El complejo de girasol sube ligeramente mientras la oferta del mar Negro sigue ajustada

Los precios del aceite y la semilla de girasol en la región del mar Negro suben ligeramente, respaldados por la ajustada oferta ucraniana y unos mercados de semillas oleaginosas firmes en la UE, mientras que la demanda de productos desde Europa y Oriente Medio limita el potencial bajista. El complejo de girasol en Ucrania y alrededores se negocia en un patrón ligeramente alcista esta semana. El aceite crudo de girasol CPT Odesa ha repuntado, siguiendo la firmeza de los precios de los aceites vegetales en la UE y la persistente escasez de oferta de semilla en el mar Negro. Los granos de girasol descascarados de Ucrania también están subiendo, respaldados por una sólida demanda de la industria alimentaria y precios relativamente altos de semillas oleaginosas alternativas. Al mismo tiempo, los compradores de la UE han reducido las importaciones globales de semillas oleaginosas esta campaña, manteniendo una demanda spot selectiva y limitando un repunte más pronunciado. El tiempo cálido y mayormente seco en las principales regiones de girasol de Ucrania es actualmente favorable para el desarrollo del cultivo, pero requerirá un estrecho seguimiento de la humedad a finales de junio.

Prices

All prices below are converted to EUR/tonne for comparability (approximate FX).

EU reference sunflower oil values are also firm, with EU-27 sunflower oil around 1,265 EUR/t in May and spot oilseed indicators near 409 EUR/t as of 7 June, underlining the constructive tone for Black Sea-origin oil.

Supply & Demand

Ukraine remains the key driver for regional sunflower oil supply. Despite a competitive squeeze from Russia, Argentina and Turkey, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports surged to 427,000 t in March and 442,000 t in April, the highest since June 2025, with flows concentrated on the EU and Middle East. High export activity has tightened domestic seed availability and helped support CPT/FOB indications in Odesa and inland FCA prices.

On the demand side, the EU has reduced overall imports of oilseeds and derived products this marketing year, with vegetable oil imports down about 8% and sunflower oil specifically down 23% year-on-year to 1.58 mln t by late April. This structural softening in EU buying tempers upside for Ukrainian sellers, forcing them to stay competitive versus Russian-origin oil and South American offers. Nonetheless, elevated prices for alternative oils and meals in the EU keep a solid baseline of demand for Ukrainian sunflower oil and kernels.

Fundamentals & Weather

Regionally, the Black Sea–Danube–Balkan oilseed balance remains tight after a smaller 2025 sunflower crop, especially in Ukraine and Russia, while Turkey has turned into an active seed and oil buyer. This underpins seed and oil prices across Ukraine, Bulgaria and neighbouring exporters. Processors in Ukraine face narrowed crushing margins as raw seed costs rise faster than finished oil prices, prompting some plants to switch to rapeseed and soybeans or briefly idle capacity, which in turn constrains spot oil supply.

Weather in key Ukrainian sunflower regions, including Odesa oblast, is currently warm with temperatures in the upper 20s °C, slightly above the seasonal norm, and mostly dry with strong sunshine and high UV indices expected over the next several days. Conditions are generally favourable for early vegetative growth but may start to stress moisture-sensitive areas if rainfall remains limited through late June, which would be mildly supportive for seed and oil prices.

Short-Term Outlook (3–5 days)

• Crude sunflower oil CPT Odesa (UA): With export demand steady and EU benchmark prices firm, near-term pricing is biased slightly upward in a range of roughly +5–10 EUR/t, assuming logistics remain stable.
• Sunflower seeds FCA Kyiv/Odesa (UA): Limited farmer selling and supportive weather fundamentals point to a steady-to-firm market, with bids likely to hold or gain a few EUR/t as crushers compete for available seed.
• Hulled kernels FCA Dnipro (UA): Food-industry and export demand should keep prices on a gently rising path, with a modest premium versus early June likely to persist.

Trading Recommendations

• Crushers in Ukraine: Consider locking in a portion of seed coverage at current flat-to-firm levels; upside risk from weather and tight regional balance outweighs significant downside in the very short term.
• EU refiners and food buyers: Use current Ukrainian oil offers to extend coverage into late summer, but keep some flexibility given softer overall EU oilseed import trends and competition from Russian and Argentine origins.
• Kernel buyers (EU/MENA): Given rising hulled kernel values in both Ukraine and Bulgaria, stagger purchases and avoid excessive spot exposure, as warm, dry weather could add further support if crop prospects deteriorate.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (UA focus)

• Odesa – crude sunflower oil CPT: Slightly higher/firm.
• Odesa/Kyiv – sunflower seeds FCA: Mostly stable, with a mild upward bias.
• Dnipro – hulled kernels FCA: Firm to modestly higher on steady export and food demand.