Turkish Dried Apricots Ease but Growers Stay Firm as Demand Lags

Prices for Turkish dried apricots are edging slightly lower along the size curve in Europe, but overall levels remain historically firm as Turkish growers resist deeper discounts despite sluggish demand. Short-term volatility looks limited, with only modest downside for standard sulphured grades and stable undertones for higher-value unsulphured and organic fruit. The market is still digesting a structurally tight global supply picture after previous crop losses and minimal carryover, while Turkish exports in early season 2026/27 are running well above last year even as end‑user demand softens. Growers in Malatya and Ankara keep FOB offers close to recent benchmarks, counting on continued export flows and a lack of meaningful competition from other origins. Weather across Malatya is currently calm and seasonally cool, posing no fresh threat to the dried fruit pipeline over the next few days.

Prices

In Dordrecht (NL), FCA prices for Turkish dried apricots have softened marginally week‑on‑week. Size No. 8 now stands at 6.10 EUR/kg in mid-October, easing to 5.90 EUR/kg by October 31. Mid-sizes No. 6 and No. 5 eased from 6.55–6.60 EUR/kg to 6.40–6.45 EUR/kg over the same period, while large Size No. 0 slipped from 7.15 EUR/kg to 7.00 EUR/kg.

Cubes 8–10 mm eased from 3.90 EUR/kg at the start of the month to 3.75 EUR/kg at October’s end, signalling some pressure on industrial and ingredients demand. In Poland (Lodz), TR origin no:8, TR‑1123 holds at 4.60 EUR/kg FCA, indicating relatively better support in Eastern European distribution channels. FOB Malatya benchmarks for sulphured and unsulphured fruit remain broadly aligned with indicative export references around 8.0–8.2 EUR/kg for standard grades according to local market boards and trade commentary.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier of dried apricots, with Malatya Province providing the bulk of world production. Recent trade data and local market reports indicate that Turkish dried apricot exports in August–September 2026 exceeded last year’s volumes, even though buyers report lacklustre downstream demand, especially in Europe.

According to regional news and commodity‑exchange commentary from Malatya, grower asking prices in TRY remain firm, with wide bands between industrial and jumbo grades but no signs of distress selling. Earlier in the year, industry analyses highlighted very limited carryover stocks after prior frost‑damaged crops, meaning the current season still starts from a tight baseline despite better local production. This structural tightness helps explain why current EUR prices only edge down slowly even as export pipelines run smoothly.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Short‑term weather in Malatya is seasonally cool and mostly dry, with only scattered showers forecast over the coming days and no extreme events expected. At this post‑harvest stage, such conditions are broadly neutral for dried fruit supply: outdoor drying activities are largely completed, and the current weather mainly influences on‑farm handling and storage rather than yields.

Given that major weather risks like late spring frosts and harvest‑time storms have already passed, the main supply uncertainty now shifts to how remaining farm stocks are marketed and to any logistical disruptions, rather than to fresh weather‑related crop losses. Longer‑term, climate analyses continue to flag Malatya as vulnerable to late frosts, underlining the need for buyers to preserve diversified sourcing and safety stocks.

Market Fundamentals

Recent international and Turkish commentary underscores a divergence between firm producer sentiment and softer end‑user demand. Market reports describe demand for Turkish dried apricots as “waning” or “subdued”, yet note that growers are holding their ground on price, particularly for better grades. This is consistent with the modest, stepwise EUR declines seen in European FCA quotes across sizes rather than a sharp correction.

Turkish exchange statistics show that domestic trading ranges in Malatya span from low‑priced industrial lots to significantly higher jumbo and premium natural fruit, with average domestic prices still elevated relative to historical norms. External competition from other origins such as Central Asia remains limited in scale and cannot fully compensate if Turkish supply tightens again, which helps maintain a price floor for Turkish material in export markets.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

Trading recommendations (next 2–4 weeks)

• Buyers with Q4 and early‑Q1 coverage gaps may use the current mild softness in standard sizes (No. 4–8, sulphured) to secure partial coverage, as growers in Malatya show little inclination to offer deeper discounts.
• For premium unsulphured and organic grades, consider staggered purchases: fundamentals remain tight and upward corrections are possible if export demand rebounds or TRY weakens further, even if short‑term EUR levels appear stable.
• Industrial users relying on cubes and small sizes should watch demand indicators closely; if end‑market orders stay slow, additional minor price easing is possible, but structural supply tightness argues against waiting for large drops.

3‑day regional price indication

• TR FOB Malatya/Ankara – sulphured No. 6–8: expected broadly sideways around current EUR levels over the next three days, with only limited room for discounts as growers hold firm.
• TR FOB Malatya – unsulphured/organic grades: bias slightly firm; no immediate weather or supply trigger for lower offers, and exporters continue to target premiums over standard sulphured product.
• EU (NL, PL) FCA – processed/packed Turkish dried apricots: near‑term tone mildly soft but stabilising, with further moves likely to be incremental rather than sharp in the absence of a demand shock.