Cinnamon Prices Edge Higher in India and Vietnam on Firm Cassia Demand

Indian and Vietnamese cinnamon prices are inching higher, with modest week‑on‑week gains across both cassia and Ceylon grades. The tone is firmer but not overheated, supported by steady export interest from India and a resilient cassia pipeline from Vietnam. A tight but orderly spot market defines late September. In India, FOB New Delhi quotations for organic cassia and Ceylon grades are edging up in contrast to typically weak seasonal mandi levels, suggesting exporters are paying up for quality material despite softer domestic spot trends. In Vietnam, cassia benchmarks out of Hanoi are also firming, with key northern growing areas under seasonally wet but non‑disruptive monsoon conditions that support harvest and drying. Cross‑border demand remains underpinned by India’s role as both consumer and re‑exporter, even as official data show spices exports (including cinnamon) lower year‑on‑year in Q1 2026.

Prices

FOB quotations as of 26 September 2026 show a synchronized but gradual uptrend in both origins. Indian organic cassia and Ceylon grades in New Delhi and Vietnamese cassia grades in Hanoi have all gained around EUR 0.05 since 19 September, confirming a firm undertone rather than a one‑off spike.

Indian domestic mandi prices for cinnamon (dalchini) are seasonally soft in September, which is typically one of the weakest months of the year. The current firmness in FOB New Delhi therefore reflects export‑driven support and the premium for organic and Ceylon qualities rather than local retail demand.

Supply & Demand

On the demand side, recent shipment data indicate that India maintains an active export pipeline for cinnamon and cinnamon extract (HS 0906), with several hundred export consignments registered globally and a broad buyer base. Nevertheless, official figures for Q1 of the 2026–27 fiscal year show total Indian spices exports down about 25% year‑on‑year, while the sub‑group including cinnamon and cassia is down around 11% in volume.

This configuration points to cinnamon being cushioned by its higher value niche even as overall spices exports soften. Earlier September commentary already noted steady Indian Ceylon and flat Vietnam cassia FOB values, with India remaining a key buyer of Vietnamese cassia. The latest incremental EUR gains now confirm buyers are willing to pay slightly higher differentials to secure origin‑certified and organic lots ahead of year‑end demand.

Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, VN)

In India, cinnamon and Ceylon production zones overlap with parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which are influenced by the southwest monsoon from June to September. National rainfall tracking shows cumulative monsoon precipitation near to moderately below normal up to 24 September 2026, without evidence of extreme deficits in the southern coastal belt. No major weather alerts specific to cinnamon‑growing districts have been issued in the past few days.

In northern Vietnam, key cassia areas such as Yên Bái and Lào Cai are experiencing typical late‑September conditions with hot, humid days and frequent showers under the rainy season pattern. Forecasts around 25–27 September point to continued scattered rain but no significant storm systems, suggesting that harvesting and primary drying may see only short‑lived interruptions. This supports a stable near‑term supply outlook from Vietnam.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Export flows: India’s cinnamon and extract exports remain diversified across more than 200 overseas buyers, signalling broad market access even as aggregate spices exports face a downturn.
• Origin differentiation: Organic cassia and Ceylon from India continue to command a strong premium over conventional Vietnamese cassia splits and broken grades, reflected in more than double FOB price levels in EUR terms.
• Seasonality: Domestic Indian prices typically bottom in September, yet FOB levels are firming, underscoring the role of export demand and limited high‑quality stocks.
• Weather: Monsoon and rainy‑season conditions in India and Vietnam are broadly within seasonal norms, with no fresh reports of flooding or prolonged drought in the last three days that would immediately constrain supply.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

Key Recommendations

• Importers / industrial buyers: Consider covering short‑term needs now for organic and Ceylon grades, as the current EUR 0.05 step‑up still represents a gradual move and further small increments are likely if export flows stay firm.
• Origin sellers (India, Vietnam): Use the firmer tone to lock in forward sales on premium grades, but avoid aggressive offers on lower‑grade Vietnamese broken and split, where buyer resistance may emerge if prices rise too quickly.
• Traders: The narrow, steady uptrend favours carry‑type positions rather than speculative longs; watch for any shift in Indian spices export volumes or new weather disruptions in northern Vietnam as catalysts.

3‑Day Regional Directional View (27–29 September 2026)

• India – FOB New Delhi (organic cassia & Ceylon): Bias mildly firmer; tight exportable stocks and active enquiries suggest a stable‑to‑higher range, with intraday moves expected to stay incremental.
• Vietnam – FOB Hanoi (cassia split, cigarette, broken): Tone steady to slightly firmer; seasonal rains but no major weather shocks support continuous flow, with modest upside driven by Indian and regional demand.