Vietnam Cassia Cinnamon Prices Edge Higher as Exports Stay Firm

Vietnamese cassia cinnamon prices are edging higher, with modest gains across cigarette, broken and split grades in Hanoi, supported by resilient export demand and only limited near-term weather risk in key northern growing areas. In the broader market, Vietnam’s cinnamon exports have risen in both volume and value in 2026, with Asia still dominant but the Americas growing strongly as buyers seek diversified origins and competitive cassia offers. Recent rains across northern Vietnam are not yet threatening supply, but they could briefly slow farm operations and logistics in the coming days, while heavy downpours are focused more on central regions. Against this backdrop, exporters are holding slightly firmer offers, while buyers weigh the risk of further gradual price appreciation against comfortable stocks and competitive supplies from India and Sri Lanka.

Prices

FOB quotations (EUR):

Across the past three weeks, Vietnamese cassia cigarette and split grades have risen by around 0.08–0.13 EUR/kg, while broken gained about 0.05 EUR/kg, confirming a slow but persistent firming trend in FOB Hanoi offers. Indian cassia and Ceylon grades in New Delhi show a similar incremental pattern, with 0.12 EUR/kg increases versus mid-October on organic powders and sticks, reflecting broadly supportive global demand and steady replacement costs.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam’s spice trade data for the first nine months of 2026 show cinnamon as one of the few spice segments where both export volumes and export value have risen, underscoring solid global demand for Vietnamese cassia despite price headwinds in other spices. Asia remains the primary outlet, taking roughly two-thirds of Vietnam’s cinnamon exports, although Asian volumes have dipped modestly year-on-year, hinting at some demand normalization in regional markets.

At the same time, recent export statistics highlight strong diversification towards the Americas, with Vietnam’s cassia shipments to that region growing by over 30% year-on-year and the US consolidating its role as a key destination. This shift spreads demand risk away from a single region and supports exporters’ willingness to hold offers slightly firmer, particularly for higher-quality cigarette and split grades. Further afield, Sri Lanka’s Ceylon cinnamon prices and broader export-crop indices remain elevated, keeping true-cinnamon quotations at a premium to cassia and indirectly underpinning cassia’s relative competitiveness.

Weather & Crop Conditions (VN Focus)

In northern Vietnam’s key cassia-growing areas, including Lao Cai province in the northwest, short-term forecasts call for continued showers through 9 November, followed by improving, sunnier conditions from 10 November onward. Daily temperatures are expected to remain moderate, typically in the low-to-mid 20s °C, which is seasonally normal for early November and not particularly stressful for cassia trees.

More intense rainfall is forecast for central Vietnam starting around 9 November, with heavy downpours and storms likely to affect coastal and upland areas, but these zones are less central to the core Saigon cinnamon belt. In the Central Highlands, a mix of light to moderate rain and occasional heavier showers is projected over the next week, accompanied by stronger winds on 9–10 November. Overall, the 3–5 day outlook suggests some temporary disruption to field work and inland transport, but no immediate large-scale threat to cassia yields or quality.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Export-led support: Rising 2026 cinnamon export volumes and values from Vietnam point to fundamentally firm underlying demand, even as some competing spices see weaker unit values.
• Origin diversification: Buyers are hedging supply risk by balancing cassia purchases from Vietnam with smaller volumes from India and high-value Ceylon cinnamon from Sri Lanka; this multi-origin sourcing keeps Vietnam competitive but caps aggressive price spikes.
• Quality and compliance pressures: Ongoing tightening of coumarin and heavy-metal standards in the EU and US continues to favor exporters capable of certifiable, traceable lots, nudging market share towards better-organized Vietnamese suppliers.
• Seasonal transition: Vietnam is now moving deeper into the cool, drier season in the north, when harvesting pressure eases and farmers become more selective in releasing stocks, particularly if they anticipate further price upside.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

In the next 1–2 weeks, the fundamental picture suggests modest upward bias for Vietnamese cassia, but with limited room for sharp moves given broadly adequate stocks and the absence of acute weather stress. Short-lived logistical delays are possible if heavy rains in central and highland regions spill over into inland transport routes, but for now, these are more of an operational than structural supply concern.

• Importers/roasters: Consider covering Q1–Q2 2027 needs on price dips or via staggered buying, especially for Hanoi FOB cigarette and split grades, as current levels still look competitive versus Ceylon and some Indian offers.
• Exporters in Vietnam: With exports and values trending higher, maintain firm offers on higher-quality grades while staying flexible on broken material to keep throughput and cash flow stable.
• Industrial users: Where specifications allow, review partial substitution of Ceylon with high-quality Vietnamese cassia to manage input costs, given the persistent premium on true cinnamon.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (FOB, Regional)

• Hanoi, Vietnam – cassia cigarette, broken, split: Stable to slightly firmer over the next three trading days, with limited upside tied to steady export interest and only minor weather-related disruption risk.
• New Delhi, India – cassia & Ceylon cinnamon (organic): Mostly stable with a mild upward bias, reflecting firm global demand but no fresh supply shock.