 crop.
Globally, weather risks remain concentrated in Latin America and Southeast Asia, where earlier seasons saw heat and rainfall anomalies that affected flowering and fruit set in some origins. For now, there is no clear signal of acute new weather stress in the main dried mango processing hubs that would justify a sharp price re‑rating in the immediate term, though El Niño/La Niña developments remain a watchpoint.
Outlook & Trading Strategy
Market outlook (3–6 months)
- Fresh mango exports from Yemen’s Tihama region are likely to remain on a rising trend, assuming continued logistical improvements and no major disruption to port operations or security.
- Dried mango prices from Vietnam and Thailand are expected to stay broadly firm but range‑bound, supported by strong snack demand and disciplined capacity expansion.
- Investments in grading, cold storage, packaging and transport in Tihama should gradually lower post‑harvest losses and may create future feedstock for regional processing if capital and technical know‑how become available.
Trading recommendations
- Buyers of dried mango: Consider locking in a portion of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs at current EUR levels (5.6–5.8 FOB Vietnam; 4.6 FCA Netherlands for Thai origin) to secure supply, while keeping some volume open to benefit if new crop pressure emerges.
- Exporters in Yemen: Prioritise investment and partnerships in cold chain, standardized grading and packaging to maintain quality and capture premiums in East Asian and European markets.
- Processors and traders: Monitor regulatory developments and logistics performance in Yemen’s Tihama and competing origins; any disruption in a fast‑growing origin can quickly tighten regional availability for both fresh and industrial buyers.
Short 3‑day directional view (dried mango)
- Vietnam, FOB Hanoi (dried mango slices & chunks): Stable; prices seen holding around recent EUR indications with limited near‑term catalysts.
- Thailand, FCA Dordrecht (dried mango, normal sugar): Stable to slightly firm on steady demand and no immediate sign of additional spot supply.
- Fresh mango from emerging origins (incl. Yemen’s Tihama): Off‑season for the main 2025–26 export surge; no sharp short‑term price moves expected, focus shifts to logistics and contract execution.