Turkish Dried Apricots: Big Crop, Flat Prices and Frustrated Sellers

Export prices for dried apricots are holding steady despite a strong Malatya harvest, leaving both farmers and exporters dissatisfied. After last season’s extreme shortage and record local prices, the 2026 crop recovery has pushed farm-gate values down by roughly half, but this relief has not translated into improved margins along the chain. The market is now characterized by abundant raw material, cautious producer selling and export volumes that are improving but still failing to lift prices. Buyers benefit from stability, yet origin sentiment is clearly negative. With stocks rebuilding in Malatya and neighboring hubs, the near-term outlook points to continued sideways pricing unless weather or currency shocks change the balance.

Prices

Export prices for Turkish dried apricots are described as stable. Despite a partial increase in export volumes, there has been effectively no price reaction along the FOB chain, reinforcing the perception of a flat market at origin.

Current indicative quotations from Malatya confirm this sideways pattern: conventional unsulphured No. 2 is at 8.2 EUR FOB TR Malatya, unsulphured No. 1 at 8.3 EUR FOB TR Malatya, and organic unsulphured No. 1 at 9.2 EUR FOB TR Malatya. Sulphured whole apricots range from 5.8 EUR to 7.3 EUR FOB TR for sizes 8 to 1, respectively.

In Europe, warehoused product mirrors the same tone. Recent FCA NL Dordrecht levels cluster around 6.05–7.10 EUR for conventional whole apricots from size No. 8 up to No. 0, with cubes around 3.85 EUR FCA NL. Week-on-week and month-on-month changes are marginal, underlining the lack of fresh bullish or bearish impulses.

Supply & Demand

This season’s abundant harvest in Malatya has structurally shifted the market from last year’s acute shortage to a situation of comfortable supply. Whereas 2025’s frost-hit crop forced prices to exceptional highs at origin, the 2026 crop has been strong enough to bring local price levels back down to roughly half of last year’s TRY peaks.

However, the improved availability has not translated into producer satisfaction. Many farmers, faced with sharply lower returns than the 1,200 TRY/kg levels seen during the shortage, are now reluctant to sell. This withholding behavior partially offsets the large crop and slows the pace at which raw material moves into export channels.

On the demand side, export volumes have increased compared with last season’s constrained flows, reflecting buyers’ willingness to rebuild coverage at more attractive price levels. Yet this additional demand has so far only stabilized, not lifted, prices. Global consumption of dried apricots remains structurally healthy, but buyers appear in no hurry, expecting origin to remain under pressure as the big crop is progressively marketed.

Fundamentals & Producer Sentiment

The key fundamental shift is the reversal from shortage to abundance. Last year’s absence of product pushed Malatya apricot prices to extreme levels in Turkish lira terms, with reports of individual fruits changing hands near 20 TRY. This created very high expectations among growers for subsequent seasons.

With the 2026 harvest now ample, these expectations have been sharply corrected. Farmers are facing roughly half last year’s price levels, while input costs remain elevated, squeezing margins. As a result, many producers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, holding stocks in the hope of future appreciation rather than selling aggressively at current bids.

Exporters are equally dissatisfied. While higher volumes should be supportive, the lack of upward price response suggests intense competition among origins and between exporters themselves. Margins are compressed, and the market feels directionless: too much supply to justify a rally, but not enough selling pressure to trigger a significant further decline.

Weather & Crop Context

The current bearish undertone in producer sentiment needs to be seen against the backdrop of last year’s frost-driven disaster in Malatya, which drastically reduced output and sent prices soaring. This season, by contrast, orchards have delivered a much more normal, product-rich harvest across the region.

So far there are no major weather threats reported for the dried-apricot inventory already in store. Medium-term risk will mainly hinge on storage conditions and the quality of later-harvested fruit rather than on field weather. With no immediate climate shock on the horizon, the supply side is likely to remain comfortable through the coming months.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

The near-term outlook for Turkish dried apricots is one of continued price stability with a slight downward bias if farmer selling accelerates. Unless a new weather issue arises or currency volatility sharply changes Turkish export parity, the market is likely to trade in a relatively narrow band around current levels.

• Importers/industrial users: Consider layering in coverage on a staggered basis at today’s stable FOB and FCA levels, focusing on key sizes (No. 2–4) where availability is ample and premiums are moderate.
• Retail packers: Use the current lull to negotiate longer-term contracts, but keep some volume uncommitted in case producer resistance tightens spot supply later in the season.
• Producers: Evaluate storage costs and quality risks before holding back large volumes; a slow, disciplined selling program may perform better than speculative stockpiling in an otherwise well-supplied market.

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